Bad beat or sheer bad luck?

TVSpice

Not me but on my table earlier tonight - quads beaten by quads.  What are the odds?

SPARTASC	Small blind		£0.02	£0.02	£2.35
JAC07	Big blind		£0.04	£0.06	£4.79
	Your hole cards	5 J
moorey4	Fold
TVSpice	Fold
shoskione	Call		£0.04	£0.10	£1.35
garner909	Fold
SPARTASC	Raise		£0.08	£0.18	£2.27
JAC07	Call		£0.06	£0.24	£4.73
shoskione	Call		£0.06	£0.30	£1.29
Flop
		Q Q A
SPARTASC	Check
JAC07	Check
shoskione	Check
Turn
		Q
SPARTASC	Check
JAC07	Bet		£0.08	£0.38	£4.65
shoskione	Call		£0.08	£0.46	£1.21
SPARTASC	Call		£0.08	£0.54	£2.19
River
		A
SPARTASC	Bet		£1.12	£1.66	£1.07
JAC07	Fold
shoskione	All-in		£1.21	£2.87	£0.00
SPARTASC	Call		£0.09	£2.96	£0.98
SPARTASC	Show	A A
shoskione	Show	Q 2
SPARTASC	Win	Four Aces	£2.73		£3.71

craigcu12

neither really all i can say is it's just very bad play by the AA and he was extra extra lucky to win at all

1 the min raise is very unlikely to get folds
2 check and check call on flop and turn he is clearly signalling weak hands
3 having shown all that sign of weakness, the is no way his opponent can have an A and the chance of him having that 4th Q is 2/52 and anything else will simply fold.

their was a one once happened and was shown on the TV channel live that one was when KKvs AA went all in pre flop was KAKxA

fishtales

Correct me if I am wrong, however isn't the chance from the perspective of the player holding of AA that the other players chance of holding the other Q 1/45, as they have 2 cards and there is the 5 street cards total 7 cards. 52-7 is 45 and there is only 1 queen left so 1/45.

Is this correct, just I thought that is how the calcs were done..?

craigcu12

guess I forgot about them 7 cards that are out. but it still will be2 in 45 that he has been drawn the final queen as we have 2 cards so that's 2 chances from a total of 45 cards.

but truthfully hand selection odds would be done based on his VPIP which I guess with him is atleast 80% to be calling with Q2o