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wrong to gamble?

jdsallstarjdsallstar
edited December 2013 in The Poker Clinic
Ok this hand is from the 2k £11 BH. I am wondering is it bad to gamble here?

I have a 12 bb stack but the blind warning has just popped up saying they're going to 300/600 next hand so effectively I have 7/8 bb stack, I have taken 3 heads already so made my buy in back and a little profit already and I'm sitting about 40th out of 48 with top 30 paid.

On the villain - don't really know much about him (just moved table for 2/3 orbits). I think this is the 2nd time the villain has shoved preflop.

My thinking - By calling I'm only in really bad shape against AA,KK,QQ,AK,AQ and I was happy getting it in against AX to try and chip up. I know there's lots of hands in his range here but even if the hand was played face up I probably still would have called.

Right tactics?

The guy got a little abusive, which doesn't bother me at all, but it's kept me questioning it in my head. I still like the play but just want confirmation/thoughts from better MTT players.

Cheers
JD
PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
jdsallstar Small blind  200.00 200.00 4710.00
jordz16 Big blind  400.00 600.00 7929.00
  Your hole cards
  • Q
  • K
     
tm1 Fold     
bluevelv14 Fold     
x All-in  4260.00 4860.00 0.00
tOxIcJoJo Fold     
jdsallstar All-in  4710.00 9570.00 0.00
jordz16 Fold     
jdsallstar Unmatched bet  650.00 8920.00 650.00
jdsallstar Show
  • Q
  • K
   
x Show
  • 9
  • A
   
Flop
   
  • 3
  • Q
  • J
     
Turn
   
  • A
     
River
   
  • 6
     
jdsallstar Win Flush to the King 8920.00  9570.00
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Comments

  • F_IvanovicF_Ivanovic
    edited December 2013
    Yes. We need 45% equity to make the call and we probably only have 40% vs a reasonable range. (55+, Ax, KQ) Villain needs to be shoving all of his broadways and some worse Kx, Qx hands for this to be an easy call. Much better to be shoving with KQ than calling it off with it.
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  • Lambert180Lambert180
    edited December 2013
    Definitely just letting it go here. You can't overestimate how MEGA important it is with a stack size like this that you are the first to put your chips into the pot.

    Even when blinds go up, you can still get folds preflop in the right spots, and can also wait for a better spot... even jamming stuff like A2o around the BTN would be better imo because this short we'll probably get snapped off by like K5+, Q8+, J8+ etc, lots of hands we're ahead of.
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  • 77Chris9177Chris91
    edited December 2013
    Really close one... Next hand your also bb so you could be down to 6/7bb. Think the range stated above is a little on the tighter side also, considering it's a cut off shove from a 10bb stack who also knows the blinds are going up. Would probably add any PP + KJ, QJ maybe J10s. You also have him covered so would win the bounty.

    Think either shoving or folding are fine but leaning slightly towards a shove.
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  • DoubleAAADoubleAAA
    edited December 2013
    Against a range of 22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,A5o+,KJo+,QJo which is 22.5% of hands, then you're 44% and as Ivanovic said, you need 45%.  The correct play would be to fold but if you're wanting to gamble and go for the double up + Head, then you're in good shape to gamble.

    As Lambert already mentioned, it's always better to be the one shoving rather than the one calling.  Just pick your spots wisely, and remember, next hand you have the button and the potential to steal 900 chips as the blinds are going up.  That's a 20% increase on your stack.
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  • BigHawk89BigHawk89
    edited December 2013
    Don't mind the call specially when your flipping most of the time, and KQ always wins vs Ax anyway.

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  • BigHawk89BigHawk89
    edited December 2013
    Im not sure I agree with some of the comments that say you still have a lot of fold equity with 6-7bb. Most of the players will just call you with a pretty wide range to get the bounty Ive found.
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  • DoubleAAADoubleAAA
    edited December 2013
    In Response to Re: wrong to gamble?:
    Don't mind the call specially when your flipping most of the time, and KQ always wins vs Ax anyway.
    Posted by BigHawk89
    Really?  I'll have to try that!
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  • CraigSG1CraigSG1
    edited December 2013
    If its been a fairly active table then I'm calling I think. We need to try and double up at some point and I dint think its the worst call in the world if you realize that you are gambling and not expecting to have the best hand. 

    If its been a solidish table then we can fold here and shove first with any hand rather than call off. 
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  • bbMikebbMike
    edited December 2013
    Those equity calcs ignore the fact that if you win the hand you also take some cash, and also then have cash equity against other shorter stacks. It is a gamble but not a super-spewy one with only one person left to act.

    PS - the fact that you've taken 3 heads and covered your buy-in should not be featuring in your decision whether to make the call.
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