Should I have raised the flop turn for protection

ballboy

hindsight probably yes, but thought best to see the opinion of a few others.

To put into context - this was the £1000gtd BH (£5.50 entry) tournament. I started the hand I think 8th in chips out of about 70 left, but such is life I have I think 3 bigger stacks on my table. Usually when I have won a massive pot my table has broken up and I have gone against smaller stacks which is much more ideal for me.

I decided not to open preflop. I usually would, but given I had raise folded the last two hands I opened I decided to try and take a cheap flop on the button with a hand that can play well post flop. This probably was a mistake on my part. Bar reads from previous hand, game flow etc I shouldn't let what happened before affect my decisions too much.

Look at the hand below

y #728195114 (00:19 04/01/2014)PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalanceSLYNCHSmall blind 150.00150.0017750.00xBig blind 300.00450.0014365.00 Your hole cardsKQ   wizkhalifaFold    xVILLAxFold    mum26Call 300.00750.007360.00ballboyCall 300.001050.0017120.00SLYNCHFold    xRaise 600.001650.0013765.00mum26Call 600.002250.006760.00ballboyCall 600.002850.0016520.00Flop  7K4   xBet 1425.004275.0012340.00mum26Fold    ballboyCall 1425.005700.0015095.00Turn  7   xBet 1200.006900.0011140.00ballboyCall 1200.008100.0013895.00River  J   xAll-in 11140.0019240.000.00ballboyCall 11140.0030380.002755.00xShowJJ   ballboyShowKQ   xWinFull House, Jacks and 7s30380.00 30380.0My thoughts on the flop are that there is about 85% chance I am winning more or less. I am losing to not many hands AK, AA etc or a fortunate set on the flop, but there isn't much there to fear.

On the turn I think I am certainly winning still, with his likely hands not being with a King in, but 10s, JJs QQs. Do I call the turn keeping these hands I am beating in and allow these hands to bet again on the river possibly (with them possibly firing again in case I have two diamonds or a weak hand that can't take the pressure) or do I put a raise in here?. Its a weird hand in a vacuum because I don't think if I raised the flop or the turn many hands I beat will call, but then there aren't many hands that will show up which beat me. I think therefore I am calling to extract more more value from my hand.

On the river, I feel really gutted I didn't press the fold button. He bet 11k into 8k and I pretty quickly paid it off. Really really disgusting. I didn't use my 15 seconds to map out how he had shafted me and make a good fold.

Can I get some thoughts and possibly a shoulder to cry on (lol). I presume a lot of players would have folded there. At this point there wasn't really any hands I was beating. The problem which possibly led to me calling was that there was two diamonds on the flop and I made my hand look weak and he was perhaps more likely to have fired a third barrel whatever came out.

I feel that at poker you learn more by betting than calling and of two hands I played badly tonight, both were as a result of not putting bets in on the turn which would have defined the oppositions hand

hhyftrftdr

Defo raising the button. Take control of what is a very good hand in position. Probably making it about 850/900 to put some pressure on the shortish limper. But you acknowledge this so fair play

As played, think it's all ok bar the river. That turn bet from villain does look weak, but raising is only gonna fold out pretty much all the hands in his range that we beat. Yes, we could raise and he bins his Jacks, but how often do they hit their 2 outer? We have position, and a strong but potentially marginal holding. Don't think we need to bloat this pot here and now. 

By the river, and given the action, we only really beat some weird overbet shove from QQ/maybe 1010 or some total airball. Still behind to AK, AA, JJ and even KJ has outdrawn us on that river.

The very last point you make is potentially flawed logic. Say for example he has QQ here, and you held the two diamonds for the flush draw. When he ships his Queens on the river, he's only ever really getting called by trips, a house or the K. If villain thinks you are on the draw, he is better off checking the river to you to give you the chance to steal it. By shoving QQ, he takes away the opportunity for you to take a stab, and pretty much is only ever getting called when beat.

hhyftrftdr

Ok, now you've changed the last bit and made me look a bit stupid But my sentiments remain the same. 

Run well sir.

ballboy

In Response to Re: Should I have raised the flop turn for protection:

Defo raising the button. Take control of what is a very good hand in position. Probably making it about 850/900 to put some pressure on the shortish limper. But you acknowledge this so fair play As played, think it's all ok bar the river. That turn bet from villain does look weak, but raising is only gonna fold out pretty much all the hands in his range that we beat. Yes, we could raise and he bins his Jacks, but how often do they hit their 2 outer? We have position, and a strong but potentially marginal holding. Don't think we need to bloat this pot here and now.  By the river, and given the action, we only really beat some weird overbet shove from QQ/maybe 1010 or some total airball. Still behind to AK, AA, JJ and even KJ has outdrawn us on that river. The very last point you make is potentially flawed logic. Say for example he has QQ here, and you held the two diamonds for the flush draw. When he ships his Queens on the river, he's only ever really getting called by trips, a house or the K. If villain thinks you are on the draw, he is better off checking the river to you to give you the chance to steal it. By shoving QQ, he takes away the opportunity for you to take a stab, and pretty much is only ever getting called when beat.
Posted by hhyftrftdr

Cheers mate - yeah think the last bit probably was a bit flawed logic really (that's why I changed what I put). If he has showdown value he wouldn't do this, but if say he had AQ for example and he puts me on 2 diamonds that haven't connected, he knows he can't/shouldn't check call here, so he may bet an amount to represent strength and try to stop me bluffing the river with two diamonds or a missed draw, but allow himself the ability to fold if I was to make a raise. I don't think he would push AQ, A-10 or any of the under pairs here really.

Looking at it. I should have folded and kept a reasonably healthy above average stack. I had played well up to this point, but this killer blow ended a lot of good work. Always another one though.

hhyftrftdr

Sigh, you've since added this as well!.....''My thoughts on the flop are that there is about 85% chance I am winning more or less. I am losing to not many hands AK, AA etc or a fortunate set on the flop, but there isn't much there to fear.''

This is where any reads or history come into their own. Lets use this example above. This villain is pretty tight, not shown or been caught bluffing, always seems to have it as is generally a pretty tight player. So when they put in a small iso raise out of position, we can probably narrow their range right down. Possibly as far down to AA, KK, AKs and QQ. Obviously, we are comfortably behind to 3 of those 4 hands. So whilst we might think we have flopped pretty well, we should still proceed with caution, potentially letting go on later streets if this type of villain keeps firing and we don't improve.

Not saying this is the case in this hand, but something worth considering in future pokers. 

And I still think calling the turn is fine. When the river bricks off, like it will plenty of times, we can get the likes of JJ/1010/QQ to potentially pay us off by betting the river.

LnarinOO

dont mind raising or calling here pre seeing as you have raise folded the 2 last hands calling may be better vs an aggro table...

wish you didnt post results but as soon  as i see the river jam i thought JJ. sometimes it may be best to leave out the results so you dont get any biased comments and we can decide whats best...

flops fine but turn is where i would change it up.. i agree we want to keep in worst hands etc which may fold.. but we're letting villain dictate the action, turning our hand face up and not taking control of the hand.. generally when you see 1/2 pot followed by a tiny 1/4 pot bet, its from someone who jus dfoesnt know what to do with their hand- quite often after the raise pre its goin to be exactly a hand like 10's or JJ's and they dont want to jus check but they also dont want to carry on for full value once being called otf.. so they bet a pointless amount

id also say that in general, this type of player would make a similar small bet otr when its comes a brick.. id be raisin the turn here 100% and hope they cant pass their pair, if i get bet/3bet or bet into otr then i just re-evaluate the situ and make a decicion.. but think we should be goin for more value and taking control of the hand ott

and you would be raising for value if you did - your at a point where your way ahead/ way behind.. it jus so happens he binked a 2 outer 

WHOAMI196

i would not raise the flop for protection but for value, and if i could see value in raising i would r/r to get it in and not folding, as folding after a rr would be bad

not raising the turn is your mistake as flatting the flop is fine as we can allow villain to continue his bluffs but since his bet is so small i would be inclined to think of it as a stopper bet, so a draw or the hand he has above, since its small we are unlikely going to get further value from bluffs on the river, so raising the turn looking to get it in for max value from draws and expect to win a lot of the time (player reads help but his line shows he is an inexperienced fishy player)

Ice_Tiger

I would reraise on the turn.

He clearly has something as he raised pre. His bet on the flop tell you little but you are behind to AA, AK & KK which are all possible. However, his bet on the turn suggests AQ, JJ and TT as far more likely. I think it should be a bet for value here because some players will call in the hope of a miracle river card.

When the J comes on the river, one of the three most likely hands got there so it is a sigh fold for me, unless I know that this player is capable of a massive river bluff. Stack sizes and tournament position suggest that this would be a stupid move so it looks more like a value shove.

I would also say that his pre flop raise is nowhere near big enough with two limpers, which suggests to me that he is the kind of player that would make the decisions he did on the turn & river with JJ.