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Interesting hand from Pub tournament last night for discussion/analysis
There is two tables of 5 players left at this point. Blinds are 300/600. I have 22k. The villain in this hand has around 30k
I have K9 spades on the button and raise to 1500 (no limpers before) and he calls from SB
Flop comes Q-8-2 (with two hearts) - About as bad as it can be for my hand
He checks. I cbet 1500 and he calls.
Question 1) - What sort of ranges are people putting him on here? (flush draws, mid range Queens, second pairs and sets etc). A wide range at the moment are my thoughts
The turn is the 9 of hearts, giving me second pair but completing a flush and a slightly unlikely straight draw. The villain now donk bets 2300 into a pot of around 6000.
Question 2) - He is betting in a way that represents two hearts in a very face up way. Would people ever consider giving people who make these kind of bets credit for a hand as strong as that? Obviously I only have second pair here, but if you had two Kings for example is this just a fold. I would imagine the answer is - PLAYER DEPENDANT. Welcome all thoughts - What do people think is my optimal play?
I evaluate this for a while and make the call
The river is the Ace of diamonds
He bets the river for around 4500 into 11k.
Question 3) - What are your thoughts at this stage regarding ranges of hands he can have? To me it seemed a strange bet because it appeared to me as a card that split his range into more hands that were a long way ahead of me, or weak hands that couldn't win a showdown. Would a hand like QJ turn his hand into a bluff on such a dangerous river card which could make me the best hand with something like AK, A8 or AQ etc.
Question 4) - Factoring in the information from the question above - Do you a) Call the 4500 b) Fold c) Move all in and put maximum pressure on hands that we cannot beat as showdown such as a QJ type hand?
I will let a few people respond and then reveal the outcome.
Comments
I have eluded to information specifically with this hand so as not to sway peoples thoughts.
As for the outcome. Its not that important, but the process which led to my decisions were as I will probably follow that again when I play live poker.
I purposely left out that I had reads on this player because I didn't feel people would give me the answers I want. Its not really a question of was my play correct here? but is my logic on each street correct.
The villain here is a fairly weak player (getting the fundamentals wrong in a lot of tournaments and not getting many results over a relatively big sample) who in this hand by the river appeared nervous with his adams apple pulsing really quickly. I noticed in other hands when he had a top pair/two pair type hands he seemed much calmer. I think I may have folded the turn if he showed this calmness. Even still I had to determine whether he was excited or nervous should he be bluffing, which he likes to do and then show how clever he is as soon as his opponents cards are in the muck.
Would anyone be convinced that his play on the turn represented a completed flush? Just leading straight at the pot. I think stronger players may reraise on the flop particularly out of position. He might check raise the turn to try and get money in or call again and donk strongly on the river.
The way he played it felt like he wasn't giving me credit for any hands. My range is very wide on the button so why would he try and chase me away if he had the nuts on this turn card. Again not sure. I felt like the more likely hands with Qx or 8x hands trying to find out where they are.
By the river I don't think anyone with just a Queen would bet as they don't have a clue what to do if I move all in on a card that hit the range I am representing. He cannot call if I go all in with a Queen, but he could make a sigh call if he checks and I bet (not that I would with my hand). There is also 3 hearts so I feel a river bet consists more of two pairs such as A8/AQ (or set of 2s perhaps) and obviously flushes or hands that cannot win a showdown.
I used the Ace as a reason for calling rather than folding as it was a bad card for him to keep betting on. He showed an 8 for 4th pair on the river and my reads on the player were correct.
Obviously versus different players this is a fold and I would not call in this situation against every player, but I felt this time I did everything right. I didn't want this to appear as a brag post, interested in how people view my perceptions of his play.
What are peoples overall thoughts? Everyone has said fold turn, but what hands am I giving him credit for here? All welcome