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NL10: Bet-Sizing tells. Semi-bluff the turn?
Villain seems to open bigger with bigger hands, so this min-raise makes me think it's unlikely that he has AA, KK, QQ or AK. Thinking that we're looking at a pocket pair or two face cards.
Hence the 3-bet, in position. It's very unlikely in my mind that I'll be 4-bet, but it's an easy lay-down if that happens. We pick up so much money post-flop when he check-folds.
On the flop, his donk-bet means he's hit but its size says he's still not massive. Happy with the raise here, I assume? We've got plenty of equity... Just a matter of raise-sizing.
He comes out with the same tiny donk-bet on the turn. We think he's marginal... but unsure at this stage whether he can lay down the top of his "marginal" range. SPR says I can shove here. The price I'm being offered says I can profitably flat-call to see the river.
Are we shoving or flatting the turn?
Obviously input is welcome on all streets, including sizings.
| Jo | Small blind | £0.05 | £0.05 | £8.36 | |
| Hannah | Big blind | £0.10 | £0.15 | £12.27 | |
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| Tina | Fold | ||||
| Rachel | Raise | £0.20 | £0.35 | £8.83 | |
| BorinLoner | Raise | £0.80 | £1.15 | £13.27 | |
| Jo | Fold | ||||
| Hannah | Fold | ||||
| Rachel | Call | £0.60 | £1.75 | £8.23 | |
| Flop | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |||||
| Rachel | Bet | £0.60 | £2.35 | £7.63 | |
| BorinLoner | Raise | £1.80 | £4.15 | £11.47 | |
| Rachel | Call | £1.20 | £5.35 | £6.43 | |
| Turn | |||||
| |||||
| Rachel | Bet | £0.60 | £5.95 | £5.83 | |
| BorinLoner | All-in | £11.47 | £17.42 | £0.00 | |
Comments
As for the turn decision I really hate calling in these spots. When we have 3-bet pre and 3-bet the flop, calling this size bet on the turn is the equivalent of typing in chat 'I've not got anything here take it down on the river if you want'.
Jam is definitely the best play imo.
just type in chat "please fold"
donk is weak top pr, good 2nd pr or fd
call turn
Anyway what happened
Also your assuming villian has each holding 33.3% of the time, this simply isn't true.
You don't want them to fold a FD do you, they could have a str draw also.
To answer your question: "...what if he has KK and only min bet to keep someone in the pot..."
Well, then he'd have done me up like a kipper, wouldn't he? lol
As it is he turned over KJo, which I think is the top of his range here. I didn't get there.
OP has ruled out sets and AK, were left with KJ, KQ, K10 and maybe a few weak Q's that are calling. Think with the equity we have if called jamming is best.
Calling turn and just folding to another 60p lead on the river or whatever just feels gross.
we have 24% when called with a live ace
haven't done the maffs but we probbaly needing them to fold like half of the time
IDK off hand maybe I'll do some maffs later
edit: done maffs, yeah if vill will fold 50% of the time then shove
intresting thing is if vill doesn't fold FD's/sd's, then hey ho creates an easy shove like all the time
It's not just about his 3-bet-calling range, it's about his small-donk range on flop and turn. This board doesn't "smack" his range for doing that in the sense that he figures to be very strong. As I said, these bets, combined with his min-raise-call pre-flop, indicate a marginal hand.