does my BR make the best action for me to just take a free card

craigcu12

with an A being shown on the flop and having done a check call I am a bit concerned that I might need the K Q or diamond to come on the river. my BR was £20 at the time of this hand. should I just take the free card.

nite_owl55	Small blind		£0.02	£0.02	£5.20
margar1943	Big blind		£0.04	£0.06	£2.16
carmul28	Big blind		£0.04	£0.10	£1.76
	Your hole cards	Q K
craigcu12	Raise		£0.16	£0.26	£3.62
carmul28	Call		£0.12	£0.38	£1.64
NEOPHYTE	Fold
usoges24	Fold
nite_owl55	Fold
margar1943	Call		£0.12	£0.50	£2.04
Flop
		2 Q A
margar1943	Check
craigcu12	Bet		£0.39	£0.89	£3.23
carmul28	Fold
margar1943	Call		£0.39	£1.28	£1.65
Turn
		5
margar1943	Check
craigcu12

mugsy78

In Response to does my BR make the best action for me to just take a free card:

with an A being shown on the flop and having done a check call I am a bit concerned that I might need the K Q or diamond to come on the river. my BR was £20 at the time of this hand. should I just take the free card. nite_owl55 Small blind   £0.02 £0.02 £5.20 margar1943 Big blind   £0.04 £0.06 £2.16 carmul28 Big blind   £0.04 £0.10 £1.76   Your hole cards Q K       craigcu12 Raise   £0.16 £0.26 £3.62 carmul28 Call   £0.12 £0.38 £1.64 NEOPHYTE Fold         usoges24 Fold         nite_owl55 Fold         margar1943 Call   £0.12 £0.50 £2.04 Flop     2 Q A       margar1943 Check         craigcu12 Bet   £0.39 £0.89 £3.23 carmul28 Fold         margar1943 Call   £0.39 £1.28 £1.65 Turn     5       margar1943 Check         craigcu12
Posted by craigcu12

When your BR has an affect on the way you play hands than you're in trouble.... You have decent equity in the hand any K,Q,T or D so we have 32% vs Ax(1 pair) which is pretty much the top of villains range as you prob get c/raised with anything more, and you're a huge fav vs the bottom of his range which consists of anything without an A. Pot is 1.28 and effective stacks are 1.65 so its all in for me, so at worst you're pretty much break even in the event they call with an A.

seppe

In Response to Re: does my BR make the best action for me to just take a free card:

In Response to does my BR make the best action for me to just take a free card : When your BR has an affect on the way you play hands than you're in trouble.... You have decent equity in the hand any K,Q,T or D so we have 32% vs Ax(1 pair) which is pretty much the top of villains range as you prob get c/raised with anything more, and you're a huge fav vs the bottom of his range which consists of anything without an A. Pot is 1.28 and effective stacks are 1.65 so its all in for me, so at worst you're pretty much break even in the event they call with an A.
Posted by mugsy78

Very good point, also not betting is bad for the times you do hit the diamond, you missing out on loads of value

77Chris91

Check Turn - You have decent showdown value here no need to be semi-bluffing.

mugsy78

In Response to Re: does my BR make the best action for me to just take a free card:

Check Turn - You have decent showdown value here no need to be semi-bluffing.
Posted by 77Chris91

It's not showdown value we should be thinking about, also showdown value only applies on the river. It's our EV ( expected value) we need to be thinking about. Firstly to calculate what our EV is in the hand if we shove we ( assuming we get called 100%)first must know what our equity is.

 Our equity is 32%. So assuming villain calls our all in on the turn 100% of the time we can work it out. We have 32% of the 2.93 (1.28+1.65)pot so 2.93x0.32=93p. We lose 68% of our bet so 1.65x0.68=£1.12.

So our EV calulation is EV-win-lose-93p-£1.12.

So our EV is -19p. So we lose 19p in the long term assuming villain has us beat 100% of the time, but viallain is never infront 100% of the time here. Some of his range will be draws and Qx type hands. So we only need to be infront approx 13% of the time for it to be +EV. So for me it's a no brain shove. We also have a tiny bit of fold equity although not very much given effective stack sizes to pot ratio.

Checking back the turn, and we brick and villain bets river it's a meh situation, and if villain checks  the river now we have "showdown value" and can't really bet "big" as we now fold out all mis draws and only get called by an A, so we mis value by not shoving the turn.

mugsy78

Also just as a foot note the more equity you have in a hand on the turn the more reason there is to bet. When your equity is low on the turn ie gut shot or 1 over card the more reason there is to check behind. However when you figure you have 0% equity in a hand you may be inclined to bet as its the only way to win the pot, but you have to use good judgement on figuring whether to pure bluff with 0% equity by knowing your opponant and how the hand has played to that point.

jakally

The piece of his range we are interested in is draws and worse 1 pair hands. (Assuming we can never get him to fold a better one pair hand which is a reasonable assumption.

We can get value from these hands by either betting now and getting him to call, or checking now and him bluffing the river.

If he calls a lot then bet now, but probably small - similar to flop size.

If he likes a bluff check now & let him stab the river.