Is variance just a made up term

ShaunyT

with regards to poker that is. i mean whats the definition of variance? the times when you should win a hand but dont? it got me thinking this week when ive had 3 all in situations with nearly exactly the same cards. mine been the dominating ace and the villian hitting his under card. now im not whinging  here (honest lol)  but if you say oh thats just variance you want that situation i agree, however..... theoretically i could lose that situation the next 3/4/5 times it happens. unlikely but possible. the cards have no memory, i know the maths is in my favour but that doesnt guarantee anything. JUst to add to that point once you are in a situation where you have been the victim of a bad beat or suckout a few times on the trott then you have to defy variance to balence the equation. Making it a bit of a paradox really.  do you think i have a valid point? or should i just wait for the men in white coats to take me away ha ha!

igimc

Its a word "poker players" use to kid themselves on that there's

more skill involved than there actually is.

Variance = Luck

Slipwater

Theoretically, because 'the cards have no memory' you could lose every race situation you ever play, and when we say 'things will even out in the long run', we - as poker players - somehow equate this abstract amount of time (ie, your lifetime) to be where and when the scales balance. But this is no better a measure of variance than any other arbitrary frame of reference.

DOHHHHHHH

In Response to Re: Is variance just a made up term:

Its a word "poker players" use to kid themselves on that there's more skill involved than there actually is. Variance = Luck
Posted by igimc

+1

Spose all terms are 'made up' at some point though.

So yes, and no.

PokerNoon

In a lot of casinos there is a digital board showing the last 20 or so outcomes on the roulette wheel. Very often I see 8 or 9 of one single colour (ie red or black) in a row. 

This is variance. Over 1 million spins, the distribution will be pretty much exactly 50/50 red and black (if we forget about the green zero). But over 100 spins it might be 70/30 or worse in favour of one outcome.

I lose count of the number of threads I see on here that say 'I've lost the last 4 times I've got it in with AK vs 99! Sky Poker is fixed!'

In reality that's just like seeing 4 reds in a row on the roulette wheel, something that happens all the time. It will balance out eventually if you play for long enough - but for some unlucky folks it will require more time than their bankroll will allow.

Slipwater

In Response to Re: Is variance just a made up term:

In a lot of casinos there is a digital board showing the last 20 or so outcomes on the roulette wheel. Very often I see 8 or 9 of one single colour (ie red or black) in a row.  This is variance. Over 1 million spins, the distribution will be pretty much exactly 50/50 red and black (if we forget about the green zero). But over 100 spins it might be 70/30 or worse in favour of one outcome. I lose count of the number of threads I see on here that say 'I've lost the last 4 times I've got it in with AK vs 99! Sky Poker is fixed!' In reality that's just like seeing 4 reds in a row on the roulette wheel, something that happens all the time. It will balance out eventually if you play for long enough - but for some unlucky folks it will require more time than their bankroll will allow.
Posted by PokerNoon

You see, this right here is the problem I was alluding to.

Why is one million spins the correct amount to balance variance, whereas one hundred spins is not? There is no definite number where this happens.

ShaunyT

In Response to Re: Is variance just a made up term:

Its a word "poker players" use to kid themselves on that there's more skill involved than there actually is. Variance = Luck
Posted by igimc

ha ha. i like that. i seem to run really badly online. much worse than live. if i cash ft or win a tourney i generally have to survive all sorts of ""variance". i do think they're are skills to poker so you can avoid or minimise variance situations. i will be starting a diary soon and hopefully analyse my play more to see if i'm genuinely unlucky or there are things wrong in my game that i dont see. thanks for the responses, you're saying what i was kinda thinking.

PokerNoon

In Response to Re: Is variance just a made up term:

In Response to Re: Is variance just a made up term : You see, this right here is the problem I was alluding to. Why is one million spins the correct amount to balance variance, whereas one hundred spins is not? There is no definite number where this happens.
Posted by Slipwater

You're right - I've just checked my calculations and it's actually a million and four spins. Good spot there slippy.

peter27

Think about it this way:

If you flip a coin, how many possible outcomes are there? Two, right? Wrong.

Heads - The coin lands heads side up.
Tails - The coin lands tails side up.
Side - The coin lands on its side (very unlikely, but possible depending on the friction of the impact surface).
Orbit - The coin goes into orbit (technically strength is infinite, so you can flip it so hard that it goes into orbit).

That's four, not two.

This has no relevance to the topic, I just wanted to say it.

In conclusion, variance is a made up term just like all other terms in the World. It means luck.

YOYOY

In Response to Re: Is variance just a made up term:

Think about it this way: If you flip a coin, how many possible outcomes are there? Two, right? Wrong. Heads - The coin lands heads side up. Tails - The coin lands tails side up. Side - The coin lands on its side (very unlikely, but possible depending on the friction of the impact surface). Orbit - The coin goes into orbit (technically strength is infinite, so you can flip it so hard that it goes into orbit). That's four, not two. This has no relevance to the topic, I just wanted to say it. In conclusion, variance is a made up term just like all other terms in the World. It means luck.
Posted by peter27

But what does this mean for Pascals triangle?