Bubble choice that made me think

KAM99

Hi,

This hand made me think for quite a while after the hand, as I'm not really a MTT player and mostly play cash. Easy for me to play this hand on the button to this action on cash table, but here I'm still debating if my choice was black or white.

I had no real info on villian that would matter given the short time I'd been at this table. Suffice to say with his raise if I shoved over I was fairly sure he would call me with 2.2:1 pot odds and his stack size. I ranged him at around 20%, which would likely mean I was about 40% equity by my thinking. Then take into account I've only got 10bb and also it is on the bubble. I don't really care about the bubble as aim for the big cash or it's kind of pointless.

So, shove or fold?

No-Limit Hold'em, 1 Tournament, 150/300 Blinds 25 Ante (7 handed) 

Hero (Button) (t3,110)
SB (t1,180)
BB (t11,419)
UTG (t14,457)
MP1 (t4,307)
MP2 (t11,803)
CO (t32,070)

Hero's M: 4.98

Preflop: Hero is Button with Ad, 10s
2 folds, MP2 raises to t600, 1 fold, Hero??

 

Phantom66

Probably fold, especially readless.

If you can be fairly sure your villain is open stealing a fair % of times, then you can reshove here.

SJspanky1

It's a close one. I'm all for shoving -15BB stacks in MTT's but with a giant stack and 2 shorties behind him you'd have to assume Villain has a half decent hand to open here.

Meh, think I fold in this instance but I shove if I'm suited. It's that marginal IMHO.

Know we've said we aren't bothered bout the min cash but factor in ICM and its a definite fold.

KAM99

Thanks for the answers. I actually shoved, though thought about it for a bit before I did. He did call and turned over KJ. So I was ahead but lost the flip when he hit a jack. Not that the results matter at all to the question.

Didn't really care about the tournament (entered it for another reason as it happens) and so wasn't taht bothered if I went out. All that said the situation just left me with the question because it was such a fine choice based on all the other relevant things that I thought I'd bring it up.

BigBluster

Hold on! Am I missing something? You've got AT and 10BBs facing a min raise?

Unless I have completely misread the situation, why is there any debate at all? This is an instant, trivial shove. No qualms, no debate.

KAM99

In Response to Re: Bubble choice that made me think:

Hold on! Am I missing something? You've got AT and 10BBs facing a min raise? Unless I have completely misread the situation, why is there any debate at all? This is an instant, trivial shove. No qualms, no debate.
Posted by BigBluster

And you base that on what? The fact I have just over 10bb? Sure first in it is an instant shove for certain, but not so clear cut with the situation as it was for the reasons I stated in the first post. And a min-raise or 2.5 is pretty standard by this point in most MTT's.

As said, not rubbishing the advice, as I did shove, but I don't think it is a clear cut shove just because of my stack size.

BorinLoner

If we're thinking the villain is never folding, then obviously we need our AT to be the best hand a fair proportion of the time. Given that the villain is allowed to look at our and the small blind's stacks before acting, we have to assume that he realises that there's a good chance he will be going to showdown, so his hand should be fairly decent.

I think it's a fold. We can't be far ahead very often and will frequently be in trouble against his range. Our 10BB stack gives us significant fold equity if we can be first into the pot in future and we gain 15% (plus antes) to our stack every time we successfully steal the blinds. That fold equity is going to be more valuable than taking a possibly marginally +cEV spot here, even if we give the villain a fairly wide opening range.


I think AT is probably right on the margin, though. If this was BTN vs blinds or if we had AJ we get it in but the villain's position and the stacks at the table should strengthen his range too much.