99 in 3bet pot

F_Ivanovic

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
72dd	Small blind		£0.25	£0.25	£156.85
Villain	Big blind		£0.50	£0.75	£123.09
	Your hole cards	9 9
ALLY23	Fold
F_Ivanovic	Raise		£1.00	£1.75	£180.50
72dd	Fold
Villain	Raise		£3.00	£4.75	£120.09
F_Ivanovic	Call		£2.50	£7.25	£178.00
Flop
		3 Q 8
Villain	Bet		£4.00	£11.25	£116.09
F_Ivanovic	Call		£4.00	£15.25	£174.00
Turn
		10
Villain	Bet		£10.40	£25.65	£105.69
F_Ivanovic	Call		£10.40	£36.05	£163.60
River
		2
Villain	Bet		£23.00	£59.05	£82.69
F_Ivanovic	?

OK, so notes on villain: Is a reg that's capable of 3-barreling as a bluff as well as thinly for value. Earlier in the session he 3 barreled in a SRP with JT on a 85493 runout and vilain called him with A5 (villains range seemed capped) Other than that tho he hasn't got out of line at all, saw him flat with KK and then back-raise 4bet, first time he's 3-bet me on this table so seems to be playing TAG today even tho he can often play LAG.

BorinLoner

Are you really the button in this hand? The bold bits suggest otherwise.

Anyway...


The JT hand doesn't tell us too much about his 3-bet range vs us, nor does his flat-4-bet with KK without knowing position and dynamics against that particular villain.

So we're fairly readless on the villain's 3-bet range against us BTN v BB. In that case, I don't mind flatting the 3-bet or calling the flop bet. When he barrels the turn, though, I think we're just stationing him on a bad board for us. We think he's playing fairly tight, but without having reads on that 3-bet range we should assume it's fairly tight anyway. That range has really strong equity against us on this turn, mostly crushing us, and if he happens to have, say AhKh, he still has that good equity and can put us in bad spots on the river.

When we flat the dry flop we're putting him in a tough spot with most of the hands we beat on the turn. He still bets. If he's barrelling 78o or whatever, we'll have better spots to catch him out later and find out that he's up to that. As of now, we should probably just give this up rather than hero calling three streets.

KAM99

I'm a bit of a believer in that if you thought your hand was good on the turn and nothing comes on the river that makes your hand worse you should call the river as well.

This of course is not a 100% rule, but it makes sense too. In this case however I more than likely folding the turn. Just because villian has a 3-street barrel in his locker doesn't mean he is, and if he does that more than 5% of the time I'd be surprised. If the guy is generally aggresive then I'd rather pick him off elsewhere.

Just my thoughts, that if you got this far as played you should call, but I'd have given it up on the turn. Think you'll be beat with the river call but...

WHOAMI196

so deep and min raising on the btn? personally i do not adjust my 3 bet sizing to min raises, but a lot do like above you just wont get the value when ur sat eff stacks 200bb+, 

on a bluffing perspective, naturally the riv is a bad card to barrel on first glance obs as its a brick, he could continue with ak, but its a small part of his range... although if i had aa,kk AQ id feel pretty good about the river card, and probably villain does too..

if i was bluffing i would expect a q to always call, i would be thinking of getting you off the type of hand you have, a floaty 10j, and 8x hand etc, thinking if you had j9, two pair you would have raised the turn. Although a bad riv to bluff as we are not repping very wide it is a decent spot imo, as i would play the top of my range this way as its pretty decent sizing, except the 3 bet sizing lol

Fold river as played, you can think about getting to SD OTT on the basis he checks riv,  and turning your hand into a bluff on the turn is not out of the question...

77Chris91

Fold turn. Borin's post is pretty much spot on.

Don't like turning our hand into a bluff on this river. Doubt KQ+ is folding enough for it to be profitable.

Simmy4k

river sizing looks a little odd imo.

looks like a thin value bet. But what hands can he have going for thin value here?

Dont think he'd do it with Ts as ur range is so weighted towards Qs. So... what QJ? is that it? And he calls more than 3bs with that pre.

If he had an overpair or AQ i think he would make the bet like 28 or summit on river and go for more value.

I'd call river, looks like a triple barrel.

*I think turn is marginal and based on your impression on him at this stage. Note that we have close to the bottom of our range on the turn so no worries with just folding.

F_Ivanovic

You got me Borin :P I was actually the BB and had AKs. I agree that turn call is the really bad part of the hand. River call is probably fine though.