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Fold?

gazza127gazza127
edited February 2014 in The Poker Clinic



x Small blind £0.25 £0.25 £145.45
SMANIK Big blind £0.50 £0.75 £25.36
  Your hole cards
A
A
     
goose27909 Fold
DodgingB Fold
gazza127 Raise £1.50 £2.25 £87.53
x Call £1.25 £3.50 £144.20
SMANIK Fold
Flop
   
Q
Q
Q
     
x Check
gazza127 Bet £2.00 £5.50 £85.53
x Call £2.00 £7.50 £142.20
Turn
   
7
     
x Check
gazza127 Bet £5.50 £13.00 £80.03
x Raise £11.00 £24.00 £131.20
gazza127

I should fold right?

He's a reg that doesnt seem to get out of line too much.  Although I suppose he can think hes getting value from other PPs like 1010-88 or even a 7 he's just hit.

Meh.  Fold or puke call down?

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Comments

  • SlipwaterSlipwater
    edited February 2014
    Is he really raising the turn with a queen? Wouldn't it be better to let you barrel the river then raise?
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  • F_IvanovicF_Ivanovic
    edited February 2014
    In Response to Re: Fold?:
    Is he really raising the turn with a queen? Wouldn't it be better to let you barrel the river then raise?
    Posted by Slipwater
    No.... we have the nuts and there's still plenty of money left behind. Raising to build a pot is mandatory...

    Folding turn isn't an option imo. just call and see what he does OTR. 
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  • gazza127gazza127
    edited February 2014
    Obv I called turn.

    Then river brings in a made FH anyway.

    x Small blind £0.25 £0.25 £145.45
    SMANIK Big blind £0.50 £0.75 £25.36
      Your hole cards
    A
    A
         
    goose27909 Fold
    DodgingB Fold
    gazza127 Raise £1.50 £2.25 £87.53
    x Call £1.25 £3.50 £144.20
    SMANIK Fold
    Flop
       
    Q
    Q
    Q
         
    x Check
    gazza127 Bet £2.00 £5.50 £85.53
    x Call £2.00 £7.50 £142.20
    Turn
       
    7
         
    x Check
    gazza127 Bet £5.50 £13.00 £80.03
    X Raise £11.00 £24.00 £131.20
    gazza127 Call £5.50 £29.50 £74.53
    River
       
    7
         
    x Bet £22.13 £51.63 £109.07
    gazza127


    Would this be too much of a nit fold?
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  • SlipwaterSlipwater
    edited February 2014
    Shouldn't we really decide now if he has a queen or not? If we call the turn, we're effectively saying "I don't believe you have a queen". If he bets the river, do you suddenly believe he does have it?
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  • BorinLonerBorinLoner
    edited February 2014
    In Response to Re: Fold?:
    Shouldn't we really decide now if he has a queen or not? If we call the turn, we're effectively saying "I don't believe you have a queen". If he bets the river, do you suddenly believe he does have it?
    Posted by Slipwater
    It's still a question of the villain's range. To fold we'd need the Queen to be more likely than all the other possibilities in his range, combined.

    We can call turn and see what he does on the river. If he shoves river, given his description, we can probably fold quite easily. He's made his range obvious and he's giving us terrible pot odds.

    If he bets smaller, we can still believe he may be betting JJ or worse pairs for value against our lower pairs.

    That's all obviously dependent on villain, dynamics, etc. Our image is probably that we can call down fairly light, so does villain exploit that? Gazza seems to think not. Still, we need to be pretty darn sure that this is a Q far more often than not to be able to fold.
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  • 77Chris9177Chris91
    edited February 2014
    Tis a puke spot vs a reg

    Btn v blind though don't think we can ever fold.
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  • WHOAMI196WHOAMI196
    edited February 2014
    lol whats the fuss on this hand, im considering jamming river, never folding, i mean if you call you lose you the minimum with top of ur range how is that bad?  ok he may have q sometimes he would play other pp the same way im sure.

    EDIT: sorry thought we were on the riv hence my post, im callin turn and riv, how tight is this guy, what can he be rasing for valuen can he ever bluff... if he has worse value hands and bluffs in his range we cant fold imo
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  • F_IvanovicF_Ivanovic
    edited February 2014
    Easy fold OTR cause you posted the hand so the guy must have had a Q ;) j/k i probably snap call in game! If he has a Q at least we lost the least.

    @ Slip: We don't just decide if opponent has a Q ott we decide if we're ahead of his range. Sure, he will have a Q some of the time but he might also be bluffing thinking gazza has mostly air himself anyway. In addition he can definitely have worse value hands as well. Calling turn keeps him honest and forces him to fire an other barrel (if we'd folded turn, we'd have given him a fantastic price on his bluff)

    OTR he's giving up with his bluffs some of the time and he may also not bet 99/TT hands for value anymore. Which means his range is a few OP that decided not to 3b pre (say 2 combos of JJ, 1 combo of KK) - A lot therefore depends on what Qx hands he is calling with pre. If he's calling all AQ, KQ and QJ then we have 41% vs his range (not including any bluffs) and so it's a call. If he could have QT as well we only have 33% and it becomes closer to a fold (too busy to check the odds we need on a call now) - 

    So yeah looks like a call. With KK tho it's probably a fold.
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