Puke spot with trips

The_Don90

So this is in the 11.30 bh yesterday. 

Looking back im not convinced with pre, but would like to largely ignore that for the moment if people don't mind, and i would like to focus on this river decision. 

Opponent has been playing fairly face up, and given that read i am 100% sure he/she is never bluffing in this spot. 

Given that we think they are never bluffing does this become a fold? 

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
The_Don90	Small blind		50.00	50.00	4520.00
	Big blind		100.00	150.00	3975.00
	Your hole cards	7 6
dave1948	Fold
jokev10	Call		100.00	250.00	3975.00
jordz16	Call		100.00	350.00	1640.00
The_Don90	Call		50.00	400.00	4470.00
	Raise		300.00	700.00	3675.00
jokev10	Call		300.00	1000.00	3675.00
jordz16	Fold
The_Don90	Call		300.00	1300.00	4170.00
Flop
		7 A 3
The_Don90	Check
	Check
jokev10	Check
Turn
		7
The_Don90	Bet		550.00	1850.00	3620.00
	Call		550.00	2400.00	3125.00
jokev10	Fold
River
		K
The_Don90	Bet		1200.00	3600.00	2420.00
	Raise		2800.00	6400.00	325.00
The_Don90

jams88

If he is never bluffing and fairly straight forward I presume we are narrowing his range to aa, kk or ak. so its 1600 more to win 8000 so I presume this is a call. But how crippled will you be if you call and lose?  Most people tend to 3bet ak bigger if they are going to 3bet from that position so maybe that's not a 3rd of his range and he nearly always shows up with a house here it becomes a fold imo especially if he is play faceup as you say

BorinLoner

Mostly ignoring that we should probably fold to the pre-flop raise...


AK bets the flop 3-way as does most air on such a dry board. QQ, JJ, TT don't raise the river. Does villain really float turn with air or call with weaker hands, then raise river?

Villain's most likely range seems to be AA and KK. AA because "OMG, I've got the nuts, gotta slow-play!" and KK because "OMG, why does an Ace always hit when I have KK!?"

How many other 7x hands in his range that we can be chopping with? Not many.

So we should be way behind when he raises the river. You say he plays face up and is never bluffing. Well, we should credit AK as the only hand we beat and how often do we think that checks back the flop?

KAM99

Everyone is mentioning AA, KK and AK. Out of those 3 we only beat AK, but given his preflop raise and raise on the river, it is possible that is exactly what he has. Certainly it could be AA, but I doubt that or he seems more likely to raise turn. So for me either KK or AK, and so with pot odds I can see a call wouldn't be horrible. If he has KK fine I guess, but not sure I wanna fold either given he could easy have us on a weaker ace here.

As to the preflop that you didn't want a comment on. Actually the call isn't horrible. Sure it may not be awesome in some eyes given your hand, but you are getting 4:1 pot odds to call 250 into 1000 pot. You can't be worse than 5:1 really preflop and so it's not the worst call in the world. And if memory serves your hand is one of those with the best chances vs AA, even if it's a marginal thing and still like 4:1 against. And the occasional speculation 40bb deep don't suck I think.. at least in my eyes, but I'm not a real MTT player. Cash I'm highly likely to call.

hhyftrftdr

Just trying to piece it all together, it does look like AA or KK (leaning more towards the former). Quite a small raise pre from the BB into 3 limpers suggests the villain wants action. Flops top set on a super dry board, needs to let someone catch up or try and pinch it. Gets the action he wants on the turn after housing up. No need to raise as there is still someone behind to act, and has position on you. Raises the river, leaving 3bb behind. 

KK does kinda make sense too.