Why do regs always run good?

Enut · February 2014

OK the title is deliberately a bit af an attention grabber and I rarely post bad beats but what is you opinion of the call by my op here? We are in the mid/late stages of last nights £30 BH (76 left) and I have a stack where IMO I can only go all in to his raise. Comments on his call, for virtually his tourney life?

I have deleted his name but he is a very experienced and profitable player so I guess he made the right decision? To give a little history I had gone all in previously in a similar position to his SB raise, so maybe he didn't give me credit for a hand but really A2, is that a hand to call off virtually all of your stack?

Flop
xxxxxxx	Small blind		150.00	150.00	9649.00
Enut	Big blind		300.00	450.00	7605.00
	Your hole cards	K A
GELDY	Fold
hammers13	Fold
PUPPASMURF	Fold
Omen69	Fold
xxxxxxx	Raise		750.00	1200.00	8899.00
Enut	All-in		7605.00	8805.00	0.00
xxxxxxx	Call		7005.00	15810.00	1894.00
xxxxxxx	Show	2 A
Enut	Show	K A
		Q 7 2
Turn
		3
River
		A
xxxxxxx	Win	Two Pairs, Aces and 2s	15810.00		17704.00

unknown_username · February 2014

I can understand your frustration, but his thinking might be, "if i have any chance of winning this i need to double up".

On another night he looses.

Enut · February 2014

In Response to Re: Why do regs always run good?:

I can understand your frustration, but his thinking might be, "if i have any chance of winning this i need to double up". On another night he looses.
Posted by tomo_efc

If he folds to my all in he still has somehting like 29 big blinds. He may want to double up (don't we all in tourneys) but in my opinion that's not even down to shoving with anything level let alone call an all in with A2 level. I'm not moaning about his call, after all I got all my chips in with a dominating ace, I just fail to understand why he called. Even if he thought I was 'at it' and trying to push him off a hand what did he put me on to think he should call? K2 or worse? After all he's not far ahead of any random hand.

MsBubble · February 2014

they run good because they no when to get it in with ak and when not to find that spot and you also will run like them its not because there regualrs they just win its because they put the time and effort in to make themselfs better why would you be happy as to getting it all in anyway with that many chips on a k to a 300 bet ???

Enut · February 2014

In Response to Re: Why do regs always run good?:

they run good because they no when to get it in with ak and when not to find that spot and you also will run like them its not because there regualrs they just win its because they put the time and effort in to make themselfs better why would you be happy as to getting it all in anyway with that many chips on a k to a 300 bet ???
Posted by MsBubble

Thanks for your reply, just a few points:-

He didn't get it all in with AK, I had AK. He called my all in with A2.
I didn't get it all in to a 300 bet, I reraised all in with about 7500 chips to his raise of 750. In my view if I am going to go with the hand with that chip stack I may as well go all.
As for the comment about trying to improve, I am not a complete novice, I just didn't understand the rationale for his call, I guess that's why I posted.

Apart from that thanks for your reply.

JPW33 · February 2014

Im no expert but agree not sure why he would risk his stack, but if hes a regular winning player then all sorts of reasons will come out why he is correct, but if you are a new player and did this then you would be a donk or a fish !!

marklar · February 2014

Quite frankly I'm shocked as to how this guy could be a profitable reg, calling an all-in shove for 80% of his stack with a2s is a horrible horrible play. You were just v unlucky (he's only winning in that situation every one-in-four times). Maybe he misclicked? If I was you I'd hunt him down and play with him more : )

Enut · February 2014

Thanks for your posts JPW33 and marklar. The only reason for posting this was that I sat and thought about possible reasons for him making that play and couldn't think of any. It might have been a missclick but I don't think so. Odds were about 75/25 when all the money went in (it's actually 71/24 with about 5% split pot).

Ironically one of the situations I dread when playing poker is actually getting my money in with a dominating hand. It may just be me but I certainly think I lose a lot more than 24%of those hands! Some nights I'm pretty sure I don't even win 50% let alone 70% plus! Maybe I just run bad!

THEROCK573 · February 2014

no 2 ways about it, poor call by the reg, either had a read on you or hes a poor player, ( all winning regs on here arnt good, trust me. )

i think on you're part 25 bigs is a touch on the big side to be 3-bet shoving paticularly when theres no antes in play on sky, but its not terrible i suppose if you feel people call with worse for you're bounty

i know you have probably heard this before but we want these calls all day long in mtts and all regs dont allways get there either, if you can keep getting you're chips in like this you will make a lot of money in the future belive me, gl gl

Enut · February 2014

In Response to Re: Why do regs always run good?:

no 2 ways about it, poor call by the reg, either had a read on you or hes a poor player, ( all winning regs on here arnt good, trust me. ) i think on you're part 25 bigs is a touch on the big side to be 3-bet shoving paticularly when theres no antes in play on sky, but its not terrible i suppose if you feel people call with worse for you're bounty i know you have probably heard this before but we want these calls all day long in mtts and all regs dont allways get there either, if you can keep getting you're chips in like this you will make a lot of money in the future belive me, gl gl
Posted by THEROCK573

Thanks THEROCK. Yes 25 BB was a little big for a 3 bet shove but I didnt want to reraise and then possibly fold a missed flop as that would simply leave me in a worse position (with less than 20 BBs). Add to that the fact that people call very light in a BH and I decided to shove. Yes I agree, give me that match up all day please. I was more bemused about his call, guess relly I should have put this in the tourney strategy forum but I'm not a regular poster and didn't even know the Tourney Strategy forum was there until recently!

Thanks again for you comments.

iFeesh · February 2014

You've kind of answered this yourself.

You said you made the same move in the same situation previously, so maybe he thinks you're just going to shove any 2 in a sb vs bb battle.
Also, shoving around 30bb to a 2.5bb raise looks a little bluffy. If he thinks you're shoving KQ/KJ/KT/K9/QJ/QT, then his A high is good.

You have to remember, blind battles are a bit different. If he made that raise from MP and you shoved, I expect he may fold. But when someone picks up an A in the sb, in an unopened pot, they usually aren't folding.

So, the size of your shove, the positions, and the fact you shoved previously, are the main factors he called.

KAM99 · February 2014

Not sure I like your shove even if you want to see all five cards with AK. His call is pretty dreadful without history to give him some reason to do it. As he is going to be drawing to three outs against any ace or any PP and only ahead of a shove with some random KQ, KJ, QJ type hand that isn't going to shove 3bet that often this deep.

If he is a proffitable regular i'm not sure what he was thinking, but hey I've seen bad calls before, and made them myself. Haven't we all.

Enut · February 2014

Thanks for your posts guys. The general consensus is that his call of my all in is bad. However there seems some debate about my shove with AK suited. I have to say I did deliberate before shoving and if my stack was even a little bigger I probably just 3 bet. However as it stood and if I simply 3 bet him then it is 20% plus of my stack and leaves me with 17+ BBs. Then what do I do when I miss the flop and he leads out (which I see a lot)? I then either get pot committed with Ace high or fold, putting me in a much worse position than I was in before the hand started.

As to his notes on me if he has watched over the last year or so he probably has the note 'often loses when all in with dominating hands' as that seems to be a feature of how I run. Am I the only player that dreads seeing that I am dominating when the cards turn over? I know I seem to lose these situations far more than I would like! Give me a coin flip any day - at least I know it was 50/50 then and easier to deal with the ones I don't win!

KAM99 · February 2014

In Response to Re: Why do regs always run good?:

T Am I the only player that dreads seeing that I am dominating when the cards turn over? I know I seem to lose these situations far more than I would like! Give me a coin flip any day - at least I know it was 50/50 then and easier to deal with the ones I don't win!
Posted by Enut

Yes, you are the only one that dreads it. Also, you don't lose it more than you win with it. Your mind is just playing a trick on you, as you cannot remember enough hands to create a correct statistical model and so you tend to just remember the beats rather than the wins. It is human nature.

Simple fact is that this situation is not much more than a coin flip. They hold 30% equity and so you are going to lose 30% of the time. That means there will be a lot of them. It is also the reason that MTT's can have high variance due to yo needing quite a bit of luck to reach the big money, even if you play them real well.

I used to talk to a lot of people with this mind-set on fulltilt and even went through my pokertracker to give them my stats for various things like this one, or how often you get dealt a certain hand, how often a flush draw completes from flop to river or how often you hit your set.

The results were sooo bang on to statistical probability it was amazing really, even to me. So in short, don't believe your very faulty human memory. You cannot possible remember a big enough sample of cards to get a true picture of statistical probability.

Enut · February 2014

Thanks Kam 99. I agree with everything you say. I wasn't implying that I wasn't winning 70% (roughly) with dominating hands, it is simply a mind set thing. You see the cards go over and that you are dominating BUT that only means 70/30. It's that the word DOMINATING sounds so strong!

I think in future I will think of it that I simply 'had a better ace' etc.