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Horrible spot
| gazza127 | Small blind | £0.50 | £0.50 | £121.70 | |
| dub1 | Big blind | £1.00 | £1.50 | £99.00 | |
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| Kazuko | Fold | ||||
| russia | Fold | ||||
| x | Raise | £3.00 | £4.50 | £116.24 | |
| gazza127 | Raise | £8.50 | £13.00 | £113.20 | |
| dub1 | Fold | ||||
| x | Call | £6.00 | £19.00 | £110.24 | |
| Flop | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |||||
| gazza127 | Bet | £14.00 | £33.00 | £99.20 | |
| x | Call | £14.00 | £47.00 | £96.24 | |
| Turn | |||||
| |||||
| gazza127 | Bet | £29.00 | £76.00 | £70.20 | |
| x | Call | £29.00 | £105.00 | £67.24 | |
| River | |||||
| |||||
| gazza127 | Check | ||||
| x | All-in | £67.24 | £172.24 | £0.00 | |
| gazza127 | Fold | ||||
| x | Muck | ||||
| x | Win | £103.20 | £103.20 | ||
| x | Return | £67.24 | £1.80 | £170.44 | |
Villain is a solid reg. Lets clarify solid - he's not a nit.... but he knows the game very very well.
He knows im a little loose and I can 3bet and barrel away 3 streets with air. He also knows I dont like to fold big hands too often.
He cant have much air on the flop, and definitely has no air on the turn when he calls, so the river cant be a stone cold bluff imo... although im sure he'd be happy to tell me otherwise! I also think he probably checks back hands with showdown OTR, such as bare 10s and Js as he knows hes only getting called by better if he shoves... although I suppose he is quite capable of turning them into a bluff if he does think im capable of folding an overpair, or perhaps he thinks a shove with J10 is getting value from AJ type hands?
One of those spots where he surely cant be bluffing that much?
Am I turning into a nit?
Thoughts please.
Comments
Your ahead of none of the villain's value range (assuming he checks back J10 and AJ).
You block a couple of combos of hands that villain could float flop/turn (AQcc/KQcc) that you would still be ahead of.
Btn v Blinds imo villain is gonna snap check back hands like A10 or whatever. They just have to much showdown value v your range.
In a nutshell, folding is fine lol
Anyway, why aren't we betting the river? We can be given credit for triple-barrelling with air, so why not triple-barrel with a value hand like an overpair on a low-paired board? - Actually asking for your thoughts.
A few dynamic dependent thoughts:
Why would villain call flop and turn with a flush draw if our perceived range is so light? If he knows what he's doing, wouldn't he raise us off our air at some point with equity? If that's the case, doesn't he rep only a house or better on this river with the shove?
If we're given credit for a wide triple-barrelling range, when we check this river what do we rep? Do we always have "marginal" showdown value? Therefore, if villain can never have air, can he be turning a weak showdown hand like Jx or Tx into a bluff, knowing he doesn't beat our range? (We can't be bluff-catching because the most credible draw has hit. Granted this bluff is less likely since the bet is only 2/3 pot)
What's the reason for betting so big, particularly on the flop? I'd probably bet less than half-pot on this flop with my entire range: Value bets are called by a wider range, bluffs are cheaper and it sets things up for our opponents to raise lighter. In a 3-bet pot we don't need to bet so big on the flop to play for stacks by the river because the SPR is much smaller. (We've set up the SPR to be a little bit small for us to be bluffing river. As above, it's also tougher for villain to bluff with this SPR)
Thoughts?
[QUOTE A few dynamic dependent thoughts: Why would villain call flop and turn with a flush draw if our perceived range is so light? If he knows what he's doing, wouldn't he raise us off our air at some point with equity? If that's the case, doesn't he rep only a house or better on this river with the shove? If we're given credit for a wide triple-barrelling range, when we check this river what do we rep? Do we always have "marginal" showdown value? Therefore, if villain can never have air, can he be turning a weak showdown hand like Jx or Tx into a bluff, knowing he doesn't beat our range? (We can't be bluff-catching because the most credible draw has hit. Granted this bluff is less likely since the bet is only 2/3 pot)
Disagree with pretty much all of this. If villain raises us on the flop/turn they are turning there flush draw/air face up imo. What value hands are the villain gonna be raising in this spot? Close to none I would imagine. Flatting is much better as it keeps the villain's range tons wider on the flop/turn.
If Gazza has a wider range than most regs why would villain be turning 10x/Jx into a bluff? Given the positions btn v blinds villain is just gonna have way to much showdown value a large % of the time for this to be +ev. In this spot I would assume villain is gonna snap check back 10x/Jx so often.
Do agree that we should be betting smaller with our entire range on the flop though :P
As I said, they're dynamic dependent thoughts.
Further to that dynamic: If he wouldn't be expected to raise flush draws on the turn, then why wouldn't he?
On the river, why would villain turn his Jx hands into bluff? Well, to repeat, because Gazza hasn't triple-barrelled when he may otherwise be expected to. This may indicate that he always has a hand of marginal value and he's concerned about the flush. If that's the dynamic, not shoving would be a mistake.
1) You could argue I can get value from worse hands on the river. However I cant bet/fold river due to my stack size... and doing anything other than shoving for value looks really suspiscious. Although villain can give me credit for 3 barrelling a good % of time, this does not always mean he will call worse. What hand do we think villain can call a 3 bet with, then call on the flop and turn and then shove a river? Is he ever shoving a hand with showdown (like A10) when he knows I have a tonne of air in my range? Whats the point... he's only going to get called by better.
2) Just cause I can 3 barrell here with air, doesnt mean I always am. Why would villain raise in position into a draw like this. This turns his hand face up. He is never raising flop or turn with a 10 or J... or even 10J. He'd only be repping the flush draw or trip 5s by raising imo... Plus say he had AQss... if i have air a lot in my range here... its likely he can have the best hand anyway. Calling allows me to barrel worse whilst giving him an opportunity to realise his equity on the river before commiting his stack.
3) No. I do not have a hand with marginal showdown a lot when i check the river. Knowing he has called the turn is enough information to know he is unlikely to fold the river... especially when a spade falls and hits his range smack in the face. So I give up with my bluffs here a lot... which means that there is no need to turn his bluff catching hands into a bluff at this point. Yes he can turn his showdown hands into a bluff, but this seems unlikely. The villain probably thinks Jx or 10x is good at this point and there would be no point in betting, especially as he knows i dont like folding big made hands.
4) Why do i bet big on flop? That is something i did on purpose in this case v this specific villain. This is something I dont really want to get into because ultimately i did it based on something he had told me. However this is related to how villain percieves my bet sizing compared to my hand strength.
5) Precisely.
1) This seems to talk about two different points.
i) Whether or not we can bet the river for value (which would of course be a shove) depends entirely on how often and how light we're going to triple-barrel bluff or, more precisely, how often we're perceived to do so. The fact that the flush draw has come in should make it more likely that we're perceived to be bluffing. Neither we nor the villain should have that many draws in our range, but the villain may or may not give us credit for repping it, so villain could be bluff-catching with just a Ten or Jack.
ii) Whether villain can be turning a Ten into a bluff on the river or not depends on how often our check is perceived to be a marginal hand worried about the flush or better. That will depend on how often we're perceived to triple-barrel as a bluff. The point, though, would be that if he's holding a Tx hand, he could get you to fold better by shoving. If you're always barrelling bluffs and always barrelling monsters, then the check must mean his bluff-catching Tx can't be good... It's a levelling question, but it depends how good the villain is and what the dynamic is between us. Evidently you don't think that's likely here.
2) Say villain has 78s. By raising turn he may only represent a flush draw, but if he can get you to fold Ax, Kx, Qx or whatever, then that's good for him and most of those hands can't call. Presumably JJ and TT are also in his range at this point, so if he's not going to be given credit for raising those on the turn, he could raise them to gain maximum value from your own bluff-catching hands. It's also better for him to raise here than check and allow you to bet the river if he's holding a hand that must improve to win. If he believes you can bet the river a lot with air, he is going to lose both when you have a made hand and when you don't as he's holding that 8-high - More dynamics and levelling.
3) Whether the spade smacks his range in the face is an interesting question. Are there more flush draws in his range than Tx or Jx? You say you don't like folding big hands but you did fold QQ here. Presumably you also fold Jx, KK and AA too. How many better hands than that do you think are in your perceived range? Can't have many trips so it's going to be flushes, TT and JJ... but wouldn't you just bet those anyway?
You may be saying that you've made a very uncharacteristic fold here but I'm just looking at this one hand. If it is typical, then this is a great spot for villain to bluff. (And, as we're coming onto, it's tougher for his shove to be seen as a bluff. That makes it an even better spot for a bluff)
4) Fair enough.
5) The fact that it's tougher for the villain to be able bluff this river is bad for us. That we can't easily be given credit for bluffing this river is bad for us too. In the long run, we lose value because of both. We want to be able to shove the river and be given credit for those bluffs and we want to be able to check the river to the villain to allow him to bluff... obviously not so much when the draws hit but when they miss.
We need to be setting up the SPR to allow bluffs on the river.
We can make it all very convoluted but there may certainly be justifications for shoving the river or check-calling the river. Apparently you don't think either is a good idea against this villain... so really you've answered your own questions. Check-folding's good.
I think you have to fold the river. Let's look at the hand all the way through:
Pre obv fine, you crush my button range and I'm going to take us to the streets with plenty worse. I'm also capable of flatting my entire range here so I don't think we should cap my range just yet (others feel free to correct me if you think I'm wrong).
Flop is tricky for both of us to hit. It's probably a good bad one for me to float. I have a flush draw to rep but anything I do is pretty thin if I have complete air. So when I call you have to assume I have something, yeah there will be some spewy/brilliant (delete as appropriate) floats in here. Remember I'm playing your 3bet range and you have to bear in mind what range I am putting you on. Any pair I peel pre with I'm peeling here too tbh. I also wouldn't expect too many raises from me here. We're seeing the turn a ton, either as an extension of an unlikely float (more likely with a FD or two overs, some equity v your range), a trap with monster value or the range you really want, a mostly worse value range.
On the turn I call again. I think the absolute bottom end of my range here is two overs with a FD and GS. I could have JJ easily, also will prob have worse pairs sometimes, still Tx, still AA-QQ. Total air is more unlikely as I've left one street to convince you you are beat. Possible yes if checked to, would also rep a flush if I felt I could convince you. Look at the pot size tho, air is exceptionally unlikely as if you put in the first river bet, I don't have a shot. I would say I had some combo draw, strong board one/two pair, A3s sometimes or equity combo of overs/FD/GS. We should still be confident we are mostly ahead here, however we don't have my range crushed. Side point, I think you fold out some FDs I have here which have missed BD straights and are unpaired.
River is awful, improves my range and as soon as you check I know it is unlikely to improve yours. Why? Because I have to check/back so much here. Should you jam the river yourself? Closer than you think but I think no. Would I spew hero here some, perhaps, I've been known. But you look mega strong firing all and you'd be practically bluffing. You'd be relying on me making a mistake, possible obv.
I jam. I've either got the flush, FH or had you all along with KK or AA. I would check back sometimes which KK+ as well as I'd be trying to get value from a more narrow range and owning in the rare spots you are trapping. There's just too much that beats you and while you might have a nagging feeling I have set some elaborate ploy, when you study the hand, just me trying it in this manner is probably bad play. So work out what level I'm on, am I ahead mostly here?
Here be spoilers obviously.
I sip my 18th cup of tea of the day from a well worn mug and glance over my screen. I look at this spot where I see AJ in spades and it's unopened on the button. Clear open. I also feel both blinds are liable to defend/3bet comparatively wide portions of their range. I get 3bet. It's part of the deal. I am in position, I have a hand which will be ahead a decent amount of the time, flops ok but not strong enough to get in for this many BBs in general and hope to be decently profitable. Easy call and let's play some poker. To the streets.
Flop I expect Gazza to cbet nearly always. I am still ahead of a good section of his range, I crush his draws, I have the NFD, I have position. We can take away later if we feel we can enough, we can make a hand, we can just plainly be ahead. Do I raise the cbet? Am I getting it in profitably? I have good equity but against his GII range here for these stacks I can't count both overs as live, I don't think Gazza is happily getting in worse flush draws enough and I can easily be drawing to a running Royal/FH. Which despite the hype is hard for me to hit I would fold out too much air, I expect a second barrel, I have to call in this spot mostly.
Turn's fun. I have picked up TP/TK. Gazza fires again. This time smaller but I now have less than a Pot Sized bet behind. We're now discounting some middle pairs he would 3bet pre, won't need to bluff him off those then There's still air/worse draws/now some worse value hands in his range. I have the general feel he's more weighted to value here though just on sizing. I call to decide on the river. I'm not on auto call down here. I have plenty of ways to improve if behind and if I jam I get bad news more than good if he calls imo while folding out all the worse draws I still have crushed. He may have picked up some straight draws so I am wary, as I am of JJ although I block this so it's very hard for him to have that one combo.
River is welcome. I now have the nut flush on a paired board. And get checked to. As the hand is played out I just see no reason for him to check better as I have to check back so much with showdown. However I am slightly perturbed he now is unlikely to have the worse flush. Confident I am nearly always ahead I jam, hoping for a mistake more than anything. I can't really do anything but jam.
I see him tank fold. I grimace a little but stay happy as if the board was say a 6h, I might well be put in an awful spot. I sip more tea.
to make the call you gotta him on 99,AxJx into a bluff, turn folds out all air
sometimes the fish get there
I'd bet smaller on the flop as well as it's pretty dry and otherwise it's hard to get more than 1 street of value out of many hands you're ahead of. River is a fold imo.