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can someone help me understand something ed giddins said please
I was watching primo final table other day. Player with 10-10 pushed on blinds and was calls by A-K s. Ed went on to say that 10-10 is a bigger favourite against A-Jand A-Q than A-K. I don't understand. 2 overcards regardless must have same odds of winning right ? 6 outs with 5 cards to come. They share the same range of straight outs odds-wise so........ can someone help please or am I a bit thick ?
Comments
Maybe its more likely the aj or aq wud fold to the raise ? Thats all I can think of.....
DOHH
Hi shelski,
Ed was perfectly correct - but the difference is so small as to make no difference at all. And I do mean small!
Here are the odds (pre-flop) for all three options. I have assumed neutral suits.
T-T v A-K, the Tens are 57.12% to win.
T-T v A-Q, the Tens are 57.20% to win.
T-T v A-J, the Tens are 57.27% to win.
So, overall, at most, the difference is 0.15% - that's one seventh of one per cent.
Stats & %'s are weird things, eh?
It's the relation of the kicker of the ace to straight possibility of the pocket pair making a straight.
AJ hitting the J against tens gives a better straight range of the other four cards for the tens than if the K hits AK.
The percentage is very small but over thousands of hands will play out.
I am a geek.
Sometimes the overcards are a (tiny) favourite against the pair. From memory JT suited is a favourite over pocket sixes & lower that do not share any of the suit of the overs. This is down to the small flush/straight chances and the lack of straight/flush blockers.
Again from memory I believe AK suited v 22 is a true 50/50 (we're bringing in double board pair odds to counterfeit as well).
It just re-inforces what TommyD said.
He was pointing out that AK is a big favourite against AJ and AQ, but slightly worse than 50/50 against TT. Ed argued that the player with AK, who opened the pot for a raise, should fold to a shove (from the guy with TT), because there's only a couple of hands in his opponent's range that he's crushing.
Ed then asked the question: if you were in this situation - chipleader at the final table - would you call with AK...
a) against an unknown hand?
b) knowing your opponent had TT?
For the record, Ed answered "no" and "no".