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Did I eventually make the correct decision?

edited March 2014 in Cash Strategy
I don't think I've ever played the SB or BB before and hadn't been sat down long.  The button I've seen a few times and appears reasonably competent TAG player, it's certainly not one of those instances where I think I'm being 3-bet super-light, although I kind of feel like he'd go bigger if it was AA or KK.

My initial raise was a mis-click of sorts, I clicked the mouse on the '+' twice (ro raise to 3x) but it didn't register my 2nd click... must take more care (I seem to do this way too frequently).
PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
DarlowSmall blind  £0.05 £0.05 £24.74
LichajBig blind  £0.10 £0.15 £17.82
  Your hole cards
  • J
  • 9
     
LascellesFold     
shakinaces Raise  £0.20 £0.35 £19.80
HobbsRaise  £0.50 £0.85 £19.50
DarlowCall  £0.45 £1.30 £24.29
LichajCall  £0.40 £1.70 £17.42
shakinaces Call  £0.30 £2.00 £19.50
Flop
   
  • Q
  • J
  • 5
     
DarlowBet  £1.00 £3.00 £23.29
LichajCall  £1.00 £4.00 £16.42
shakinaces Call  £1.00 £5.00 £18.50
HobbsRaise  £10.20 £15.20 £9.30
DarlowFold     
LichajFold     
shakinaces ????   
Mis-click aside I'm not unhappy with the open.

I'd have not called the 3-bet if the blinds had folded - if I was further into the session I may have 4-bet, but most likely I'd have folded.  As it is, it felt like 3x into a pot of 17x (with me closing the betting) was almost obligatory.

As mentioned, don't know the players in the blinds. Assumed the donk and call (after cold-calling 3b oop) was likely to be medium pairs and / or various combinations of flush/straight draws.

I figure to be in reasonable shape versus these holdings, albeit I could end up in a dominated position re flushes or two-pairs (AdXd isn't impossible, KT means hitting 2-pair would leave me in a tough spot).

I don't see anyway I can not fold to the button raise, although I did toy with just jamming my stack. I'm figuring most likely holding is QQ or JJ that hopes someone will punt with a flush/OESD/both or even 55. I don't think there was enough money already in the pot to gamble my whole stack?

Either way I think folding is right... but was I one or two spots late in binning my cards?

Comments

  • edited February 2014
    I think he is on a a large PP, so set of JJ's or QQ's with possible shove from AA/KK hoping to get rid of all the people on a really draw heavy board. Not sure exactly on BTN, as it is an odd sized 3bet and was fair chance to promote some action, as you may well not fold for what was barely over a min-r.

    Your not really getting the right odds on the flush draw alone, but against hand range of AdKd, AdJd, JJ+, JQ and AQ you are about 45% equity. So for me it's a +ev (+1.8) call if we can assign that range. And I think this is his likely range (except JQ) given preflop action. And taking JQ off is better for our odds in case you wonder.
  • edited February 2014
    I would raise the flop to try and get it in there, so as played I would go over the top
  • edited February 2014
    Obviously the minraise pre was a misclick so ignoring that I think you played it perfect.

    Can't fold pre imo, no point raising the flop, and when someone raises 2x the pot 4way here we are just in SUCH bad shape. We have no FE v that villian and the best case scenario is probably AKdd but way more often than not this will be a set imo.

    Wp
  • edited February 2014
    In Response to Re: Did I eventually make the correct decision?:
    Obviously the minraise pre was a misclick so ignoring that I think you played it perfect. Can't fold pre imo, no point raising the flop, and when someone raises 2x the pot 4way here we are just in SUCH bad shape. We have no FE v that villian and the best case scenario is probably AKdd but way more often than not this will be a set imo. Wp
    Posted by Lambert180
    Not so sure  you can limit his range to a set at this level. Think just as often you'd be facing AA or KK as well. And on that basis because of the pot odds this is a +ev call even if you limit him just to JJ+ as his range. It's +1.3 EV if hiis range is JJ+. The only way it is -EV is if it is a set, and are we always going to assume this?

    Guess it's a choice and an opinion, but I just can't limit their range that tight at this buiin level, as you'll gte exactly the same thing from people with AA or KK as well very often because they won't want to give it up or play it carefully.
  • edited February 2014

    Think you have played it fine.

    Like flatting the flop.
     
    As played it's a fold, mainly because we have 0 fold equity.

    Just jamming and taking a effective flip is not good cash game stategy imo.

  • edited February 2014
    In Response to Re: Did I eventually make the correct decision?:
    Think you have played it fine. Like flatting the flop.   As played it's a fold, mainly because we have 0 fold equity. Just jamming and taking a effective flip is not good cash game stategy imo.
    Posted by 77Chris91
    I don't get why you guys are saying this. Yes, 100% fold if we calling for even or near even money, but we aren't here. If we can say for sure it is a set every time then it's a fold too, but are we really thinking it is always a set? Not in my experience of players at low stakes.

    £9 call into£15 pot is +£1.3 ev against a range limited to JJ+. Sure sometimes it will be a set, but you can bet at this level some of the time it will be KK/AA as well, and maybe other hands as well. Absolute fold if even money call though. Not sure what the heck people are talking about fold equity for when it's a choice of call or fold. Or are you talking about the fold equity villian has?
  • edited February 2014
    Thanks for the replies all - always helpful to hear some alternative points of view.

    I think it is fair to put the villain on all big pairs JJ+, AKdd and maybe even as little as AdKx/AdQx?
     
    I suppose then it comes down to the effect of rake, which I always struggle to factor into my thinking when I have plenty of time, let alone when I've got 15 seconds to click a button! 

    What equity do I need to have in a pot in order to justify a call?  I mean, if I'm pure flipping here (50% equity), I have to fold because the rake will make the call -EV, right?

    I struggle in the same way when someone makes the play to shove the river on a four- or five-straight board, which I'm 90% certain will be a split pot.

    In short, I really need to find a simple way to factor in the impact of rake!
  • edited February 2014
    In Response to Re: Did I eventually make the correct decision?:
    Thanks for the replies all - always helpful to hear some alternative points of view. I think it is fair to put the villain on all big pairs JJ+, AKdd and maybe even as little as AdKx/AdQx?   I suppose then it comes down to the effect of rake, which I always struggle to factor into my thinking when I have plenty of time, let alone when I've got 15 seconds to click a button!  What equity do I need to have in a pot in order to justify a call?  I mean, if I'm pure flipping here (50% equity), I have to fold because the rake will make the call -EV, right? I struggle in the same way when someone makes the play to shove the river on a four- or five-straight board, which I'm 90% certain will be a split pot. In short, I really need to find a simple way to factor in the impact of rake!
    Posted by shakinaces
    Rake is actually pretty ridonkulous here at low limits, as it is 7.5% of the pot with a max of 70p with two people in the hand. 3+ and it is still 7.5% but with a max of £1.40.

    So, if it was just two people you'd still have a +ev call, if assuming just JJ+ as range. However if sky sees the whole pot has having 3+ in it would become -ev call. If it divides it, then it would get more complicated. Either way the rake at 10nl and down is pretty nasty.

    Rake over 10nl is 5% with max of £1.00 for 2 players and £1.80 with 3+ players in pot. As is usual the higher limits you play the less effected by rake you are.

    You would of course have to factor in points though as well, as to if you should worry about rake in your call choice. Earning enough points you get rakeback and money. And while I play a little on sky, I don't play enough to have worked all of this out. Certainly guys earning the big points and recieving 20%-30% rakeback plus the cash I doubt need bother with this math in their ev calculations.
  • edited February 2014
    It was a set Shakin' and feel free to leave my name in if any hands come up again. 

    I think I blew you all out of the water here and should have bet slightly less but its this kind of spot that gets me in trouble since I have terrible disclipine on the turn and would hate to fold.
  • edited March 2014
    In Response to Re: Did I eventually make the correct decision?:
    Obviously the minraise pre was a misclick so ignoring that I think you played it perfect. Can't fold pre imo, no point raising the flop, and when someone raises 2x the pot 4way here we are just in SUCH bad shape. We have no FE v that villian and the best case scenario is probably AKdd but way more often than not this will be a set imo. Wp
    Posted by Lambert180
    Not sure why you think there is no point in raising the flop. We likely don't have the best hand already; however, we have a good amount of equity vs most made hands and given the flop action before it gets to us we have no reason to suspect someone is sitting with one of the few hands we aren't in that good shape against (QJ and sets) - so raising puts pressure on a lot of one pair hands as well as getting value from worse draws (we are ahead of every draw except KdTd which is a 56.87% fave and AdTd we're pretty much flipping)

    Calling and playing passive is likely going to leave us lost on turns when we miss - and if we do hit our draw not only is it pretty obvious but it's a non-nut draw so we could be in a RIO situation by just flatting. HU less of a worry but 4 way (which is possible after action) then it would be a potential worry.

    As we played it though we can probably get away from it if we think villain is pretty ABC tight here.

    board: QdJc5d
    HandEquityWinsTies
    Jd9d36.49%5,7793
    QJ, QQ, JJ, 55, AdTd, KdTd, Ad8d63.51%10,0583

    If we think villain can have AQ/KK/AA and lots of worse FD's (ie just bare Ace high FD's) then it would be a big mistake not to get it in. So all about how you percieve villain really.
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