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It's All About the Percentages...

edited March 2014 in Poker Chat
I could look to Google, I guess, but I'm eating lunch so my hands are full... besides, it's more interesting asking you lot.

Are you statistically more or less likely to hit a set or trips on the flop?

Comments

  • edited March 2014
    Surely the raw percentages should be the same, it doesn't matter where the three Jacks or whatever lie, 2 in the hand and 1 on the board or vice versa, it's just three of five known cars being the same.

    (that's without taking into account unknowns like home many times you play a hand with a pocket pair (so you can hit a set) against how may times you play unmatched pocket cards (so you can hit trips)
  • edited March 2014
    engage brain guys
    is it more likely you find 2 of the same in the box of 2 or the box of 3
  • edited March 2014
    In Response to Re: It's All About the Percentages...:
    Surely the raw percentages should be the same, it doesn't matter where the three Jacks or whatever lie, 2 in the hand and 1 on the board or vice versa, it's just three of five known cars being the same. (that's without taking into account unknowns like home many times you play a hand with a pocket pair (so you can hit a set) against how may times you play unmatched pocket cards (so you can hit trips)
    Posted by FCHD
    Yeah, I figured it should be the same. Assuming you played every hand, the percentages have to be identical, don't they?
  • edited March 2014
    In Response to Re: It's All About the Percentages...:
    engage brain guys is it more likely you find 2 of the same in the box of 2 or the box of 3
    Posted by GELDY
    How very dare you!

    It's my lunch break - I set the brain aside until 2pm!
  • edited March 2014
    I dare
    but mainly because I am on my mobile and lost my first response
    otherwise you may have had more sugar coating
  • edited March 2014

    The following assumes you see a flop with 100% of all hands;

    5.88% of the time you will be dealt a pocket pair, 11.8% of the time that pair will improve to a set on the flop.

    Therefore 5.88% x 11.8% = 0.69% of the time, or 1/144 hands, you will flop a set.

    The other 94.12% of the time you will be dealt two unpaired hands. 1.35% of those times you will flop trips.

    So 94.12% x 1.35% = 1.27% of the time, or 1/78 hands, you will flop trips.

    Therefore trips come along roughly twice as often as sets.

    In practice there's no exact answer. It will vary from player to player according to how often they like to see flops. Nits who fold almost all unpaired hands pre-flop will see sets far more often than they will see trips. Loose pre-flop players who see a ton of flops will find themselves looking at trips far more frequently than the nits.

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