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do i shove my hand on the river or should i just make the fold on the flop

normally I'm thinking he will bet with lots of draws but with it being the early stages of the mega roller and him being OOP i was confidient he was holding two pair or set.
when the turn brought J i tried using that as a chance to bluff a straight but when he calls I'm thinking he might have put me on KJ or KQ but then again I'm thinking he could be just seeing if the full house comes on the river.

Then when i see the 3rd diamond come on the river I'm now thought their was a great chance to steal the pot but at the same time i was concerned thinking he might think I'm bluffing.

would doing the jam on this river be enough to make a very good MTT player fold or should i have just folded myself on the flop
AB0151 Small blind  80.00 80.00 10535.00
MattBates Big blind  160.00 240.00 17500.00
  Your hole cards
  • A
  • Q
     
9se7enTr3y Fold     
craigcu12 Raise  320.00 560.00 17980.00
Claytov Fold     
Big_Baz49 Fold     
AB0151 Fold     
MattBates Call  160.00 720.00 17340.00
Flop
   
  • 10
  • Q
  • 7
     
MattBates Check     
craigcu12 Bet  480.00 1200.00 17500.00
MattBates Raise  1440.00 2640.00 15900.00
craigcu12 Call  960.00 3600.00 16540.00
Turn
   
  • J
     
MattBates Bet  1260.00 4860.00 14640.00
craigcu12 Raise  3800.00 8660.00 12740.00
MattBates Call  2540.00 11200.00 12100.00
River
   
  • 6
     
MattBates Check     
craigcu12 ?

Comments

  • edited March 2014
    I hate raising the turn, by doing that we're deffo turning out hand into a bluff imo, we can't get called by worse and I don't think we're making any better hands fold. So if he is bluffing, you've just made him fold and if he isn't bluffing you're just value towning yourself imo.

    Give up on river, don't think he's folding once he c/r flop then calls a raise on the turn.

    FWIW, I don't expect him to lead pretty much any hand on the flop seen as you're the preflop aggressor.
  • edited March 2014
    I'd be suprised if Matt doesnt have QT, TT, or 77 here with a CR on that flop

    the fact he didnt Jam the turn makes me lean towards QT specifically. 

    lambo is right, the raise on the turn is pretty bad on top of what lamert has said, the amount you raised by is probably about the size of matts river bet if you hadn't raised... so you could have gotten to showdown for the same price.

    I actually dont think it would be a terrible jam on the river, but you would definatly be bluffing and trying to get him to fold QT or 77 - you have taken an extremely stong line and could represent AK, KdQd, AdQd, QJ, QQ, JJ, TT pretty well. 
  • edited March 2014

    Now you have taken this line, jamming river is good imo.

    Think Q10/77 folds a decent % of the time here.

  • edited March 2014
    In Response to Re: do i shove my hand on the river or should i just make the fold on the flop:
    I hate raising the turn, by doing that we're deffo turning out hand into a bluff imo, we can't get called by worse and I don't think we're making any better hands fold. So if he is bluffing, you've just made him fold and if he isn't bluffing you're just value towning yourself imo. Give up on river, don't think he's folding once he c/r flop then calls a raise on the turn. FWIW, I don't expect him to lead pretty much any hand on the flop seen as you're the preflop aggressor.
    Posted by Lambert180
    craig said in OP:
    when the turn brought J i tried using that as a chance to bluff a straight
     
    So I'm pretty sure that he intentionally was turning his hand into a bluff and personally I think it's a very good play especially when Matt's turn bet is on the small size because it just looks so much like he has QT/possibly 77 and trying to extract some 'thin value' -eg. with AQ and KK/AA you aren't liking this turn and would probably fold to a big sized bet but against a smaller bet it's very tempting to just call again.

    We can conceivably rep 89, possibly a small % of the time AK too. However, as Lambert pointed out he's probably not folding hands that beat you OTT, so for the turn raise to be a good play it has to be with the intention of barreling on nearly every river (exceptions are Qs and Ts, maybe 9's too) - So yes, you have to follow through with your plan and bluff the river.

  • edited March 2014
    I should have made my point clearer, we're turning our hand into a bluff when I don't think we should. 

    If as Melt says its QT/77/TT on the flop then its an easy fold obv. When we flat we must assume he has bluffs and draws.

    Can't have it both ways, either he has bluffs/draws so don't think we should turn it into a bluff OR he doesn't have many bluffs/draws and its mostly hands that crush us, then we could turn it into a bluff but then why are we calling flop in the first place.
  • edited March 2014
    In Response to Re: do i shove my hand on the river or should i just make the fold on the flop:
    Now you have taken this line, jamming river is good imo. Think Q10/77 folds a decent % of the time here.
    Posted by 77Chris91
    ive played mattbates many many times and he would not be folding any of these hands
  • edited March 2014
    In Response to Re: do i shove my hand on the river or should i just make the fold on the flop:
    In Response to Re: do i shove my hand on the river or should i just make the fold on the flop : ive played mattbates many many times and he would not be folding any of these hands
    Posted by THEROCK573
    Fair enough.

    Think we can rep AK/Flushes really well here though as played.

    For the reasons Ivan said if we raise the turn we gotta jam the river really imo.

    Personally I'm not turning AQ into a bluff here I'm just flatting the turn.
  • edited March 2014
    In Response to Re: do i shove my hand on the river or should i just make the fold on the flop:
    I should have made my point clearer, we're turning our hand into a bluff when I don't think we should.  If as Melt says its QT/77/TT on the flop then its an easy fold obv. When we flat we must assume he has bluffs and draws. Can't have it both ways, either he has bluffs/draws so don't think we should turn it into a bluff OR he doesn't have many bluffs/draws and its mostly hands that crush us, then we could turn it into a bluff but then why are we calling flop in the first place.
    Posted by Lambert180
    I did take a bit time on the flop. the thing that tempted me to make the call was i still saw the possibility  of him putting me on AK  KJ J9s or 98s so as he is OOP by just calling top pair he could have lost value as i would just check the turn if he didn't donk and then on the river too. so i still saw the chance of QJ KQ and AQ.
  • edited March 2014
    This is my point craig ^

    So you think he can have lots of bluffs and draws and yet you decide to bluff yourself. All the hands you just mentioned above either turned better hands than us (89s, AK) or are still bluffing so why would you try to bluff a bluff. When you raise you just value town yourself against all his better hands and make him fold all his bluffs. 

    In short, can you name the hands that are better than yours that will fold?

    Then can you name the hands that are worse than yours that will call?

    I think both lists will be vvvvv short.
  • edited March 2014
    If you have the minerals, great pot sized bet behind you to jam this river. Can deffo get Matt to fold better. It's a very strong line you've taken, and it's a far from easy call, even with 77, by the river.
  • edited April 2014

    It isn't matt that i'm saying could have AK KJ J9s and 98s, what I'm saying is he could be holding AQ KQ or QJ and was thinking himself that as a way to make the middle and small pairs fold i am cbetting with my draws AK KJ J9s and 98s (which i would be doing if it were them). 

    so if he just has top pair then on the turn i could charge KQ more for the open ender steal the pot away from his AQ and if it were two pair or a set he had on the flop then i might be able to turn my hand into a bluff.

    TBH the main fear was weather he has QJ but even that could well fold. 

    edit: if i did flop a straight with my 98 or AKs i would be raising on the turn as i did still see KQ QJ Q10 and sets wanting to call.

    the only hand i saw that was behind on the turn is KQ.
    the hands i see ahead which I'm thinking might fold the river are Q10 QJ, 77 and maybe even 1010

  • edited April 2014
    The result was i shouldn't have choose to call the turn because truthfully i didn't ship it on the river instead i just did a half pot bet.
    matt himself was thinking very hard about it and i was thinking he would be folding it but he called it at the last second which made me regret my decision.
    AB0151 Small blind   80.00 80.00 10535.00
    MattBates Big blind   160.00 240.00 17500.00
      Your hole cards
    • A
    • Q
         
    9se7enTr3y Fold        
    craigcu12 Raise   320.00 560.00 17980.00
    Claytov Fold        
    Big_Baz49 Fold        
    AB0151 Fold        
    MattBates Call   160.00 720.00 17340.00
    Flop
       
    • 10
    • Q
    • 7
         
    MattBates Check        
    craigcu12 Bet   480.00 1200.00 17500.00
    MattBates Raise   1440.00 2640.00 15900.00
    craigcu12 Call   960.00 3600.00 16540.00
    Turn
       
    • J
         
    MattBates Bet   1260.00 4860.00 14640.00
    craigcu12 Raise   3800.00 8660.00 12740.00
    MattBates Call   2540.00 11200.00 12100.00
    River
       
    • 6
         
    MattBates Check        
    craigcu12 Bet   5600.00 16800.00 7140.00
    MattBates Call   5600.00 22400.00 6500.00
    craigcu12 Show
    • A
    • Q
         
    MattBates Show
    • 10
    • Q
         
    MattBates Win Two Pairs, Queens and 10s 22400.00   28900.00
  • edited April 2014
    Think you might have let him off the hook on the river. Whilst I think an all in would be fine, even just making it 9k into the 11k+ pot is gonna leave him with like 20bb if he calls and is wrong. Just the half pot bet means he can feasibly call this, despite not exactly loving life, and if he is beat then can grind away from a 40bb stack in a good structured MTT.

    I actually like your line and thought process in the hand Craig, and you picked a good villain to do this against (ie not some random fish who snaps with 2 pair on this river). Few more K on the river and it might have got through. A big bet on the river is essentially saying 'I'm not setting you all in, but it's almost for your tourney life, do you really wanna call it off?'
  • edited April 2014
    That Jd on the turn was the absolute best non A card i could have hoped for as it has given me lots of cards that seem to be a big risk for him to call. (IMO)

    the ones i would have chosen to just check if they came were any non diamond card 2-6, 10, J or Q because those going to be likely called by sets and if the second J were the card I'm ahead of Q10 anyway.

    the ones which this bet would have been a bit risky with is if the card was a non diamond A, 8 or 7 as those still have some risk of a call but make more obvious hands such as KK and AA.

    the cards I'm thinking would have been sure to see him fold his hand is if they were any diamond, K or 9 (unless he had KQ) as now he would be taking a big risk calling his whole stack knowing that i could have been holding AKs AQs KQs 98s.

    my mistake on the river was i thought a bit too about getting any Q10 Q7 107 1010 and 77 to fold that i didn't take into account that these hands that I'm wanting to fold will not be able to provide the flush.
  • edited April 2014
    I think the problem is the range you rep is pretty narrow if he has 2p+ which he prob does after turn action

    While I don't hate what you are trying to do I think there is an element of fps to this hand, think you can pick your spots better
  • edited April 2014
    In Response to Re: do i shove my hand on the river or should i just make the fold on the flop:
    I think the problem is the range you rep is pretty narrow if he has 2p+ which he prob does after turn action While I don't hate what you are trying to do I think there is an element of fps to this hand, think you can pick your spots better
    Posted by grantorino
    this is where my question relating to the call on the flop comes into question. if i'm going to call the flop then i have to be thinking i'm ahead of some hands and really the only hand i see with that possibility is KQ and QJ.

    really that jd card was the only one i saw which would give me the chance to turn my hand into bluff anything else and i was sure to fold.

    the main hands i was trying to rep were AKs (except AcKc) KdQd AdQd QQ and 98s. most times i would have folded the turn.

    It was with this villian being matt that i saw a chance to attempt that bluff. most others would just look at their 2 pair and snap call but matt will know that my range of hands are likely to be them i said above.
  • edited April 2014
    Lambert we call the flop because we think we're good enough against Matt's range but when he fires again on this turn card then we are not looking so good any more against his range. We might still be ahead some % of the time but most of the time we just aren't good anymore. If turn was a blank 2 then obviously raising to turn our hand into a bluff would be very weird/bad indeed. As craig correctly pointed out it was only this particular card that made turning our hand into a bluff a viable option.

    Like hhyftrftdr said I also like the play and just think it needed a bit more conviction with a larger river bet and it might very well have got a fold since Matt's hand of QT is only a bluff catcher by the river.

    Suppose we had just flat the turn and river is a blank 2, what do we do if he bets again say half pot? 
  • edited April 2014
    In Response to Re: do i shove my hand on the river or should i just make the fold on the flop:
    Lambert we call the flop because we think we're good enough against Matt's range but when he fires again on this turn card then we are not looking so good any more against his range. We might still be ahead some % of the time but most of the time we just aren't good anymore. If turn was a blank 2 then obviously raising to turn our hand into a bluff would be very weird/bad indeed. As craig correctly pointed out it was only this particular card that made turning our hand into a bluff a viable option. Like hhyftrftdr said I also like the play and just think it needed a bit more conviction with a larger river bet and it might very well have got a fold since Matt's hand of QT is only a bluff catcher by the river. Suppose we had just flat the turn and river is a blank 2, what do we do if he bets again say half pot? 
    Posted by F_Ivanovic
    My problem with this is that I think Matt is very very rarely ever gonna take this line on the flop, then check the turn... if he were shallower he might be a bit more cautious on certain turns but I think this deep we're gonna be facing 2 more barrels (assuming we don't raise) ALOT. So imo we're virtually always gonna be facing a bet on the turn and we should be aware of this when we decide to call the flop.

    For that reason, I don't think his range changes hugely from flop to turn. He still barrels his bluffs (it's as scary a turn card for us as it is for him... to the point where we've definitely decided our hand is no good anymore), his sets, his 2pr, hands where he may c/r the flop and have got there like AK etc.


  • edited April 2014
    In Response to Re: do i shove my hand on the river or should i just make the fold on the flop:
    In Response to Re: do i shove my hand on the river or should i just make the fold on the flop : My problem with this is that I think Matt is very very rarely ever gonna take this line on the flop, then check the turn... if he were shallower he might be a bit more cautious on certain turns but I think this deep we're gonna be facing 2 more barrels (assuming we don't raise) ALOT. So imo we're virtually always gonna be facing a bet on the turn and we should be aware of this when we decide to call the flop. For that reason, I don't think his range changes hugely from flop to turn. He still barrels his bluffs (it's as scary a turn card for us as it is for him... to the point where we've definitely decided our hand is no good anymore), his sets, his 2pr, hands where he may c/r the flop and have got there like AK etc.
    Posted by Lambert180
    the risk with choosing to semi bluff on the flop is he will be leaving himself OOP with me only likely to be holding the premium hands AKs AA KK QQ AQ KQ sets  and draws.

    the hand i would rule out right away but is AK because if he is this aggressive with it on flops like this then why would he have just called it preflop?
    he might have 98 but i'm thinking he going to go all in on the turn with that as now i've shown the strength of QJ a set or AKs AQs KQs and he might be behind to AK but would have loads of hands in my range which are potential threats so surely he will want to charge them now.

    as for J9 and KJ well if they are in his range i want to charge more on the turn rather than just call because i think a blank on the river and he is going to check his draw as my range will consist of two pair sets or maybe over pairs frequently.

    so although his semi bluffs might cause the J to be as much of a danger to me as it is to him.
    him choosing to semi bluff on the flop is posing as a real danger if the turn is a blank since it will leave him being called by the sets overpairs and two pairs.
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