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Player | Action | Cards | Amount | Pot | Balance |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
lJAMESl | Small blind | £0.50 | £0.50 | £483.37 | |
chicob | Big blind | £1.00 | £1.50 | £72.88 | |
Your hole cards |
| ||||
russia | Fold | ||||
Lambert180 | Raise | £3.00 | £4.50 | £127.02 | |
BognorBoyz | Fold | ||||
JoeySmooth | Call | £3.00 | £7.50 | £100.00 | |
lJAMESl | Raise | £13.50 | £21.00 | £469.87 | |
chicob | Fold | ||||
Lambert180 | Call | £11.00 | £32.00 | £116.02 | |
JoeySmooth | Fold | ||||
Flop | |||||
| |||||
lJAMESl | Bet | £24.00 | £56.00 | £445.87 | |
Comments
I think I'm looking to try and GII otf here as we are the right side (just) of flipping against overpairs, in front of AKc, and in trouble vs sets. We are crushing any cbets but if a bad turn card comes that is an overcard and not a club (and villain fires again) our hand doesn't look quite so good imo with just the one card to come.
Guess it comes down to what you know about villains 3bet squeezing range in the SB and what he might do vs you. How he plays the turn in 3bet pots etc...
At the time, I jammed and then the second I did it, I hated the jam and wished I'd flatted (I thought that before he acted/folded so not results orientated).
The thing is, I think my TP will be good here quite often but if I jam I'm effectively turning it into a bluff because I won't get called by worse except stuff like AKcc but even that hand is not in the worst shape in the world when it kills my FD.
So I think I should flat to keep in all his bluffs/worse value hands. If he jams turn then I'm calling regardless of what it is, even if it's an A/K, they're pretty good cards for him to bluff anyway and I still have 2pr/trip/flush outs as backup, so I think flatting is best to allow him to have another stab on the turn, and because I have position I know it'll never get checked through on the turn (unless I want it to).
I agree with this:
"The thing is, I think my TP will be good here quite often but if I jam I'm effectively turning it into a bluff because I won't get called by worse except stuff like AKcc but even that hand is not in the worst shape in the world when it kills my FD.
So I think I should flat to keep in all his bluffs/worse value hands. If he jams turn then I'm calling regardless of what it is, even if it's an A/K, they're pretty good cards for him to bluff anyway and I still have 2pr/trip/flush outs as backup, so I think flatting is best to allow him to have another stab on the turn, and because I have position I know it'll never get checked through on the turn (unless I want it to)."
I really dislike flatting here.
1) there is enough in the middle to win without getting to show down
2) if called atleast we have outs
What your saying is over complicating things, imo. "If flatting wins more long term" is so subjective and dependant on so many variables, i would say it's impossible to determine "if flatting wins more long term". Imo, jamming is better than flatting. If you flat there is a lot of turn cards we don't want to see, any AKQ (non club).
By jamming you take the initiative and put the decision back on the original raiser.
You are talking like your hand is the nuts, we have top pair with an ok kicker and a a decent draw. If the turn is another club, do you think you are getting paid on the rest of your stack? Maybe, mostly not.
By jamming you put the question back on your opponent.
If we are behind and called, atleast we have outs and have got it in while we have decent equity.
If he folds we have won the hand onto the next one.
What part of his range are we missing out on value by not flatting?
Point 1, "theres enough in the middle" AKA
If he folds happy days, if he calls no dramas:)
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I'm with Paul I think. Initial reaction is of course to look to get it in, only natural. Flatting might bring an uncomfortable turn card, but assuming we call flop to call off ANY turn card then that seems the best option to get max value. It's not like LjamesL is gonna struggle to fire a 2nd bullet
As Harry alludes to, there are no tough decisions, I'd be flatting the turn having already made the decision that I'm not folding to ANY turn card so my decision is easy/I already made it on the flop.
Yes he could be bluffing and we fold them out but he could just as easily have a strong hand (he has 3 bet OOP) that may shut down on a club or J or another broadway card.
Im just saying nothing is cetain. As I said before I am flatting because I would flat with a lot of hands and not just this particular one.
we are flipping vs james GII range
keeps our flatting range strong
we are IP and are calling every turn therefor realise our equity
Alot of the get it in now approach is to make our decision easier which shouldnt be the reason for doing something. Saying raiseing is bad was an over reaction, its never going to be -EV as someone mentioned before.
I agree with everything in the post above.
I'm no cash pro but would agree with Liam here