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if i'm expecting him to fold should i just jam?

edited April 2014 in Cash Strategy
i decided to check on the turnjust to take a free card because i was sure he would have still made one call with Qx and their is a chance he is chasing an A, the bet he then makes on the river i'm sure would see him fold raggy A that was just top pair, knowing that he will fold his raggy aces should i therefore have just shoved it in hope that he did have 2 pair rather than leave myself annoyed to see him just call this raise with 2 pair?
Lovey87 Small blind   £0.10 £0.10 £22.86
Dawson2010 Big blind   £0.20 £0.30 £36.76
  Your hole cards
  • K
  • 10
     
Lonsy Fold        
Curt360x27 Fold        
  Call   £0.20 £0.50 £51.57
craigcu12 Raise   £0.80 £1.30 £25.22
Lovey87 Fold        
Dawson2010 Fold        
  Call   £0.60 £1.90 £50.97
Flop
   
  • 6
  • 5
  • Q
     
  Check        
craigcu12 Bet   £0.80 £2.70 £24.42
  Call   £0.80 £3.50 £50.17
Turn
   
  • A
     
  Check        
craigcu12 Check        
River
   
  • J
     
  Bet   £4.20 £7.70 £45.97
craigcu12 Raise   £13.13 £20.83 £11.29
  Call   £8.93 £29.76 £37.04
craigcu12 Show
  • K
  • 10
     
  Muck
  • 5
  • A
     
craigcu12 Win Straight to the Ace £28.27   £39.56

Comments

  • edited April 2014
    If he calls nearly a pot sized raise then he will call an all in. Therefore shoving is best because if he has a hand that can call you will make more money in the long run. That overbet on the river is either a strong hand that can call an all in or air imo.
  • edited April 2014
    If we hold the nuts, always look to get maximum value. Doesn't need to work everytime to make it profitable.
  • edited April 2014
    In Response to Re: if i'm expecting him to fold should i just jam?:
    If we hold the nuts, always look to get maximum value. Doesn't need to work everytime to make it profitable.
    Posted by hhyftrftdr
    It will always be profitable but it's a qn of being more profitable than just making a smaller raise. If he only calls the shove 20% of the time then we will be making £20.22 x 0.2 = £4.04. If he calls the smaller raise 80% of the time then we will be making £8.93 x 0.8 = £7.14. So in this case, the smaller raise size is more profitable. (this is w/o calculating the small % of the time that villain value/bluff shoves the rest after we make a small raise in which case it is slightly more profitable than just £7.14.)

    Suppose villain calls shove 50% of the time tho then we will be making £10.11. In fact if villain calls more than 35% of the time we are gaining more profit than the smaller raise (assuming he calls that 80% of the time)

    If we're against a rec then I think shoving here shows the most profit because as someone else mentioned their small river overbet usually indicates a strong hand like 2p + or a bluff. And if they're calling a small raise they're probably calling a bigger raise just as much. Against a reg it becomes harder to balance an overbet shove like this - and they'll be much more capable of finding hero folds with 2 pair, whereas it becomes harder to find such a fold with 2 pair when they're getting better odds. So a smaller raise might be better in this case but it can depend on the reg. Most regs don't make overbets anyway so I would assume they're v strong and would probably size the raise slightly larger.
  • edited April 2014
    Guy has limp called with A5, and slightly overbet the river. Probably safe to assume he ain't a reg ;)

    Think we should be shoving here all day long vs this type of player.
  • edited April 2014
    Shove against recs and bad regs.

    Raise against good regs.

    I'd expect a good reg to find a fold with 55/66 if you shove the river for the reasons Ivan pointed out.
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