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icm question

THEROCK573THEROCK573
edited May 2014 in Poker Chat
7 left in an mtt on stars, 6 max, im chip leader with around 360k, shortstack of 90k opens for 21k on the button and im in the bb ready to put him all in with JJ, were 4 handed by the way, then the small blind who i have covered but not by much then ships 310k all in, he was a complete fish, i figure i have him crushed here with JJ 4 handed but decided to fold as there was around 4 stacks on 90k to 150k. the payouts were :

7th - $550
6th - $887
5th - $1387
4th - $1900
3rd - $2750
2nd - $3700
1st - $5000

correct to give up this spot with JJ or not?
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Comments

  • Matt237Matt237
    edited May 2014
    Blinds?

    I think i'm folding here yes.
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  • GlenelgGlenelg
    edited May 2014
    Depends what mood I'm in. Tonite.. I'd ship it.  Last nite..good fold.  I'm guessing Ivan will be along shortly to tell ya.    ;-)
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  • THEROCK573THEROCK573
    edited May 2014
    In Response to Re: icm question:
    Blinds? I think i'm folding here yes.
    Posted by Matt237
    3500/7000 blinds, i just won it 5 mins ago anyway so whether it was correct or not im happy i folded :-) the table was pretty weak aswell, if i never had an edge id have prob snap called although im not to sure, tricky one, ivan or lambert will no for sure
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  • Matt237Matt237
    edited May 2014
    In Response to Re: icm question:
    In Response to Re: icm question : 3500/7000 blinds, i won it anyway so whether it was correct or not im happy i folded :-) the table was pretty weak aswell, if i never had an edge id have prob snap called.
    Posted by THEROCK573
    Awesome. Yeah it was correct fold i feel :-)
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  • gazzaluf05gazzaluf05
    edited May 2014
    I agree with the fold. Not even feeling great with QQ in that spot (would call though). 
    Maybe someone with advanced knowledge on ICM can weigh in with a detailed answer. 
    Anyway, it seems you are currently on fire, a good night followed by a great night on stars, well done! 
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  • THEROCK573THEROCK573
    edited May 2014
    In Response to Re: icm question:
    I agree with the fold. Not even feeling great with QQ in that spot (would call though).  Maybe someone with advanced knowledge on ICM can weigh in with a detailed answer.  Anyway, it seems you are currently on fire, a good night followed by a great night on stars, well done! 
    Posted by gazzaluf05
    cheers m8, why would you fold though becuase you think you are behind or because of icm? when a fish 3bet jams 44 bigs i think JJ is ahead every day of the week. 
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  • jordz16jordz16
    edited May 2014
    Yeah from what you said i would be folding all day long, a few factors would lead me towards a call, if you had seen him shoving that stack size with continually weak hands then i think it would have to be a call, also if it was a super turbo then id be tempted as you may not get a better spot. Even with all the icm knowledge in the world i think sometimes you just have to go with your gut feeling in spots like that.
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  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH
    edited May 2014
    Rock if you go into the hand history at the table on ********* you can 'boom' the hand in question, it gives you a link which you can copy and paste on to forums of a hand replayer, which will show stack sizes and blind levels etc.

    Easier than trying to explain.

    No idea if it's a fold or not myself like.

    Congrats on the score.
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  • THEROCK573THEROCK573
    edited May 2014
    In Response to Re: icm question:
    Yeah from what you said i would be folding all day long, a few factors would lead me towards a call, if you had seen him shoving that stack size with continually weak hands then i think it would have to be a call, also if it was a super turbo then id be tempted as you may not get a better spot. Even with all the icm knowledge in the world i think sometimes you just have to go with your gut feeling in spots like that.
    Posted by jordz16
    I had double the stack anyone else had on both tables apart from the shover, he wasn't getting out line, lots of limp calling, very exploitable and I had position on him so although I was almost certain I was a 70% fav at the least most likely 80% I decided I t best to give up some value preflop cos I new a spot would happen later on post flop like it do minutes later on the final table wen he payed me 3 streets with A3 on a AQJ Q J board wen I had AQ. I'm kinda answering my own question here I suppose in this instance.
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  • ShaunyTShaunyT
    edited May 2014
    You have a 50bb stack, villain is looking to push you off exactly the type of hand you have with his 40+bb shove. I agree you could well have him crushed but you easily be facing QQ rather than 10 10. I think a call or a fold is justified. I would personally fold and look for a better spot.... although that 700k stack would've been nice :)
     As it turns out you didn't need it. Good job mate.
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  • THEROCK573THEROCK573
    edited May 2014
    In Response to Re: icm question:
    Rock if you go into the hand history at the table on ********* you can 'boom' the hand in question, it gives you a link which you can copy and paste on to forums of a hand replayer, which will show stack sizes and blind levels etc. Easier than trying to explain. No idea if it's a fold or not myself like. Congrats on the score.
    Posted by DOHHHHHHH
    Cheers! Will post hand later, builders are in so on tablet at min.
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  • THEROCK573THEROCK573
    edited May 2014
    In Response to Re: icm question:
    You have a 50bb stack, villain is looking to push you off exactly the type of hand you have with his 40+bb shove. I agree you could well have him crushed but you easily be facing QQ rather than 10 10. I think a call or a fold is justified. I would personally fold and look for a better spot.... although that 700k stack would've been nice :)  As it turns out you didn't need it. Good job mate.
    Posted by ShaunyT
     Cheers! Don't think he was trying to push me off anything, he was that bad he probly forgot I was behind to act and i had him covered. 
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  • jordz16jordz16
    edited May 2014
    In Response to Re: icm question:
    In Response to Re: icm question : I had double the stack anyone else had on both tables apart from the shover, he wasn't getting out line, lots of limp calling, very exploitable and I had position on him so although I was almost certain I was a 70% fav at the least most likely 80% I decided I t best to give up some value preflop cos I new a spot would happen later on post flop like it do minutes later on the final table wen he payed me 3 streets with A3 on a AQJ Q J board wen I had AQ. I'm kinda answering my own question here I suppose in this instance.
    Posted by THEROCK573

    well thats it you have more info than any of us, all i can do is give you my opinion from whats available, seems you played it in a way most people agreed was best, Certain spots like that there is no right answer and its down to personal opinion, 
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  • CraigSG1CraigSG1
    edited May 2014
    I think its a fold because of a few factors. 1/ Your chip stack to everyone elses 2/ Your in such a good position why possibly give it away where yes you could be crushing but reasonably either racing or crushed yourself 3/ Your percieved edge is greater so you can accumulate more chips through putting pressure on others either pre or post flop (i.e. you have more options available to you being chip leader where as others can either raise or fold and will be doing a lot more folding). 4/ And down the list but still important you can move up a place by doing nothing.
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  • MattBatesMattBates
    edited May 2014
    Its an edge pass not an ICM pass IMO.
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  • Chris_McChris_Mc
    edited May 2014
    Dont know how silly ill feel when I get the answer too this.

    ICM????

    Nice result though. VWP 
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  • MAXALLYMAXALLY
    edited May 2014
    In Response to Re: icm question:
    Dont know how silly ill feel when I get the answer too this. ICM???? Nice result though. VWP 
    Posted by Chris_Mc

    ICM = I Can Megabrag.


    Or maybe Independant Chip Model.

    Explained here....and no, I dont have a clue either.

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  • Lambert180Lambert180
    edited May 2014
    In Response to Re: icm question:
    Dont know how silly ill feel when I get the answer too this. ICM???? Nice result though. VWP 
    Posted by Chris_Mc
    In short, its about assigning a £££ value to your current stack and weighing up whether the risk warrants the reward.

    To give a contrived example... You have 40xBB on a dym bubble and someone has 1xBB.. your stack is virtually worth what you'd cash for, no amount of chips is gonna increase your stack value cos Youre already pretty much a lock to cash. So getting AA in against someone with a similar stack would be suicide cos the value of your stack can only really go down

    In MTTs its trickier cos payouts aren't flat like a DYM/satellite but its about assessing whether its worth taking a X% chance you bust now when taking lower variance routes can mean being a lock for a much bigger cash without damaging your chances of still winning it.

    Fwiw. I think its a fold Rock
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  • lyonsbob06lyonsbob06
    edited May 2014
    Been put in this spot quite a bit of late and I think you are right to fold cos you have an edge instead of calling off. I however have called off a few times in same sort of spot sort of knowing I'm likely to be big favourite and proceeding to get outdrawn instead of playing these players through the streets in later hands. I like the fold but can't blame you for calling either if the same thing happened tomo
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  • Tikay10Tikay10
    edited May 2014
    In Response to Re: icm question:
    Dont know how silly ill feel when I get the answer too this. ICM???? Nice result though. VWP 
    Posted by Chris_Mc
    Hi Chris,

    NEVER feel silly for asking a question.

    "ICM" = "Independent Chip Model".

    Here's what Mr Wiki says.....


    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independent_Chip_Model


    In particular, at the foot of that page is a link to "Poker Strategy", which explains it beautifully.

    Any more questions, fire away.
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  • Tikay10Tikay10
    edited May 2014
    In Response to Re: icm question:
    Its an edge pass not an ICM pass IMO.
    Posted by MattBates
    God bless little Matt Bates for having the ability to think for himself.

    ICM is vital to understand, but it needs using with great care, as there is a LOT more to this subject than pure maths.
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  • VespaPXVespaPX
    edited May 2014
    In Response to Re: icm question:
    In Response to Re: icm question : God bless little Matt Bates for having the ability to think for himself. ICM is vital to understand, but it needs using with great care, as there is a LOT more to this subject than pure maths.
    Posted by Tikay10
    Spanners?
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  • The_Don90The_Don90
    edited May 2014
    In Response to Re: icm question:
    Its an edge pass not an ICM pass IMO.
    Posted by MattBates
    surely therefore we're overvalueing our edge? 


    Fwiw i actually agree that its a fold. But has to be ICM based aswell as edge based imo 
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  • gazzaluf05gazzaluf05
    edited May 2014
    In Response to Re: icm question:
    In Response to Re: icm question : cheers m8, why would you fold though becuase you think you are behind or because of icm? when a fish 3bet jams 44 bigs i think JJ is ahead every day of the week. 
    Posted by THEROCK573
    ICM. Hard to say though as it depends on your own read on the fish. More than 1 kind of fish, but how wide do you actually perceive his range is?  Horrible calling and finding out you have a Flip. Would he actually have the confidence to isolate with hands like 66/a10? 
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  • NoseyBonkNoseyBonk
    edited May 2014
    Do players really use ICM during online tournament play? Is there enough time to do the calculations?
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  • MattBatesMattBates
    edited May 2014
    In Response to Re: icm question:
    Do players really use ICM during online tournament play? Is there enough time to do the calculations?
    Posted by NoseyBonk
    You don't make the calcs in play but you just need an awareness of certain aspects of ICM. EG, if someone has say 2bb on a ft its really bad for you to go out next. As part of post game analysis you should look at whether you made any mistakes from an ICM perspective.
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