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how to count odds and outs + pot odd A must read
hi im going to try make this as simple as possible
step 1 say we are delt 9,s 10,s and the flop comes Q,c 8,s k,s :
so we will look at what cards make our hand stronger
we know any spade will give flush so thats 2,3,4,5,6,7,J,A =8 cards
or any jack J,c J,h J,d =3 cards
so thats 11 cards to give us a stronger hand.
Using the 4 and 2 method on the flop we TIMES it by 4 to give the percentage ov us hitting and making the strongest hand so 11x4 = 44 % chance ov improving our hand
on the turn comes a 7,d then we calculate how many outs we have now
we know any spade will give flush so thats 2,3,4,5,6,7,J,A =8 cards
or any jack J,c J,h J,d =3 cards
or any 6 6,d 6,c 6h =3 cards
so that is 14 cards that can make out hand better on the river
using the 4 and 2 method we TIMES this by 2 on the turn to give the percentage ov us hitting and making the strongest hand so 14x2 = 28 % chance of improving your hand
say theres 300 in the pot he bets 100 making the pot 400
its 100 for us 2 call making it 4 to 1
if we call 100 that means its 1/5 = 20% ov the pot so we need a 20% chance ov winning to jusify calling
HOPE THIS HAS HELPED ALL OF YOU
step 1 say we are delt 9,s 10,s and the flop comes Q,c 8,s k,s :
so we will look at what cards make our hand stronger
we know any spade will give flush so thats 2,3,4,5,6,7,J,A =8 cards
or any jack J,c J,h J,d =3 cards
so thats 11 cards to give us a stronger hand.
Using the 4 and 2 method on the flop we TIMES it by 4 to give the percentage ov us hitting and making the strongest hand so 11x4 = 44 % chance ov improving our hand
on the turn comes a 7,d then we calculate how many outs we have now
we know any spade will give flush so thats 2,3,4,5,6,7,J,A =8 cards
or any jack J,c J,h J,d =3 cards
or any 6 6,d 6,c 6h =3 cards
so that is 14 cards that can make out hand better on the river
using the 4 and 2 method we TIMES this by 2 on the turn to give the percentage ov us hitting and making the strongest hand so 14x2 = 28 % chance of improving your hand
say theres 300 in the pot he bets 100 making the pot 400
its 100 for us 2 call making it 4 to 1
if we call 100 that means its 1/5 = 20% ov the pot so we need a 20% chance ov winning to jusify calling
HOPE THIS HAS HELPED ALL OF YOU
Comments
Are there any other methods to use?
No offence to how you wrote it, but i think if it was worded a little more clearly and maybe had a diagram or even a video, it should be put into the Sky Poker School section.
Nice post though
I personally think its great, and wasnt aware of it before, but i will definetly be using it in the future.
And for the other poster who asked if there are other ways of working it out. You could try and get a lot more mathmatical to generate and exact figure to the decimal but probably not in the 15 seconds you have to make a decision on here lol
times your outs by 4 with 2 cards to come
times your outs by 2 with 1 card to come
Remember not to double count outs (Ie if you need either a spade to make the flush or a 6 to improve your hand then make sure you only count the 6 of spades in the Flush outs and leave it from the outs you have by way of a 6)
The 4 and 2 rule is based on the fact that each card has a likelihood of roughly 2.3% of being dealt after the flop or turn. Therefore you can multiply the number of cards that you think will make you the best hand by this number to give you the odds of you winning the hand. After the turn you can use precisely 2.3%. After the flop, you shouldn't use 4.6% because of the possible duplication of your winning cards and the possibility that your opponent has a re-draw that will beat you. Most players use 4% in this case because it allows a margin for these circumstances and also because it is easier to calculate.
Finally, note that the more outs that you have, the less you should give yourself "the full 4%", this is because of the above factors.
You will find several posts in the strategy section that deal with this topic.
yep i missed that bit out but showed it in the hands lol
its 100 for us 2 call making it 4 to 1
if we call 100 that means its 1/5 = 20% ov the pot so we need a 20% chance ov winning to jusify calling
HENSE the word justify
It is definitely not right to say "if u knew ur opponents cards there would be no need 2 do this in the 1st place" since this is a VERY important part of the process.
The maths is important but the feel/read is imperative.
Given the right inputs, the maths will ALWAYS be correct.
"Feel/read" is subjective but is, of course, crucial to a good poker player's skill base.
Being "hung up" on maths can be quite profitable for many people - certainly if we use the full definition of maths rather than just plain arithmetic.
for another instants
9,s 10,s against a,s j,s
flop comes Q,c 8,s k,s
turn comes 2s
river comes 5d
say theres 300 in the pot he bets 100 making the pot 400
its 100 for us 2 call making it 4 to 1
if we call 100 that means its 1/5 = 20% ov the pot so we need a 20% chance ov winning to jusify calling
so evan if we do lose we can still justify playing that hand
As we are actually drawing dead after the turn then it would be a bad call if we knew our opponent's hand.
We have to evaluate our hand based on what we think our opponent has and there are MANY factors that need to be considered to be able to do this. After playing lots of hands this becomes "intuitive" to good experienced players - this is what they call "a feel for the game".
The call for pot odds of 20% on the river is only relevant in so far as we need to ask ourselves will our opponent be bluffing (i.e. not have a better flush) more or less times than one in five.
ur getting the right price for your chips if u call and are beaten u can still justify calling by your percentages it is a good post for people learning the game and wanna calculate things so why dont u leave it at that
People are just trying to elaborate on it to increase understanding and clarify it - that's how a forum works.
As always seems to be the way with poker it is all in the situation and no hard and fast rules. Personally i use maths but if i've got a feeling then sometimes i blow the maths off and go with my gut (not always to my credit lol).
Timebomb10 please don't take the comments as a personal argument as people are just expanding on your original idea (which will happen on every post) and as this is a tight nit community then you will find people popping up to throw in their 2p's worth on every post you make. Most of the time the community tries to do this in a non-argumentative way and sometimes it can be taken in the WRONG way. This is for the benefit of us all as these threads develop from one simple idea explaining odds and can get quite intricate by page 4, advancing those beginner players who are new to a concept as the thread develops.
As i said it's a good post for those not aware of 4 & 2 and will be helpfull to those people, but people will always build on the orignal point