C'mon statisticians....what are the odds???

ShaunyT

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
rileyboi	Small blind		40.00	40.00	4140.00
ShaunyT	Big blind		80.00	120.00	1855.00
	Your hole cards	10 A
vixxxy	Call		80.00	200.00	4410.00
xanda	Call		80.00	280.00	4480.00
nelfish	Call		80.00	360.00	1445.00
sambuca199	Call		80.00	440.00	3060.00
rileyboi	Call		40.00	480.00	4100.00
ShaunyT	All-in		1855.00	2335.00	0.00
vixxxy	Fold
xanda	Fold
nelfish	All-in		1445.00	3780.00	0.00
sambuca199	Fold
rileyboi	Call		1855.00	5635.00	2245.00
rileyboi	Show	7 2
ShaunyT	Show	10 A
nelfish	Show	A 6
Flop
		10 6 2
Turn
		9
River
		8
rileyboi	Win	Straight to the 10	5635.00		7880.

What are the odds of each of our hands flopping a pair?

ShaunyT

The question is at the bottom of the table! Stupid hand history posting lol


What are the odds of us each flopping a pair?

oh and 72 gets there to take 2 bounties!! wp sky

craigcu12

the statistics are you should loose this hand 74% of the time preflop.

A6 (25.95%)-folds normally
7h 2h (30.49)-folds normally
A10o (43.57)- folds normally
basically your 2/5 chance of winning.

you might be ahead of these two but if you are going by normal expectations then you have lost this 74% of the time because this is what's called you

AA KK QQ JJ AK and maybe AQ or 1010
whats not calling you is 72 or A6

postflop you would only be slight favourite.

ShaunyT

In Response to Re: C'mon statisticians....what are the odds???:

the statistics are you should loose this hand 74% of the time preflop. A6 (25.95%)-folds normally 7h 2h (30.49)-folds normally A10o (43.57)- folds normally basically your 2/5 chance of winning. you might be ahead of these two but if you are going by normal expectations then you have lost this 74% of the time because this is what's called you AA KK QQ JJ AK and maybe AQ or 1010 whats not calling you is 72 or A6 postflop you would only be slight favourite.
Posted by craigcu12

Didn't ask that mate

And what isn't shown on that table is its a 6 way limped pot lol with me sat in the bb so your ranges are way out.

Nuggy962

Hi

If a serious qustion then the answer is approx 1 in 20 or 5%

In terms of the hand, I apprecite the idea of the jam - but I think that a raise of 300-400 will do same job.

In terms of how hand played out you are a slight favourite, 

Vs 72 its 65/35 in your favour, 80/20 vs A6

So 7 2 was always more likely to get there over A6 v your hand.

If you squeeze here (I personally check and see a free flop if 5 people in hand all ready) and get called can then reasses again on flop.  If you check and see free flop you can c/raise and probably take it down on that flop.

If flop misses you or do not hit hard just give up, A10 not a great hand to squeeze with, as like craig said, soon as you get called 90% of time your behind and flipping at best.

As played - unlucky of course but look at bigger picture, hope that helps?

ShaunyT

In Response to Re: C'mon statisticians....what are the odds???:

Hi If a serious qustion then the answer is approx 1 in 20 or 5% In terms of the hand, I apprecite the idea of the jam - but I think that a raise of 300-400 will do same job. In terms of how hand played out you are a slight favourite,  Vs 72 its 65/35 in your favour, 80/20 vs A6 So 7 2 was always more likely to get there over A6 v your hand. If you squeeze here (I personally check and see a free flop if 5 people in hand all ready) and get called can then reasses again on flop.  If you check and see free flop you can c/raise and probably take it down on that flop. If flop misses you or do not hit hard just give up, A10 not a great hand to squeeze with, as like craig said, soon as you get called 90% of time your behind and flipping at best. As played - unlucky of course but look at bigger picture, hope that helps?
Posted by Nuggy962

Yeah serious question, cheers for the answer.

Although I do disagree with you and Craig about been behind 90%. Surely in this spot A10 is strong. Whole table limps? Whats that about lol. Yeah I know the odd player limps with AA KK now and then, but surely dominating aces are raising?And I play a lot of low stakes BH's some ludicrous calls!!

Thanks for the stats guys

Jac35

The stats for the hand when it went in preflop were

Ace 10 - 38.89

Ace 6 - 22.21

7 2 - 32.2

On flop

Ace 10 - 61.46

Ace 6 - 13.73

7 2 - 24.81

Turn

Ace 10 - 57.14

Ace 6 - 26.19

7 2 - 16.67

hhyftrftdr

7 2.......God bless BH's on Sky poker.

FWIW I think the shove is fine. The type of hands that might limp/over limp in and then look us up are generally behind to a reasonable large ace, especially in this type of MTT.

Craig, you can't say ''what's not calling you is A6 and 7 2'', because that's exactly what happened!

hhyftrftdr

In fact, judging this table from this one hand, I'd say raising 3/400 would be a mistake. Tap the table or GII.

Matt237

Raise of 300-400 is bad i think. A10 likely to be good if we get called, but likely in these spots we're gunna have fold equity to get this through. Lower stakes BH i think this is quite an easy jam.

ShaunyT

cheers guys. My reasoning behind the shove (like mate and h said) if I raise, even quite big 400/500 I AM going to get called and have to play a multiway pot with A10. The shove doesn't REALLY want a call but I was delighted when I saw what I was up against.

Sometimes it hard to understand just how bad some people are in these low stakes BH's. I see people everyday call 50bb 100bb shoves with A3 A5 66 etc. Obviously there are regs who are far better than that and some really solid players. infact some regs with open shove QQ KK AA and often they get looked up with trash! Quite funny when a bounty at these stakes starts off at £1.18 or £1.88. but hey, that why we love poker right???


Cheers for all the comments n stats guys

craigcu12

generally speaking you will normally win this 64% when you are at showdown. but here you were actually just 42% favourite preflop as their were 2 callers on this occasion meaning their are more cards that will put you behind.

like you say by doing a raise your more likely to get the callers causing a multiway pot, so their is only really two choices you either fold it or make the shove preflop, if you choose the second option, you need accept the loss because you choose to jam, their was no need just yet as your stack wasn't short.