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England loss to Uruguay is not so bad...
Optimum score is Italy 2 - 0 Costa Rica
1-0 means that England must score two goals more than Costa Rica on Tuesday
2-0 means that England needs any win versus Costa Rica
Uruguay has three risks; losing the game, only scoring 1 more goal than Italy and playing for a draw.
Italy has one risk; losing the game versus Uruguay by 2 or more goals.
Comments
There is a consoling line of thought that helps. Had Suarez not scored that second goal, or had England scored again, it is really of little consequence. Here's why...
Italy must beat Costa Rica, that hasn't changed
England must beat Costa Rica, that hasn't changed
We don't want Italy in position not to care about losing to Uruguay on Tuesday.
Uruguay now with 3 points have to beat Italy on Tuesday, yet this could see Italy eliminated
Uruguay with 1 point (had England drawn last night) could not eliminate Italy
So now Uruguay v Italy is a crucial game for both.
Had England drawn, Tuesday would be of little importance for Italy, who might wish to lose to miss Brazil and/or The Netherlands in the quarter-finals.
So, it's quite good we didn't score a late equaliser.
Italy could take 2 0-0's and cruise into the next round now.
my point is that losing last night is not so bad, as drawing is pretty much the same. so don't be down about losing.
being positive, assuming that italy will beat CR, we are in a better position, perversely, as neither Italy or Uruguay are playing risk free. there is still no scoreline that secures both their places in the next round.
Now, we need Italy to win in a game where they will probably rest players. Espeically if they see England are winning at HT they will just be loving life with no injuries and not be too worried about the result.
the longer the score remains 0-0 in the England game the better. the pressure will grow on Uruguay and/or Italy to score. it will be a waiting game for us, scoring after the 90th minute would help.
Italy know that a 0-0 draw would be absolutely fine regardless, will be no pressure on them to score.
Pucker up ma'am :-)
Would be stupid for Italy to go gung-ho and risk their top players getting suspened/injured when they know a draw tops the group (assuming they win today).
Obviously as an England fan i am optimistic that not only will Italy thrash Costa Rica tonight, that we will then score plenty past Costa Rica, keep a clean sheet and build confidence. Also praying that Italy do make changes and these players do everything they can in the final game to try and get into the starting x11 therefore beating Uruguay.
But to suggest that Losing yesterday makes little difference then drawing is Ludicrous.
incorrect. you need to read the thread again to understand better.
this thread is all about those who were disappointed by suarez's second goal, or those wishing we had scored a late equaliser. there would be little added benefit. we needed to win. so it is consoling to realise that our chances have not been diminished too much. we still have a chance, and perversely, the situation has improved in one respect, that is there is no scoreline which suits both Italy and Uruguay whilst they do not know the outcome of the England game.
you can be miserable about england, that's your choice. alternatively you can chose to see the opportunity that we have open to us.
But if we did score late on, and draw. We would just need to beat Costa Rica to gurantee qualification (assuming italy win) , now we need to win and hope Uruguay lose. This is a massive massive difference. This is why the whole nation was asolutely gutted last night.
A late goal, or Suarez not scoring would have been MASSIVE for us.
remember too that on monday, before our group games are played, Italy will know where Brazil and The Netherlands will be placed.
It might be that losing the game against Uruguay means that Italy will avoid them in the quarter-finals and be drawn to play a lesser team instead.
However, now that there is a risk of being eliminated in the Uruguay game they cannot manipulate the result without knowing our game result.
One consequence of losing (and not drawing) last night is that this option is no longer available to Italy.
If we drew yesterday and they draw tonight points would be 4 4 1 1 . Again putting it in Englands hands with a big win Tuesday night.
To sum it up, if we drew last night and Italy win tonight. We would JUST need to win Tuesday.
If we drew last night and Italy win tonight. We would JUST need to win big Tuesday.
In our hands.
After losing, draw tonight and we are out. Italy win tonight we still need Uruguay to lose. Out of our hands.
Losing last night was a Massive difference to drawing. How can you not see this?
i'm not arguing with you 1267. this is not like your old chatbox episodes.
if only, alan. totally an england supporter, but born in australia and living in scotland. mind you, australia are out and scotland didnt qualify.
Someone else who thinks Johnson is a complete waste of space.
Looked totally lost and disinterested for 89 mins against Uruguay.
Every time he got the ball he didn't know what to do with it.
He lost Cavani for the first goal as he was ball watching.
Yes i know he made Rooneys goal, but he should be doing that all game long like he does for his club.
We need a dominant midfield playmaker, Gerrard plays too deep and Henderson isn't strong enough.
The difference between the 2 teams was their 1 World Class player was much better than our 1 World class player.
Rooney missed 2 great chances out of 3, Suarez took 2 out of 2.
And that's the difference between a 2-1 loss and a 2-2 draw or a 2-3 win.
You've got to remember, the World Cup for us is over after 180 minutes. It's such a short, high variance format where individual mistakes and individual genius are both amplified to the max.
We didn't do much wrong, we competed well, tried hard, but as usual the key moments in the game at both ends went against us. And that's that for 4 more years I'm afraid