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Getting max value from big hands vs nit/TAG players
Q. Should I ever consider flatting the river bet given I'm against two multi-tabling TAG regs?Between them I'd guess they had in excess of 20 tables running.
I'm not sure Messi would ever be betting all 3 streets into two oppos without an overpair on this board (or flopped set). He is likely to c-bet once though, hence my call on the flop with an over pair and expectation to be good if he gives up on turn.
Neymar coming along for the ride must also be sat with a PP to have called through the streets. At a push, 55 and calling for the straight draw, but most likely another overpair. Not sure I've ever seen Neymar raise anything but QQ/KK/AA from the blinds, they'd call AK/JJ in this spot.
With that nittiness in mind, alarm bells will be going off on both their heads if I shove the river and both are good enough to fold an overpair in this spot (IMO). They likely have me as also being fairly TAG and certainly know that I'm never bluffing in this spot, despite my tendancy to make daft plays against other players.
So even though I have the effective nuts, is the most EV play to just call on the river and increase the odds on getting a sigh call from Neymar to boost my winnings?
Player | Action | Cards | Amount | Pot | Balance |
---|
xxx | Small blind | | £0.05 | £0.05 | £8.08 |
Neymar | Big blind | | £0.10 | £0.15 | £13.26 |
| Your hole cards | | | | |
xxx | Fold | | | | |
xxx | Fold | | | | |
Messi | Raise | | £0.30 | £0.45 | £12.14 |
shakinaces | Call | | £0.30 | £0.75 | £10.47 |
xxx | Fold | | | | |
Neymar | Call | | £0.20 | £0.95 | £13.06 |
Flop |
---|
| | | | | |
Neymar | Check | | | | |
Messi | Bet | | £0.50 | £1.45 | £11.64 |
shakinaces | Call | | £0.50 | £1.95 | £9.97 |
Neymar | Call | | £0.50 | £2.45 | £12.56 |
Turn |
---|
| | | | | |
Neymar | Check | | | | |
Messi | Bet | | £1.60 | £4.05 | £10.04 |
shakinaces | Call | | £1.60 | £5.65 | £8.37 |
Neymar | Call | | £1.60 | £7.25 | £10.96 |
River |
---|
| | | | | |
Neymar | Check | | | | |
Messi | Bet | | £3.10 | £10.35 | £6.94 |
shakinaces | ????? |
0 ·
Comments
yes they might be beaten but if a player holding premium pairs were to fold everytime a board was like this then it's only a matter of time before the'll get people bluffing sets.
Only wondered whether there is ever a case to increasing the chance of a call and boosting profit.
Answer = no.
But given the bet was small and you have a decent amount behind with the 2nd nuts, shoving is best.
As I said previously, if they're folding too much in this spot then start bluffing with hands you get to the river with that no longer have enough showdown value.
Other thing to consider is that in theory, when Messi leads the river and you flat, Neymar is gonna call pretty infrequently given that you both look quite strong here.
So river is pretty much an autoshove every time.