Hyper HU SNG's advice please

jordz16

I mainly play Mtt's on this site but with them drying up at this time of year I thought I would learn how to play some heads-up sit n go's. I tried out all the variants and definitely prefer the Hypers. I did some research, watched a few videos and got some advice and for the last few days have been trying to grind as many as possible..

The advice I am after is...

What's a decent sample size to see how well I am doing?

What ROI is required to "beat" the level you are playing at?

How many buy-ins should I have to play at a certain level? (currently decided on 200)

And any other advice you can offer would be much appreciated.

Thanks

bearlyther

5% would be a good roi for hypers over a large sample size

LARSON7

1000 games is a good sample size playing a certain level to guage how you are doing.

A couple of regular HU sit and go players on the site played 1000 games at a certain level before moving up to the next level.

5%/7% is a very decent ROI over a large sample size.

If you are going to play these regularly, it would also be worthwhile looking what is available else where, eg less rake than the 5% on sky.

jordz16

Thanks for the advice, I have spoken to a few people away from the forum and most of the advice correlates quite well, I've only played just over 200 over the last 7 days but have managed to get an roi of 25% so if i can hold a 15-20% roi over 1000 then i think i may give these a go more seriously.

DOHHHHHHH

In Response to Re: Hyper HU SNG's advice please:

Thanks for the advice, I have spoken to a few people away from the forum and most of the advice correlates quite well, I've only played just over 200 over the last 7 days but have managed to get an roi of 25% so if i can hold a 15-20% roi over 1000 then i think i may give these a go more seriously.
Posted by jordz16

This wont happen!

Unless u run like bawfizzle on a heater. Even then you'd probably still fall 10% short.

anything 2/3/4%+ on here is awesome.

jordz16

yeah maybe I have over extended myself on that estimation... i still think i would like to try and go for 10% plus even though its very unlikely I believe in aiming high!

ACEGOONER

Agree with dohhhh for once. 

Look at sharkscope leaderboards for hu hypers between $16-35. The top player by profit has an roi of 4.9% with a sample size just under 70,000 games. 

20% is just not sustainable. 

TeddyBloat

get ready for the variance, jordz.

lets say you are a 55% winner. pretty damn solid if you are.

here are 3 random simulations of expected results over a 300 game sample given an expected 55% win rate at £10.50 level:








edges are slight in hypers, and volume is where its at.

jordz16

In Response to Re: Hyper HU SNG's advice please:

get ready for the variance, jordz. lets say you are a 55% winner. pretty damn solid if you are. here are 3 random simulations of expected results over a 300 game sample given an expected 55% win rate at £10.50 level: edges are slight in hypers, and volume is where its at.
Posted by TeddyBloat

Im waiting for the pics to be approved before i can properly answer. I completely agree that variance is a big, big part of it but i believe there is often a very big edge over the average player in these hypers, against other regs of course its a lot more minimal

TeddyBloat

i agree there is edge, i wouldnt play them otherwise and these are my main game. but at 25bb it aint all that, and that's when we are deeeep.

essentially winning will come down to shoving / calling as a small favorite. even people with terrible ranges will win a significant % of the time.


the edge is pretty small, but repeatable and we can crucially get volume in.

all im saying is dont get disheartened by a losing spell. you can play perfectly against terrible players and lose buy in after buy in

one last pic to show variance at work. the following is a graph of  a guy who charges $175 an hour to coach hypers

over  a 9000+ game sample he managed to run $28,000 below ev.





for those uninitiated the orange line shows what his expected winning would be on average. say if he got AA in v KK his ev line would go up for 80% of the pot. he essentially got his money in good but ran horrendously over a fairly significant sample.

DOHHHHHHH

In Response to Re: Hyper HU SNG's advice please:

i agree there is edge, i wouldnt play them otherwise and these are my main game. but at 25bb it aint all that, and that's when we are deeeep. essentially winning will come down to shoving / calling as a small favorite. even people with terrible ranges will win a significant % of the time. the edge is pretty small, but repeatable and we can crucially get volume in. all im saying is dont get disheartened by a losing spell. you can play perfectly against terrible players and lose buy in after buy in one last pic to show variance at work. the following is a graph of  a guy who charges $175 an hour to coach hypers over  a 9000+ game sample he managed to run $28,000 below ev. for those uninitiated the orange line shows what his expected winning would be on average. say if he got AA in v KK his ev line would go up for 80% of the pot. he essentially got his money in good but ran horrendously over a fairly significant sample.
Posted by TeddyBloat

Graph makes me feel sick! ughhhhhhh

TeddyBloat

i'm honestly surprised he has a working monitor to look at that graph on.

jordz16

450 games in and currently on 11.8% roi  I'm guessing its very unlikely I will get to 1000 games with a 10% roi but while its possible that will be my target. anyone with more advice or experience in playing these then feel free to pm me.