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Hu Sit and Go Hands
on the two hands you've posted you've cbet more than half the pot with top pair+
not a big problem against fish that you'll only play once or twice, but with the small player pool here it could be a tell. it's not necessary to bet more than half pot as you can skew your turn sizing to set stacks up for the river. an extra 5, 10, 15 etc chips on the turn is less noticable than on the flop as its a smaller % of pot.
you cbet nearly every flop and will have a made hand only ~30% of the time so you want to be able to make your cbet bluffs as cheap as possible. often you will be wanting to cbet t30 into a t80 pot. by betting more than half-pot with made hands your faced with either doing the same with air or being very easy to play against.
would you cbet that size with Ahigh on this board, or at all even?
this board SMASHES a bb defending range, so its good to get value. on the turn you bet under half-pot. if he's calling flop then he's calling turn and i'd bet bigger.
on this board villain will have a made hand more than 50% of the time and he will have a gutshot or open-ended straight draw 36% of the time. there's so much we can get value from.
the brick turn changes nothing, we are ahead of their range so there's no reason to bet smaller. as played he only needs 77/322 = 23% equity to call so we are giving his draws a great price. i'd bet bigger on the turn.
not a big problem against fish that you'll only play once or twice, but with the small player pool here it could be a tell. it's not necessary to bet more than half pot as you can skew your turn sizing to set stacks up for the river. an extra 5, 10, 15 etc chips on the turn is less noticable than on the flop as its a smaller % of pot.
you cbet nearly every flop and will have a made hand only ~30% of the time so you want to be able to make your cbet bluffs as cheap as possible. often you will be wanting to cbet t30 into a t80 pot. by betting more than half-pot with made hands your faced with either doing the same with air or being very easy to play against.
would you cbet that size with Ahigh on this board, or at all even?
this board SMASHES a bb defending range, so its good to get value. on the turn you bet under half-pot. if he's calling flop then he's calling turn and i'd bet bigger.
on this board villain will have a made hand more than 50% of the time and he will have a gutshot or open-ended straight draw 36% of the time. there's so much we can get value from.
the brick turn changes nothing, we are ahead of their range so there's no reason to bet smaller. as played he only needs 77/322 = 23% equity to call so we are giving his draws a great price. i'd bet bigger on the turn.
Comments
A lot of interesting stuff.
"on this board villain will have a made hand more than 50% of the time and he will have a gutshot or open-ended straight draw 36% of the time. there's so much we can get value from."
How do you work out these stats, do you use a programme?
"the brick turn changes nothing, we are ahead of their range so there's no reason to bet smaller. as played he only needs 77/322 = 23% equity to call so we are giving his draws a great price. i'd bet bigger on the turn."
That is true, really interesting. I've never really used a lot of maths in HU sit and go's outside of basic stuff.
When you play HU sit and go's do you use maths quite a lot in decisions?
I'm happy betting bigger than usual on this texture, we weren't given any reads or history in OP, so I'd be playing my readless game until given reason not to. And like teddy says oppos range is all over this board, so bet bigger otf for value/protection etc.
Turn is weird, to go smaller on that card. We're losing value. Also means the river shove is much closer to pot than would be ideal, makes it really difficult or us to get stacks in v a weaker hand even on river bricks when he checks to us.
So much so I'd probably prefer a smaller value bet over a shove in that circumstance, to get value from the weaker end of his range. Which is a strange situation for us to get ourselves in after the flop action.
take all the low and unconnected junk which will fold and all the big aces and pairs which will raise out of a range and you are left with lots of Kx,QxJx and connected middling cards. its hard for that range to completely miss a J97 board.
an average flatting range prolly looks like:
look at that block of hands in the middle. it's all over our J97 board. just visualising ranges can help
it's hard for that range to hit a 433 or a AK7 board so you can see why cbetting with air is much more profitable on different board textures.
with regard to the maths. i do think that it's important in HUSNG's. theres loads of common spots that you can solve. is it profitale to 3bet jam A3o against a 60% opener 25bb deep? can we call a 3bet jam with KQs 19bb deep agaisnt an average villain?
when facing bets it's enough to know apporixmately how often you need to be right to bluff catch / how often you need to hit with draws.
when facing a pot size bet you need 33%
half pot = 25% of the time
1/3 pot = 20%
you get this by taking the amount needed to call divided by total pot after calling.
Not going to start another thread, as I'm linking a boom....
Anyone have any thoughts here?
First game v him, so readless.
I peeled and c/r non all in on TTx 2nd hand of the game, he shoved over my raise and I folded.
Exactly the same happened again next time he had the button, paired/dry board, this time I check raise and he folded.
Then this hand..........
http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/9767467_71D76ACFA3
First thoughts were check raise the river.
With his delayed continuation bet on the turn, i'm sure he is firing a really high % of rivers here.
His play looks a bit bluffy, unless he's backed into something with 10 5 suited. As played I think it is a fold, even though it looks a bit dodgy his river jam.
Had a look at the hand a couple of times, I don't know if there is much value in raising the river.
So all being said, would probably just check call the river.
And river is v standard bet, v standard fold. I think?
Last thing I want on the river is him to check back Tx and Ax.
He can definitely check back Ax and 8x on this flop, there are also some Tx there that he's picked up on the turn.
Think I need to fold the turn. Def lead the river as played, and then fairly confidently fold the river?
Maybe I should lead the river smaller?
Think if I expect Ax, Tx and 8x all to call, the river size is prob ok?
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Thoughts behind the c/c line Henrik? Nothing has bricked. Not sure about the guys ability, so not sure if he can value bet hands here that he'd call a bet with. It's only low stakes, so don't wanna waste being a lucky s hit otr by checking and seeing him check behind.....
when he checks i'm mega suspicious. why would an aggro player check an A high board?
river we need to beat 35% of his range. i dont think he has that many bluffs in his range unless he's turning one pair hands into a bluff, and if he is, we have to take our licks i guess wp villain. hard to fold rivered two pair when villain has shown weakness but i guess we have to. that flop check is ridiculously suspect too.
He can check this flop because I've already check raised him twice and we're still level 1 on the first game we've played together.
Which probably makes the turn even more of a fold for me.
Even readless I'd expect Ax and 8x to check back a fair % of the time here.
like turn check raises on dry boards are nearly always 2 pair.
with regard to c/c v b/f with a marginal hand:
a the hands that we beat are missed draws and/or made hands that will bet
or
b the hands we beat are made hands that will check behind.
check call if a, bet fold if b.
here no draws miss and the only made hands that we beat are one pair hands where even AK might check behind. so bet folding is best imo.
we only beat single pair hands. we think he would be defo cbetting his Ax.
this means we only beat 6x, 8x, Tx 5x and bluffs.
his flop check heavily weights the range that we beat to 8x and 6x. i dont think he has many bluffs here after we call the turn as what does our range look like? lots of draws hit on the river and the 5 shouldnt effect the strength of any Tx or 8x in our range. if we call turn we are nearly always calling river from his point of view.
therefore 6x, 8x and Tx is the range we are targetting and we cant trust villain to value bet those hands on this run-out. b/f
If possible, pause it before I act on the river.
Thinking about river sizing?
http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/9768941_03B74D5ACA
It's the v first hand of the very first game against this guy.
All I can tell you is that he's Russian!
like the bigger turn sizing to set stacks up for the jam.
but then you have THE nut worst river card maybe 9s is worse, but whatever.
one thing that really goes in our favour is that on 688ss any spade draw will have either over cards or gut-shot/str8 draw combos to go with it. that will likely mean he jams them. pity we dont have history but i wouldnt be overtly concerned by the flush.
im torn between jamming and betting under half pot. betting smaller is probably best. with reads on how a player plays combo draws im jamming
*edit jamming is prolly bad in a vacuum, as the board is so scary. probably make a decent VB with reads and a smaller bet without*
* response to second hand posted by dohhhh
Think it's better to bet turn, say 55%-60% pot and check river?
As played I like the river size. It's pretty thin, mainly 6x, sometimes 3x and v rarely 77/88/44. 60 probably works best.
Betting the turn gets calls from all those, as well as some stubborn A high floats, single heart hands, 78, 58, 57, 8T etc.