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Query about two river decisions

edited August 2014 in Cash Strategy
Same table although two different villains - not regs so limited notes on them - neither was showing down maniac-bluffs but there was a lot of pre-flop limping and the villain in the first hand had min bet flop and turn a few times before a bigger river bet (which had gotten folds every time I noticed it).
PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
villainSmall blind  £0.05 £0.05 £19.34
chrisx2525 Big blind  £0.10 £0.15 £10.32
  Your hole cards
  • A
  • K
     
VINEY73 Fold     
Strider_78 Call  £0.10 £0.25 £9.18
shakinaces Raise  £0.35 £0.60 £35.29
villainCall  £0.30 £0.90 £19.04
chrisx2525 Fold     
Strider_78 Fold     
Flop
   
  • 6
  • K
  • A
     
villainBet  £0.10 £1.00 £18.94
shakinaces Raise  £0.60 £1.60 £34.69
villainCall  £0.50 £2.10 £18.44
Turn
   
  • 2
     
villainCheck     
shakinaces Bet  £1.50 £3.60 £33.19
villainCall  £1.50 £5.10 £16.94
River
   
  • J
     
villainBet  £3.83 £8.93 £13.11
shakinaces ????    
      
      
      
PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
villainSmall blind  £0.05 £0.05 £15.02
crommers Big blind  £0.10 £0.15 £13.74
  Your hole cards
  • J
  • J
     
VINEY73 Fold     
kev1993 Fold     
gragun Fold     
shakinaces Raise  £0.25 £0.40 £19.75
villainRaise  £1.25 £1.65 £13.77
crommers Fold     
shakinaces Call  £1.05 £2.70 £18.70
Flop
   
  • 5
  • 9
  • 9
     
villainBet  £2.03 £4.73 £11.74
shakinaces Call  £2.03 £6.76 £16.67
Turn
   
  • 7
     
villainCheck     
shakinaces Check     
River
   
  • 6
     
villainCheck     
shakinaces ?????    
      
      
      

Comments

  • edited August 2014
    1 snap it off
    2 meh b/f small and hope AK calls

    Edit: misread hand 1 see post below
  • edited July 2014
    Hand one is a strange one and I think we can raise here profitably? We beat a lot of two pair hands and KJ fits the action and even AJ. It's very hard to have Q10 and I'm thinking the only set he can realistically have is 66 and usually I'm expecting a check raise on turn as people do get nervous when FDs arrive. All though saying that I think against unknowns I will probably just call as it's about the bet I would make anyway. 

    Hand two. Again, against unknowns it's a little harder but I think we can definately value bet smallish and get calls by worse PPs and some A highs. It's going to take a good player to bluff raise us here so we can safely fold here if that happens. 
  • edited August 2014
    Hand 1 could be q10 of clubs or maybe he's called down with JJ and hit a set on the river. 

    he could do the same with AJ which you're beating but it's one of them where he's got you crushed or he's doing a wild bluff.


    hand 2 i think he's either got an overpair to your JJ or he's missed completly with something like AK, the latter seems more likely. An 8 doesn't really make sense with his pre flop play. he shuts down after the continuation bet so i think you have him beat
  • edited August 2014
    First hand i'd shove. You 'd be giving him two to one on making the call. Combined with the fact he's put in about a third of his stack already I reckon your ahead of about 70 - 75 percent of his calling range. You'd be asking him to call £13 to win a pot of £39, if he's sitting there with two pair I can't see him folding it.      
  • edited August 2014

    God Im blind thought we had 1 pair in hand 1

    Prob jam, puke when he turns over JJ

  • edited August 2014
    Thanks for the feedback all.

    The second I was more certain I'd missed a value bet at the time, but I have to admit it's still a weakness to bet/spew-call if I do get raised in those sort of spots :/

    FWIW, I called pot1 and checked pot2 and won them both.

    Different random villains but both had A5o

    Final Q - what sort of river sizing would be optimum against an unknown in hand 2, assuming I'm sensible enough to b/f?  Is 1/2 pot the sort of ballpark I should be aiming for?
  • edited August 2014
    Flat seems fine on river in hand 1. Not much calls a jam that you beat, unless you have notes he is a POW.

    I'm actually leaning towards a 4b in hand 2, and happy to GII pre.
  • edited August 2014
    We're missing colossal value by not raising on the river in hand one. In the long-term, we're probably missing even more value by not raising the flop a lot bigger. If the villain will lead/call a raise to 6BB with Ax, he'll probably call 10BB with exactly the same range and that's not an outrageous size in a 10BB pot. 

    We should expect to be beaten by two combinations of 66 in his range and crushing everything else. Raise the flop bigger and shove river.


    In the second hand, I think the advantages of flatting the 3-bet are clear: Keeping villain's range wider, playing in position with a bigger SPR and not risking 4-bet/calling against a largely unknown 5-bet range.


    There's value in betting on the river if the villain is capable of calling with A-high hands. The more Ax hands we perceive them to be 3-betting with, the better. We're not getting value from smaller pocket pairs because we only beat TT, 22, 33 and 44. Safe to say we're not getting value from 22, 33 or 44.

    In a vacuum, I'd expect AA, KK and better to certainly keep betting the turn. We should be expecting to be ahead a high proportion of the time so we need to give the villain a chance to make a mistake with worse. It's not the worst check-back in the world but I don't think you'll see the villain turn over AA, KK or QQ too often.

    As for the sizing, we might think that a bigger bet looks more bluffy but this board texture fits your range much better than the villain's. Betting big is just going to look like you have an eight or better. I'd probably bet a little under half pot with my entire range, let's say £3.
  • edited August 2014
    I dont think a 4b pre in h2 would be a great idea when our only read on villain is hasn't shown down bluffs and limps a lot pre. Half pot or even a bit less would be good on river imo

    Flop sizing fine in h1 imo given info hero had at the time
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