I wanna fold a flopped set to a single bet!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

grantorino

BB is a good player and think hes a reg. Some others fishy, some ok

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
SB	Small blind		£0.20	£0.20	£48.28
BB	Big blind		£0.40	£0.60	£43.11
	Your hole cards	3 3
UTG	Call		£0.40	£1.00	£47.96
grantorino	Raise		£1.60	£2.60	£69.05
CO	Call		£1.60	£4.20	£79.62
BTN	Call		£1.60	£5.80	£38.40
SB	Fold
BB	Call		£1.20	£7.00	£41.91
UTG	Call		£1.20	£8.20	£46.76
Flop
		5 3 8
BB	Bet		£4.10	£12.30	£37.81
UTG	Fold
grantorino

????????
So whats in his range other than bgger sets?

shakinaces

Straight flush draws that are happy getting it in like 6h4h and 6h7h?

Horrible spot against a solid reg and five in the pot. Pat on the back if you fold - probably the right play and I know I'd be losing my money here by calling and paying off if no more hearts / straight fillers appear.

77Chris91

Villain can have a few FD's and maybe 99-1010.

This sort of spot depends a lot on any reads you have. If your relatively readless it's just a gii otf.

Itsover4u

folding is just awful against anyone anytime here.... he isnt ever leading out this strong with a set himself.

By folding you are just bleeding money.

If he has straight and flush draws and hit so be it... he could just as easily have top 2.

Against flush open ended straight you are 57 /43 fav on flop against top 2 you are 21/79...

if you have even a 1% edge you should be getting it in as long as you play within bankroll

PICOSLIM2

Prob started aa kk or similar. My guess is he'd expect to normally be in front with that flop. No way fold unless your only prepared to bet with the nuts. If he hits then just unlucky.

F_Ivanovic

In Response to Re: I wanna fold a flopped set to a single bet!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:

Prob started aa kk or similar. My guess is he'd expect to normally be in front with that flop. No way fold unless your only prepared to bet with the nuts. If he hits then just unlucky.
Posted by PICOSLIM2

There is no way BB ever has AA/KK here given pre-flop action. 

board: 3h5h8c

Hand	Equity	Wins	Ties
3s3c	37.88%	4,500	0
88, 55, 8s5s, 8d5d, 6h7h, 7h9h, Ah8h, 7h8h	62.12%	7,380	0

This seems a reasonable range to me that BB might be leaving. Given the flop bet size I don't think we can fold to a single bet. I'm calling and seeing a turn - probably have to get it on most non-heart turns.

craigcu12

if your going to fold in this spot then a raise preflop is the worst thing really.

the fact your sitting OOP there are 5 callers and the board so draw heavy, the last thing he'll expect is for you to cbet hands such as AK AQ KQ, so if he wants to charge those with draws the only option is for a donk bet his sets and pocket pairs 99-JJ.

the only time you can consider folding here is if you can be guarentee that he will only bet hands that are set or better.

Lambert180

No1 (except Ivan) seems to actually be giving a range.

I agree that it's a pretty sick spot against 90% of regs that play 40NL. There are deffo a few players where I think we can narrow him down to literally 55/88.

Leading out 5way after the action pre and this flop just stinks of desperately not wanting it to get checked through cos as Craig says, it's a pretty horrible spot for the PFR to cbet so quite often it will get checked thru, which is a terrible situation for 55/88

=================

Off topic here and slightly different spot but the other day I opened UTG w/ 22, BTN flats and super nitty straightforward reg flats the BB. Flop comes K52r and the BB c/r me lol, imo I can put him on 1 hand and 1 hand only right from the flop.

Again different spot but this can be a fold with decent reads imo.

grantorino

In Response to Re: I wanna fold a flopped set to a single bet!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:

In Response to Re: I wanna fold a flopped set to a single bet!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! : There is no way BB ever has AA/KK here given pre-flop action.  board: 3h5h8c Hand Equity Wins Ties 3s3c 37.88% 4,500 0 88, 55, 8s5s, 8d5d, 6h7h, 7h9h, Ah8h, 7h8h 62.12% 7,380 0 This seems a reasonable range to me that BB might be leaving. Given the flop bet size I don't think we can fold to a single bet. I'm calling and seeing a turn - probably have to get it on most non-heart turns.
Posted by F_Ivanovic

yeah I think that's fair enough, he prob more likely to lead made hands than draws??

bearlyther

Could just be ak suited

Matt237

In Response to Re: I wanna fold a flopped set to a single bet!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:

Could just be ak suited
Posted by bearlyther

Did you put him on AK also?

77Chris91

AK? BB is in a dream spot to squeeze AK here. No chance a decent reg flats pre. 

F_Ivanovic

In Response to Re: I wanna fold a flopped set to a single bet!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:

In Response to Re: I wanna fold a flopped set to a single bet!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! : yeah I think that's fair enough, he prob more likely to lead made hands than draws??
Posted by grantorino

I'm not too sure - I gave every combo of made hands but didn't give every possible draw (just most of the pair + FD or straight + FD's) 

I almost think a set that decides to lead would make it a bigger sizing. So maybe it's weighted more towards draws, in which case raising and GII is probably fine. However, flatting to protect our range somewhat and to allow us to GII OTT with more equity is I still think the best option.

I would definitely need more reads I think to consider folding a set here.

In reply to Lambert's post about a similar spot - I don't know if it's that similar. There's a bet and a raise in your hand and the board is much dryer.

This hand the board is more wet and there's just been one bet. If it was a bet + a raise between similar tight players then folding would be much more viable and most likely correct.

grantorino

Well he had 88 here, I really wanted to fold but as timer ran down I raised he shoved I called. I agree flatting is better than raising but with timer running down I didn't really want to give odds to guys behind with draws, but I think that was worst option

This really annoyed me, because I thought set immediately, and I was just finishing a session where I hadn't spewed for a change. I'm still undecided, there are 2 fish to act when he leads 5 way I think he is much more likely to lead a set than a draw in this situation ( I don't have specific read though, also he's not particularly nitty), suppose he might lead 8x with a heart

Just thought its a hand where maybe there is a bit more than saying set over set cooler