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Master Cash Jan 9th - Make Your Play ONE
I'm not around on Saturday, I'll be in Newcastle, but have been asked to put the two MYP Threads up, so you have plenty of time to get some debate going. Reply on thread, or e-mail the Show at "skyopen@bskyb.com" please.
And don't forget to Vote!
Righti-ho, here we go.
6 handed Cash, £0.50-£1
Villan ONE, £100.
Villain TWO, £96.40
Hero £101.50.
Hero is Small Blind, & has Qd-Kc.
Villain ONE Raises to £4.
Villain TWO Calls.
Hero Raises to £16.
Villains ONE & TWO BOTH Call the £12. Oops.
Pot is now £49.
Flop is 8s-Td-Js
Hero Checks.
Villain ONE Bets £33.
Villain TWO folds.
Hero.....
Fold?
Call?
Raise?
Vote now, please.
Comments
That's easily the best reply yet Dan.
Why do we check?
You've took the foot off the pedal, and lost all initiative in the hand.
We essentially made the squeeze play pre flop so we have to c bet first 2 act. Then if we get flatted or raised we can then make a decision on the oppos ranges and decide whether the ship is right.
I think its safe to say he will be 4betting AA and KK most of the time. With this £33 flop bet the problem we have is we checked so he could be taking a stab with just a Jack which he would probably fold to a check/shove but having said that I don't think we have much FE when hes willing to bet-fold a 1/3rd of his stack, I would assume he is calling it off to our shove. Although it may be a weak play given all the factors considered I think I fold and wait for a better spot I also did the calculations against the range of hands I suggested above to see if my fold would be correct.
Board: 8s Js Td
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.067% 33.23% 00.84% 29275 741.00 { KcQd }
Hand 1: 65.933% 65.09% 00.84% 57353 741.00 { QQ-88, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, KsQs, KcJc, KdJd, KhJh, QTs+, JTs, T9s, AJo+, KJo, QTo+, JTo }
This means that we are behind in this hand 65% of the time against the given range of hands villain could hold, so we do not have the odds to shove and it is correct to fold here in the long run. If we do shove Villain only has to call £51 to win £217 which means he only has to have around 27% equity to make the call for it to be a profitable one. As he will be calling around 27% of the hands here in his range, its a definate fold.
James
Its either that or we have to fold on the flop.
Check raise all in semi bluff?? - I dnt see why we didn't bet out the flop, thus pricing us in to call any raise (and oppo shud know this, making the raise more likely to get through), if he has the flush draw, hes made the play that we should have made, just the other way round.
Im moving all in, the check raise looks so strong, but hes calling the all in obv if he has a fd, just hope he hasnt got AQ/AK spades....we're crushed there.
I fear we're gonna get called light though, as the story we have told doesnt make much sense, the only hand Id play like this is maybe top set, or AK spades. - 3 bet pre then check the flop OOP doesnt really make much sense and does look so much like a draw.
With no info on the oppo, I have to shove, obviously not wanting a call. If I have notes that this guy can't fold, I might fold myself, only 16 quid invested - and im pretty sure hes holding some of my outs.
DOHH
Don't see how I have any fold equity now, as half of Villain's stack is in the middle, so he's calling with anything bar a complete bluff. Although I'm up and down, I'm behind for sure at the moment, don't have any spades, so don't wish to put my entire pull-up into the middle KNOWING I'm behind to be totally honest?
Amazingly, as at Midnight on Friday - the Vote is split exactly 50-50, with 10 Votes each way.
There personified, is the beauty of poker.
Master Cash TWO is a different story though, that one's a bit one-sided.
Right to start off with the pre flop re raise I agree with makes them ask questions on what we have and also gives us the momentum going into the flop although OOP. The check after the flop is one that I hate, personally I would be betting here to try and control the pot and make the most of being first to act, checking is the easy decision and gives chance to people behind to do exactly what they have done and bet out at you, leaving you now with the difficult decision.
At this point it is either fold or re raise all in, calling makes us commit too much to the pot to be able to fold the turn if it does not suit us, folding would get us away cheaply with only £16 invested, but a re raise all in with 14 possible outs giving us around a 1 in 3 chance of hitting one of them outs makes the all in raise tempting, plus the fact that if they are betting out the flush draw, then they are likely to fold a re raise thinking you have hit and hit it big either hitting a set or two pair.
Other factors are that after the pre flop raises and the flop I am putting the Villain on AQ or AK suited, AJ or A10 either suited or not and possibly A8 suited or looking at possible pocket pairs of either J's 10's or 8's, but if he had hit it so strong it is doubtful he would have bet that strong. With this is mind I am stuck in a 50/50 decision whether to fold or raise, the fold is obviously the safest option but the re raise all in shows a lot of strength and could cause the Villian to fold either a pair of 8's, 10's or a flush draw but anything else and he is coming along with and you are hoping you hit one of your 14 outs then.
Normally my final decision if put in this circumstance would be decided on previous information on my opponents, but with none of this is this circumstance I feel I have to raise all in, as with around a 3/4 pot bet you have to feel he has hit the flop big, I am thinking 2 pair and is scared of the flush or straight, and seems we have the straight draw and 2 over cards if its a bet with only a pair its puts the pressure back on the Villain