Poker Professional cant turn a profit on Skypoker....why?

MagicMern

I played two £5 DYMs with you yesterday. You cashed in both.

Write down ALL hands not just the ones you've lost. Past is now irrelevant, record only future hands. Re-post.

Can't see the photos ATM so can't comment on that, but are the games like-for-like.

Your post doesn't appear very friendly given the majority of poker players are losing ones, or fish as you put it.

MagicMern

Hi guys,

I would like some informative opinions about Sky Poker and its variance.

I am a professional poker player, poker coach and affiliate to many poker sites, including Sky Poker itself. I have played around 200-250,000 sit n go games and mtt's over all sites, with 90% of those being DYM's and DoN's.

I have been profitable on every single website that has DoN/DYM available including pokerstars (tough site)....except Skypoker (well actually $23 profit but pfff), and I would love to find out why.

At the moment although I have never said this about any poker site in the world ever, it "feels" like Sky Poker wants me to win far less than i should. I'm not saying that it does this deliberately, but this is how I feel when I play on Skypoker - it feels as though it is irrelevent what I do, I will not win with my big favourite hands at the percentages that I should.

It "feels" as if when I get dealt AQ, they will have AK. It "feels" as if my AA gets beaten way more than other players. It certainly feels that I don't win my fair share of races, or hands that I am big favourite for. 

KK, for example, in the last 2 weeks has lost to Ax more than it has won - i've checked! - It should be winning around 68% of the time i believe, but it hasn't been on my account.

The following few hands are from the very few 22 games that I have played this morning:

KK losing to a10.

KK losing to AK

TT losing to A8

A2 losing to A4 on 2,T,T board

AK meeting KK

A5 suited being called by JQ for all chips pre flop - and losing.

A6 spades on 4,5,6 (two spades board) meeting a set of 444

A8 on 2,6,8 board meeting set of 222.

AJ on A,2,Q board meeting a set of QQQ.

AQ all in pre flop called by KQ - lose to 3 outer king on flop.

AK called all in pf by QQ, and QQ holds.

AJ meeting AK and AK holds.

On the face of it, most of the responses on here will no doubt say "its variance", "it happens" or my personal pet hate "it's poker"... and I would normally agree. I accept that if this had happened over the course of one day it would be variance and simply bad luck. Perhaps even over a week or month. 

But these results are typical of what is now a 1000 game run; and I should add, at very low stakes, against soft opposition - most players I sharkscope are losers at £5 dym games on Sky.

What I find tends to happen with my plays is a four step process:

1. Get dealt a good starting hand

2. Raise big pre flop (continue raising post flop with strongest hand)

3. Get called.

4. Software eventually provides win for the underdog..

I would like to put it out there - how many games can a player go before you say "enough is enough" and change to another site? 1000 games? 2000? 5000?

In my experience of playing DYM/DoN, after even a couple of hundred games, a proven winning player should be showing a profit, and a proven losing one a loss. After 500 games this should certainly be the case, and I can safely say that after playing 250,000 of them, I have never come across a professional player breaking even after amassing 1000 games at such low stakes in very beatable games.

Indeed, by the very nature of the structure of DYM, variance is less than in some other forms of poker, and it is very unusual to see big swings.

Take a look at the following 3 graphs - first 1000 games of DYM at 888.com, Skypoker and Pokerstars:

(Photo'spending approval)...

As you can see, the swings on Skypoker are far far greater than on the other two sites which show relatively smooth consistent results in line with expectations.

Could anyone provide an explanation for this? Perhaps the games are so soft on Sky that the beats are more frequent?

I would also love to know, what would you do if this was your previous playing history and current set of results at Skypoker? - Would you carry on? Would you give up and play at another site? 

I am very torn as to whether to carry on or not.

Many thanks in advance to all reading, and I hope that it can provide some great discussion.

Paul aka Magic.merny/Magicmern

littlelou

do these photo's show how you run players down in the chat box about there sharkscope stat's when u have lost a big hand?very pro like(not)

The_Don90

I think you might have put a few 0's too many into your sit and go game samples looking at those pics. 

VespaPX

If this is your attitude at the tables i would give up.

https://www.skypoker.com/secure/poker/sky_lobby?action=show_static&page=poker_community_forums&plckForumPage=ForumDiscussion&plckDiscussionId=Cat%3a57795ac2-1793-4377-b4cf-e124b0f555f4Forum%3adf77f82c-151f-4bea-aae1-fb423dcae1faDiscussion%3ac3be7947-fa94-415a-9f85-fd0648d442f3

DOHHHHHHH

lolpro

Mudshark

In Response to Poker Professional cant turn a profit on Skypoker....why?:

Hi guys, I would like some informative opinions about Sky Poker and its variance. I am a professional poker player, poker coach and affiliate to many poker sites, including Sky Poker itself. I have played around 200-250,000 sit n go games and mtt's over all sites, with 90% of those being DYM's and DoN's. I have been profitable on every single website that has DoN/DYM available including pokerstars (tough site)....except Skypoker (well actually $23 profit but pfff), and I would love to find out why. At the moment although I have never said this about any poker site in the world ever, it "feels" like Sky Poker wants me to win far less than i should. I'm not saying that it does this deliberately, but this is how I feel when I play on Skypoker - it feels as though it is irrelevent what I do, I will not win with my big favourite hands at the percentages that I should. It "feels" as if when I get dealt AQ, they will have AK. It "feels" as if my AA gets beaten way more than other players. It certainly feels that I don't win my fair share of races, or hands that I am big favourite for.  KK, for example, in the last 2 weeks has lost to Ax more than it has won - i've checked! - It should be winning around 68% of the time i believe, but it hasn't been on my account. The following few hands are from the very few 22 games that I have played this morning: KK losing to a10. KK losing to AK TT losing to A8 A2 losing to A4 on 2,T,T board AK meeting KK A5 suited being called by JQ for all chips pre flop - and losing. A6 spades on 4,5,6 (two spades board) meeting a set of 444 A8 on 2,6,8 board meeting set of 222. AJ on A,2,Q board meeting a set of QQQ. AQ all in pre flop called by KQ - lose to 3 outer king on flop. AK called all in pf by QQ, and QQ holds. AJ meeting AK and AK holds. On the face of it, most of the responses on here will no doubt say "its variance", "it happens" or my personal pet hate "it's poker"... and I would normally agree. I accept that if this had happened over the course of one day it would be variance and simply bad luck. Perhaps even over a week or month.  But these results are typical of what is now a 1000 game run; and I should add, at very low stakes, against some of the worst players I have ever seen online - most players I sharkscope are big losers at £5 dym games on Sky (this is a good thing, many congrats to Sky for this). What I find tends to happen with my plays is a four step process: 1. Get dealt a good starting hand 2. Raise big pre flop (continue raising post flop with strongest hand) 3. Get called by one of the many fish at this level of poker on Sky network 4. Software eventually provides win for said fish. I would like to put it out there - how many games can a player go before you say "enough is enough" and change to another site? 1000 games? 2000? 5000? In my experience of playing DYM/DoN, after even a couple of hundred games, a proven winning player should be showing a profit, and a proven losing one a loss. After 500 games this should certainly be the case, and I can safely say that after playing 250,000 of them, I have never come across a professional player breaking even after amassing 1000 games at such low stakes in very beatable games. Indeed, by the very nature of the structure of DYM, variance is less than in some other forms of poker, and it is very unusual to see big swings. Take a look at the following 3 graphs - first 1000 games of DYM at 888.com, Skypoker and Pokerstars: (Photo'spending approval)... As you can see, the swings on Skypoker are far far greater than on the other two sites which show relatively smooth consistent results in line with expectations. Could anyone provide an explanation for this? Perhaps the games are so fishy on Sky that the beats are more frequent? I would also love to know, what would you do if this was your previous playing history and current set of results at Skypoker? - Would you carry on? Would you give up and play at another site?  I am very torn as to whether to carry on or not. Many thanks in advance to all reading, and I hope that it can provide some great discussion. Paul aka Magic.merny/Magicmern
Posted by MagicMern

This happens regularly on sky I have bet strong with aces three four times the blinds six times in a row a few days ago and was called by AQ - AK - 6 8 off - 99 - AJ -and 66 got beat by them all.  That cant be right, this has happened on many occasions through my playing here. Varience doesn't apply to sky poker software and its been fun but i shall be closing my account in a couple of weeks because of this. I have got fed up with the worst hand winning 75% of the time.  I counted one day all the bad beats against the best hands not just mine.

and they won over 75% of them. Good luck everyone enjoy your poker but It winds me up too much to carry on

Tikay10

In Response to Re: Poker Professional cant turn a profit on Skypoker....why?:

If this is your attitude at the tables i would give up. https://www.skypoker.com/secure/poker/sky_lobby?action=show_static&page=poker_community_forums&plckForumPage=ForumDiscussion&plckDiscussionId=Cat%3a57795ac2-1793-4377-b4cf-e124b0f555f4Forum%3adf77f82c-151f-4bea-aae1-fb423dcae1faDiscussion%3ac3be7947-fa94-415a-9f85-fd0648d442f3
Posted by VespaPX

He really wrote those things in the chat box?

77Chris91

Poker pro grinding £5 DYM's moaning about variance.

WAL

Tikay10

In Response to Poker Professional cant turn a profit on Skypoker....why?:

Hi guys, I would like some informative opinions about Sky Poker and its variance. I am a professional poker player, poker coach and affiliate to many poker sites, including Sky Poker itself. I have played around 200-250,000 sit n go games and mtt's over all sites, with 90% of those being DYM's and DoN's. I have been profitable on every single website that has DoN/DYM available including pokerstars (tough site)....except Skypoker (well actually $23 profit but pfff), and I would love to find out why. At the moment although I have never said this about any poker site in the world ever, it "feels" like Sky Poker wants me to win far less than i should. I'm not saying that it does this deliberately, but this is how I feel when I play on Skypoker - it feels as though it is irrelevent what I do, I will not win with my big favourite hands at the percentages that I should. It "feels" as if when I get dealt AQ, they will have AK. It "feels" as if my AA gets beaten way more than other players. It certainly feels that I don't win my fair share of races, or hands that I am big favourite for.  KK, for example, in the last 2 weeks has lost to Ax more than it has won - i've checked! - It should be winning around 68% of the time i believe, but it hasn't been on my account. The following few hands are from the very few 22 games that I have played this morning: KK losing to a10. KK losing to AK TT losing to A8 A2 losing to A4 on 2,T,T board AK meeting KK A5 suited being called by JQ for all chips pre flop - and losing. A6 spades on 4,5,6 (two spades board) meeting a set of 444 A8 on 2,6,8 board meeting set of 222. AJ on A,2,Q board meeting a set of QQQ. AQ all in pre flop called by KQ - lose to 3 outer king on flop. AK called all in pf by QQ, and QQ holds. AJ meeting AK and AK holds. On the face of it, most of the responses on here will no doubt say "its variance", "it happens" or my personal pet hate "it's poker"... and I would normally agree. I accept that if this had happened over the course of one day it would be variance and simply bad luck. Perhaps even over a week or month.  But these results are typical of what is now a 1000 game run; and I should add, at very low stakes, against some of the worst players I have ever seen online - most players I sharkscope are big losers at £5 dym games on Sky (this is a good thing, many congrats to Sky for this). What I find tends to happen with my plays is a four step process: 1. Get dealt a good starting hand 2. Raise big pre flop (continue raising post flop with strongest hand) 3. Get called by one of the many fish at this level of poker on Sky network 4. Software eventually provides win for said fish. I would like to put it out there - how many games can a player go before you say "enough is enough" and change to another site? 1000 games? 2000? 5000? In my experience of playing DYM/DoN, after even a couple of hundred games, a proven winning player should be showing a profit, and a proven losing one a loss. After 500 games this should certainly be the case, and I can safely say that after playing 250,000 of them, I have never come across a professional player breaking even after amassing 1000 games at such low stakes in very beatable games. Indeed, by the very nature of the structure of DYM, variance is less than in some other forms of poker, and it is very unusual to see big swings. Take a look at the following 3 graphs - first 1000 games of DYM at 888.com, Skypoker and Pokerstars: (Photo'spending approval)... As you can see, the swings on Skypoker are far far greater than on the other two sites which show relatively smooth consistent results in line with expectations. Could anyone provide an explanation for this? Perhaps the games are so fishy on Sky that the beats are more frequent? I would also love to know, what would you do if this was your previous playing history and current set of results at Skypoker? - Would you carry on? Would you give up and play at another site?  I am very torn as to whether to carry on or not. Many thanks in advance to all reading, and I hope that it can provide some great discussion. Paul aka Magic.merny/Magicmern
Posted by MagicMern

The clues are all highlighted Bud.

Honestly, when we start being so disrespectful to fellow players, thats when Poker has an amazing habit of teaching us a lesson. Never take ANY players for granted, which is what you seem to be doing.

Good luck, hope your results improve.

littlelou

In Response to Re: Poker Professional cant turn a profit on Skypoker....why?:

In Response to Poker Professional cant turn a profit on Skypoker....why? : This happens regularly on sky I have bet strong with aces three four times the blinds six times in a row a few days ago and was called by AQ - AK - 6 8 off - 99 - AJ -and 66 got beat by them all.  That cant be right, this has happened on many occasions through my playing here. Varience doesn't apply to sky poker software and its been fun but i shall be closing my account in a couple of weeks because of this. I have got fed up with the worst hand winning 75% of the time.  I counted one day all the bad beats against the best hands not just mine. and they won over 75% of them. Good luck everyone enjoy your poker but It winds me up too much to carry on
Posted by Mudshark

very strange,your first post on the site and your sticking up for magic,just like you stuck up for him in the chat box when he was running a player down about there sharkscope stat's,are your sure u two are not best friends?

shakinaces

What's the expected value ROI on a £5 DYM... like, 10p-15p per game? (at 2-3%)

So to play them professionally, for anything like a worthwhile return, you'd need to spin through 70-100 for around £10 hourly rate, not exactly something I'd get out of bed for.

Is that even humanly possible?

(note of caution, my maths may be wildly inaccurate)

As an aside - aren't the DYM games on other sites based on 10-max / 9-max format?  I would imagine that this leads to a lower variance game than 6-max, which would suggest why it seems to be harder to beat Sky games. Although the trade off is obviously that the 6-max games will complete quicker and therefore you can get more games per hour (which, as above, is key if you are trying to play this level professionally...)

MagicMern

In Response to Re: Poker Professional cant turn a profit on Skypoker....why?:

I think you might have put a few 0's too many into your sit and go game samples looking at those pics. 
Posted by The_Don90

Hi Don,

I filtered the graphs to show only the first 1000 games so that they are in line with Skypoker results.

MagicMern

In Response to Re: Poker Professional cant turn a profit on Skypoker....why?:

If this is your attitude at the tables i would give up. https://www.skypoker.com/secure/poker/sky_lobby?action=show_static&page=poker_community_forums&plckForumPage=ForumDiscussion&plckDiscussionId=Cat%3a57795ac2-1793-4377-b4cf-e124b0f555f4Forum%3adf77f82c-151f-4bea-aae1-fb423dcae1faDiscussion%3ac3be7947-fa94-415a-9f85-fd0648d442f3
Posted by VespaPX

I appreciate this is bad, and was a result of the many many many bad beats I was receiving at the tables. My apologies to the opponents concerned.

MagicMern

In Response to Re: Poker Professional cant turn a profit on Skypoker....why?:

In Response to Poker Professional cant turn a profit on Skypoker....why? : The clues are all highlighted Bud. Honestly, when we start being so disrespectful to fellow players, thats when Poker has an amazing habit of teaching us a lesson. Never take ANY players for granted, which is what you seem to be doing. Good luck, hope your results improve.
Posted by Tikay10

Hi Tikay,

I wasn't trying to be derogatory, in my eyes a "fish" is a poker term/slang for a losing player - the same as what a "shark" is for a winning player. It's a poker term in my book, not a swear word or derogatory term...

Have amended so hope its better!

MagicMern

In Response to Re: Poker Professional cant turn a profit on Skypoker....why?:

What's the expected value ROI on a £5 DYM... like, 10p-15p per game? (at 2-3%) So to play them professionally, for anything like a worthwhile return, you'd need to spin through 70-100 for around £10 hourly rate, not exactly something I'd get out of bed for. Is that even humanly possible? (note of caution, my maths may be wildly inaccurate) As an aside - aren't the DYM games on other sites based on 10-max / 9-max format?  I would imagine that this leads to a lower variance game than 6-max, which would suggest why it seems to be harder to beat Sky games. Although the trade off is obviously that the 6-max games will complete quicker and therefore you can get more games per hour (which, as above, is key if you are trying to play this level professionally...)
Posted by shakinaces

Thank you Shakinaces, a reply worth reading!

I can play 12-15 tables at a time, that is no issue, and yes to a couple of the others, I agree that playing £5 stakes is not very professional at all - I had hoped to be at £11 stakes by now, if not higher (I am very comfortable playing £33+ if there is traffic), but due to this "variance" it has not worked out like this at all.

I would have hoped for a much higher ROI than 3%, 7% is more or less my average on other sites with DYM.

I should also say that i dont play poker all year round (i have a seasonal job) hence the low stakes - clearly no one could live off $23 after 1000 games. That said, this is also why I have become frustrated to the extreme with Skypoker/its bad beats, and have taken it out on the chat box after bad beats - i apologise to that.

I think you might be right about the 6 man tables having more variance than the 8 mans, however, when playing on ipoker (also 6 man and much stiffer competition) the graphs for first 1000 games were similar to the first two sites - at the moment I cant find my screenshot of that graph for proof, but its true....

How long would you give it until you gave up?

Mudshark

In Response to Re: Poker Professional cant turn a profit on Skypoker....why?:

In Response to Re: Poker Professional cant turn a profit on Skypoker....why? : very strange,your first post on the site and your sticking up for magic,just like you stuck up for him in the chat box when he was running a player down about there sharkscope stat's,are your sure u two are not best friends?
Posted by littlelou

To your question the answer is no, but I have been frustrated at the amount of bad beats I have had in succession and it gets you down after a while. So I am quite vocal sometimes I try not to be but you lose to rubbish with aces 6 times on the trot twice and see how your anger levels are towards the players that are calling you all in with 6 8 off suit and hitting a straight. It gets you down after a while and that occassion when I joined in I couldn't help myself. No offence intended I was just riled at the last couple of days.

Tikay10

In Response to Re: Poker Professional cant turn a profit on Skypoker....why?:

In Response to Re: Poker Professional cant turn a profit on Skypoker....why? : Hi Tikay, I wasn't trying to be derogatory, in my eyes a "fish" is a poker term/slang for a losing player - the same as what a "shark" is for a winning player. It's a poker term in my book, not a swear word or derogatory term... Have amended so hope its better!
Posted by MagicMern

I do know what the term means, Magic.

You want to headline that these guys can't play?

Would you prefer to play a table of big winners, all really good players?

If you are a Pro, you earn your living from players who are not gifted with your ability, so I don't think we should be so disrespectful. Can you not see that? 

Let them keep getting it in as 40-60 dogs, variance will take care of everything in the long term. But even as 40-60 dogs, they'll win 40% of the time. I'd happily be the other side of that equation all day long. But we need to be able to take them beats.
 
I sat with a lad in the UKPC Omaha. Poker was like torture to him, he went loopy every time he was outdrawn. Poker can't be much fun for him.     

MagicMern

In Response to Re: Poker Professional cant turn a profit on Skypoker....why?:

In Response to Re: Poker Professional cant turn a profit on Skypoker....why? : I do know what the term means, Magic. You want to headline that these guys can't play? Would you prefer to play a table of big winners, all really good players? If you are a Pro, you earn your living from players who are not gifted with your ability, so I don't think we should be so disrespectful. Can you not see that?  Let them keep getting it in as 40-60 dogs, variance will take care of everything in the long term. But even as 40-60 dogs, they'll win 40% of the time. I'd happily be the other side of that equation all day long. But we need to be able to take them beats.   I sat with a lad in the UKPC Omaha. Poker was like torture to him, he went loopy every time he was outdrawn. Poker can't be much fun for him.     
Posted by Tikay10

I can assure it's not much fun for me either at the minute!!

So, back to the original post and taking your point on board - what would you say is the rough amount of games to play through before these 40/60 situations turn around?

As I have proven above, 1000 isn't enough, so how many would you suggest? 

The "long term" on here must be very very long!

goldenb238

               This whole thread is a windup right?

Tikay10

In Response to Re: Poker Professional cant turn a profit on Skypoker....why?:

In Response to Re: Poker Professional cant turn a profit on Skypoker....why? : I can assure it's not much fun for me either at the minute!! So, back to the original post and taking your point on board - what would you say is the rough amount of games to play through before these 40/60 situations turn around? As I have proven above, 1000 isn't enough, so how many would you suggest?  The "long term" on here must be very very long!
Posted by MagicMern

I think many people would suggest a much larger sample size is necessary.

It may be, of course, that we need to look at our own game, and make a few adjustments. 

There are plenty of big winners on Sky Poker, they seem to manage somehow.

Honestly, I think the first place to look when we are not getting the results we think we deserve, is at our own game. It's amazing how often the problem lies there. Blaming others, the software, the whatever, is never going to solve the problem.

Good luck, I hope you turn it round.

DOHHHHHHH

How can you be 7k up over 1k games (and £50k up overall) on 888 yet post something like this?

fwiw, there are 5 different magic.mernys on 888. There seems to be one 'boss' and 4 'fans' of his.

Even the boss 'merny' is playing $1 sngs on there now.

Poker has got a lot harder, you aren't crushing on 888 like you used to, your last 10k games or so have been break even,  and you are barely winning on here.

Maybe time to look closer to home? it's not 2010 anymore.

Sky_DanR

I'm going to close this thread now, Mern - will drop you a PM.