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Turning TP into a Bluff
Villian is pretty solid pre and post. Seen him do the odd funky thing like 3betting 36s pre, but postflop he doesn't mess about, if he looks like he's got it, he usually does.
Pre, flop and turn all seem standard (i wouldn't be loving life so much V this guy tho if I hadn't picked up the FD).
When he bets for the 3rd time (and I've bricked FD), I think there's vvv little in his range that I beat so can't call imo, but I think I can get him off a lot of his likely holdings like QQ+ and AJ. Fwiw I think he goes bigger on riv with strong hands like sets.
Pre, flop and turn all seem standard (i wouldn't be loving life so much V this guy tho if I hadn't picked up the FD).
When he bets for the 3rd time (and I've bricked FD), I think there's vvv little in his range that I beat so can't call imo, but I think I can get him off a lot of his likely holdings like QQ+ and AJ. Fwiw I think he goes bigger on riv with strong hands like sets.
| Player | Action | Cards | Amount | Pot | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lambert180 | Small blind | £0.25 | £0.25 | £67.53 | |
| zinfan | Big blind | £0.50 | £0.75 | £53.77 | |
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| X | Raise | £1.50 | £2.25 | £48.50 | |
| paul3975 | Call | £1.50 | £3.75 | £15.27 | |
| haidyboy | Fold | ||||
| EDDZ | Fold | ||||
| Lambert180 | Call | £1.25 | £5.00 | £66.28 | |
| zinfan | Fold | ||||
| Flop | |||||
| |||||
| Lambert180 | Check | ||||
| X | Bet | £3.00 | £8.00 | £45.50 | |
| paul3975 | Fold | ||||
| Lambert180 | Call | £3.00 | £11.00 | £63.28 | |
| Turn | |||||
| |||||
| Lambert180 | Check | ||||
| X | Bet | £7.50 | £18.50 | £38.00 | |
| Lambert180 | Call | £7.50 | £26.00 | £55.78 | |
| River | |||||
| |||||
| Lambert180 | Check | ||||
| X | Bet | £13.00 | £39.00 | £25.00 | |
| Lambert180 | All-in | £55.78 | £94.78 | £0.00 | |
Comments
Not great at maths but it looks like you need to fold out better 50% of the time for it to be a break even play and he needs to win 33% of the time to make the call. Not to sure if its a winning play in isolation tbh , maybe if you think he's folding AJ,QQ? (getting a pretty good price with these hands, but then we look really strong for same reason, bit of a levelling one maybe)
I think if you believe its close adding bluffs into your range in spots where maybe you shouldn't have too many bluffs is a good thing.
going off what your saying it sounds like his final bet with weaker hands is done on the turn so already you have got full value from these weaker hands so why not Ch/R the turn when you know there is still a chance of getting the river card to go ahead of those certain to call you ie sets, J10 maybe AA?
another benifit is If you were to get a flush on the river your guarentee to have maximum value from him. and the Kd might rule out some flush and straight draws but there is still a number of hands he has got that could call a shove ie AdQd Qd9d Ad10d which again give you more value and are still ahead ahead.
really there seems to be much more benifit than risk by doing a Ch/R on the turn rather than the river and my guess is most days you are going to Ch/R a set or J10 on the turn.
Is the player playing 30bb recreational? Assuming so, would you 3-bet isolate with 10's J's here?
Imo this line theoretically is pretty sound. This hand is going to be close to the bottom of your range assuming you play all your sets/J10s like this (I guess you fold 89s combos on the turn/raise 89dd?)
However I do wonder wether the average 50nl reg is capable of folding QQ+ for the price their getting on the river. I think a fair few might find a sigh call. You did mention in you op that you thought you could get a fold from these hands so might be ok.
Kinda feel this jam would be so much more effective if you were slightly deeper...
I wouldn't be raising sets here very often at all (on flop or turn)... I'm not really scared of backdoor flushes, and the only other draws are 89/KQ/Q9 and I doubt he even opens Q9 and 89 UTG so wouldn't be worried about being outdrawn (and know I won't get calls from them draws if I raise anyway)
Raising the turn imo would be pretty bad...
1) We're still ahead quite often so don't need to bluff.
2) When we are ahead raising just makes him snap fold literally every single hand we beat. Granted we may not be getting more value from this weaker part of his range on the river but there's still no point raising if we just get folds from all worse hands and jammed on by most stuff better.
3) When we raise, if he doesn't fold then he will be shipping everything else and V him that means my pair outs are no good and I won't have the right price to call for my FD so I'll have forced myself into folding my decent equity.
Yeah Chris I think maybe I could get sigh calls from QQ+ if he's a bit tilted/not playing his normal game some of the time but would work better if we were a tad deeper. Fwiw, it does come down to my image a bit, I have a pretty solid image and so when I check/shove this riv all hands like QQ+ and AJ turn into bluff catchers cos I'm never doing it for value with worse, and he will deffo think I'm vv rarely taking this line as a bluff.
when u raise u think an overpair could fold ?