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Help with AK facing river push

edited October 2014 in The Poker Clinic

Played villian a few times but not noticed anything out of the norm.

On this hand I raised pot with AK from the SB.  With the villian limpin from the button I am putting his range as wide 22-77 amybe upto TT, connectors suited and off suit along with one gappers, and maybe broadway cards or a suited Ax - AJ.

With a T high flop I make the cbet.  Think maybe villian has a T or draw with 79 ot J9.

When I hit the turn I make another cbet to try and take the pot down.

On the river I was checking and going to call a small bet max maybe half pot but the push throws me a little.  Think I am facing a set either 5's or 8's or maybe AT, but a small part of me thinks it could be a bluff.

Decided to fold.  Good fold or worth the call in the long run?


PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
GraeSmall blind £0.02£0.02£3.95
xBig blind £0.04£0.06£3.16
 Your hole cards
  • A
  • K
   
xFold    
xFold    
VILLIANCall £0.04£0.10£10.55
GraeRaise £0.18£0.28£3.77
xFold    
VILLIANCall £0.16£0.44£10.39
Flop
  
  • 8
  • 5
  • 10
   
GraeBet £0.22£0.66£3.55
VILLIANCall £0.22£0.88£10.17
Turn
  
  • A
   
GraeBet £0.44£1.32£3.11
VILLIANCall £0.44£1.76£9.73
River
  
  • 3
   
GraeCheck    
VILLIANAll-in £9.73£11.49£0.00
GraeFold    
VILLIANMuck    
VILLIANWin £1.62 £1.62
VILLIANReturn £9.73£0.14£11.35

Comments

  • edited October 2014
    at these stakes long term it's a good fold.

    If your going to check fold any bet that is more than half pot then you should just do the half pot yourself because you've still got value to be earned from weaker aces and second pair, whilst AQ AJ might over value top pair most Ax and all 10x will just check back as they only going to be ahead of hands which are folding.


    When attempting a bluff the player will need to make a bet that is scary for you to call, doing a bet of about half pot is going to see calls by most people so it would be pointless attempting bluffs with bets that size. This doesn't mean to say the large bets will always be bluffs and going back to my first point they unlikely to be bluffs most days on nl4.

    as played it's check fold.
  • edited October 2014
    I agree with Craig, if this is an oppo that plays a lot of micro cash then I'm not sure this is ever a bluff unless they have mis-clicked... my guess would be a set of 5s that has figured you for a decent ace after you checked the river and fancied you might call as a bluff catch (not sure 3s would have called two streets and 8s, Ts would have raised pre... has to be 5s, right?)

    And I would definitely be betting top pair/top kicker on the river. Over time I think it loses value at these stakes to not always bet with TPTK until you face a raise and have to re-evaluate (or have specific player notes that warrant a different strategy).
  • edited October 2014
    I'm 100% B/F this river. 

    I like around £1. So many times your going to get stationed from the K10,Q10,J10 type hands and your missing value in the long run.

    Additionally, when I played NL4 I was ALWAYS betting more than 1/2 pot, inbetween 3/4 and full pot to be honest, simply because the average NL4 player doesn't take notice of bet-sizing, pot odds, etc. 
  • edited October 2014
    The bad thing about hitting the ace on the turn after you missed the flop and got called is that it could have improved your opponents hand as well, this looks like two pair or a flopped set to me.
  • edited October 2014
    Your thought process/logic is really flawed. You said after villain called flop that you put him on a T or a straight draw of some sort.  Then you hit the card you were looking for OTT and instead of betting for value against the Tx and straight draws you think villain has, you are betting "to take it down" - Why do you want to take it down when you have the best hand and are betting for value? You should WANT villain to call. 

    Then the river comes and you check and villain shoves - from deciding villains most likely hand is a T or a draw, you now believe that villain must have a set or AT. But if you think he can have these hands now then you should be including them in the range of hands you think villain might have on the flop or turn. However, villain has just called 2 streets and whilst it's possible he's slow played a set, most players are going to want to raise at some point especially against 2 fairly small half pot bets. 

    At low stakes there are less players that bluff, that's true. However, when you play a hand you have to see if the story adds up and makes sense - it looks like villain isn't that strong, and then when the river doesn't change anything and you show weakness, the villain decides to go all in. I can't see how much you have behind - if it's a lot, then folding might be best since few villains are capable of overbetting as a bluff. If you only have £3 or less behind then I would be calling and making a note on how villain has played the hand.
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