Calculating outs & odds

silentbob

I was wondering if someone could clarify my thinking on working out odds & outs in any given hand as this is something I'm not particularly good at so just want to know if what I'm doing is actually correct?

As an example, say you get dealt AhKh on a 6 handed table. Blinds are 50/100 & you raise to 300 pre flop. Everyone folds except the big blind who just flat calls so the pot is now 650. Flop comes:

Jh 9s 5h

The big blind then bets out for 600. That means you have to call 600 to win 1250 giving you odds of a fraction over 2-1.

Now for arguments sake, let's say that we know villain likes to make speculative calls with reasonable face cards & drawing hands so my first thought would be that more often than not he's probably got at least top pair. If that's the case I would have a total of 15 outs? (9 remaining heart cards plus the 6 remaining aces and kings).

Now this is where I get a little bit stuck. Is it simply a case of dividing the number of cards left in the deck by the number of outs (in this case 37/15)? If so this would mean that as long as I am getting odds of at least 2.4-1 I should call right?

If that is the case then would it be correct for me to call in the above situation as I'm only getting 2-1?

Also, what if he's actually hit 2 pair? That would mean that I might only really have 8 outs right (assuming that he wouldn't of called OOP with J5)? I wouldn't include the remaining aces or kings as on their own they're no good & I assume I couldn't even count the 9h either as that would give him the full house?

Any help would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks

Jay

unknown_username

I've sent you a personal message.. I hope that helps! A bit lengthy and detailed.. 

OMahonyO

On that board with your cards it would be him doing the calculations. 

Cummins, why dont you stick up that pm on here for all to read?.  Others may be interested

unknown_username

In Response to Re: Calculating outs & odds:

On that board with your cards it would be him doing the calculations.  Cummins, why dont you stick up that pm on here for all to read?.  Others may be interested
Posted by OMahonyO

It's a PDF file... bit hard to post a pdf on a forum

silentbob

In Response to Re: Calculating outs & odds:

On that board with your cards it would be him doing the calculations.  Cummins, why dont you stick up that pm on here for all to read?.  Others may be interested
Posted by OMahonyO

Hi Mahony, I'm a little confused, why wouldn't I need to work out my odds here?

TRIP5

In Response to Re: Calculating outs & odds:

In Response to Re: Calculating outs & odds : It's a PDF file... bit hard to post a pdf on a forum
Posted by cummins

Please can you pm the pdf to me also? Many Thanks x

Talon

  The main thing you need to do when thinking about calculating odds is putting your opponent on a hand or range of hands. This decides whether you are ahead or behind. If you are ahead then he has the outs not you. His range will also decide whether or not hitting a pair will count as an out for you. But without having the faintest clue what cards they are playing then you can only count nut outs as true outs.

silentbob

Cheers Talon, that makes sense.

Burrfoot

Something I have found very useful as an indicator, especially as Im useless at maths....

On the flop, with two cards to come, every out = 4%

On turn with one card to come, every out = 2%

On this flop counting your Ace and King as outs you have 15.... (x4).... you have a 70% chance of hitting an out... (EDIT: 60%!!!! TOLD YOU I WAS RUBBIASH AT MATHS;)


but in this particular scenario there would be no point calling.. fold or allin me thinks

salazar

If you are not good at working out the odds, Just look at each out as being worth 4% on the flop and 2% on the the turn. It is not spot on but it's close enough to give you a rough idea which is what you want.

flush draw on flop. 9 outs times 4% = 36%
flush draw on turn. 9 outs times 2% = 18%
in your case you also have 3 aces and 3 kings, 6 outs worth 4% on flop and 2% on turn.

In the situation you have given you would be a slight fav if the money went in on the flop. The odds would change if an ace, king or heart did not come on the turn, where you would be an underdog

The above situation would give you 15 outs times 4% which would be 60%. This is not actually correct because if you put this through a calc it actually comes out at about 55%, probably because the calc would consider the fact that you could hit an ace on the turn but your opponent could hit 2 pair or trips on the river. Poker stove is a good tool for looking at these types of situations and it is free to download, just google it.

Obviously, what i have said is only correct if your opponent has top pair and a kicker that isn't an ace or a king. If you think your opponent has 2 pair, a set, or top pair with an ace or king kicker, you do not have the 2 over cards as outs and therefore you would need to alter your calculations accordingly

There are other factors such as pot odds and implied odds which need to be considered as well but that's for another post. It is best that you get your head round this first.