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Sorry I can't find the hand history. This was from a couple nights ago in the £50BH. I had about 31k with blinds at 500/1k and pick up K9o in the CO. Min-r to 2k and then the BTN 3-bets to 4.2k. Pretty sure they're at it - I've just moved the table and it's late stages (in the money i think about 12 left) - so I end up 4betting to about 9.5k. They flat and I bet small - think about 7k/GII on a Q98r flop (can't really fold here I guess? maybe just shipping is better) - they had Q8 anyway and held.
Recently I've been faltering at the mid-late stages and just checking it's just due to variance and not bad play on my part.
I guess the best play pre is to either ship or fold? And maybe not to bother opening if I'm going to fold to a 3-bet from the BTN. I just feel 31bb's is a big shove and it sucks when I've done this before believing opponent was 3-betting light only to get snapped by a big PP. At least if I 4-bet small I could get away if I'm shipped on (that also leads up to possibility of being 5-bet bluff shoved, but then I don't think too many players are going to be doing this anyway)
Thoughts?
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Comments
Just me who thinks it's better to keep things simple for the moment and fold to the 3bet, maybe even fold pre though is a tad nitty, at least until you have settled in at the table and identified the weaker spots/gamblers?
30bb isn't chunks but imagine it wouldn't be too far off average stack at the time at a guess....gonna be in pretty poor shape on that flop when you get set in.
As for folding flop - SPR otf is almost 1 and when I bet 7k and get shoved on it was 15/16k more to call to win 64k so I needed 25%. On a Q98 I could be ahead of enough hands especially after potentially inducing with my small sizing. (like I've seen worse 9's, worse 8's and even stuff like AJ/AT/KJ) - and against Qx I have outs. Think if I was going to b/f I may as well just ship flop since it's going to be +ev. meh, I dunno - I guess 15/16k back is still enough to play with. I think all decisions seem pretty close now but maybe I should take less small edges in the latter stages and not just go for the win every time!
Open shipping the flop might be the best line?
Or just fold pre
Don't think I had any time for a note!!
@ reeler: meh, maybe. If I had more solid of a read then maybe. But it was only a gut read and I didn't want to risk everything on that, hence the smaller 4-bet (I'd make the same play with QQ-AA plenty) And getting snapped off when you ship K9o isn't pretty. Rather ship with some suited connecter tbh