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Staking offer. Is this too good to be true?

edited November 2014 in Poker Chat
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  • edited November 2014
    So I am currently travelling round Asia and couldn't resist spending a night in Macau. This resulted in an interesting sequence of events, and an offer that sounds too good to be true.

    I played in a tournament and got chatting to a Danish guy around 40yo. We ended up heads up together, he won. We went for some drinks after, and decided to go to another casino to play some cash. The lowest stakes were 25/50hkd (2/4 sterling). I said I wasn't comfortable playing these stakes and he offered to go 50/50 on a $3000HKD buy in.

    I got up to 6k, then won a 12k pot AKs v QQ on JT9ss all in on the flop. A on turn :)

    We went out to celebrate and he ended up offering to stake me to play the $25/50 games. The arrangeent would be that he puts up 100% of the bankroll, and we split the profit 50/50. 

    At first I thought it might just be drunk talk, but we have been exchanging emails and he wants to start a trail month where he puts up $50,000HKD (About 4k).

    Although this sounds like an amazing oppurtunity, there is a part of my thinking if it sounds too good to be true then it proably is. I mean, what sane person offers to put up 4k for a guy he has just met at the casino?

    I would be very interested to hear people's thoughts on whether this seems legit, or if I would just be getting myself into an uncomfortale sitation?

    Also any advice from anyone with experience staking or being staked would be greately appreciated. Does this sound like a fair deal? and what are the most important things to sort out in a staking arrangement before going into a deal like this (besides the money)?

    Thanks.
  • edited November 2014
    Has he invited you back to his gaff for ''nibbles'' yet?
  • edited November 2014
    The saying: "If it's too good to be true then it probably is" isn't always correct. You've got to look at what the other party is getting out of it. In this case, as long as they believe you're a winning player with an edge in these games then they're clearly getting something back from it. Yes, he's only just met you but maybe he has a good judge of character! Who knows. As long as you aren't putting up your own money, what have you got to lose? 

    I guess worst case scenario is you lose the lot and he wants the money back and gets debt collectors to sort you out!! But if you've met him face to face then you'll have an idea for his character and whether he's the sort that would do that. 
  • edited November 2014
    Get a Contract......Read the small print very carefully
     
    I can offer to stake you 50K and split the profit 50/50 - but what if you lose? is that a no win no fee offer?

    Contracts in staking are very important to get right
  • edited November 2014
    lol mellows and hhyftrftdr, he did actually refer to us as 'partners' once to deter some ladyboys so I fear your jokes may not be too far off the mark.

    @Ivanovic yeah my main worries (besides nibbles) are if he asks me to put up some sort of deposit and then I just ever see him again. Or if I have lost money at the end of the trail period and want out of the arragement and he starts demanding some form of payment. What happens in a normal staking deal if the player is at a loss and wants out of the arrangement?

    @pokertrev I was wondering about contracts. Do the majority of staking deals have contracts? I get the impression this guy wanted to work on 'trust' ie. no contract. If we just draw up a contract together in a hotel room somewhere is that still legally binding? or would we need laywers involved?
  • edited November 2014


    A reasonably well known player in the UK is famous for doing something similar to this, he did it for many years in fact.

    He would approach several recreational players before a Tournament.

    "Hi, I watched you play the other day, you play pretty good, are you playing the Tourney tomorrow night?"

    "Yes, that's the plan"

    "OK, tell you what, I'm looking for some decent players to invest in, I'll pay 100% of your entry fee, & you get to keep 50% of anything you win, how does that sound?"

    "What? A total freeroll? Yes please, great thank you."

    "OK, meet me just before before the Tourney starts, I'l have the cash with me, & we'll get you paid in. 50/50 split of any winnings, right?"

    "Right"

    "Booked"


    And of course, the trick was.....

    Mr Staker would turn up late the next night, or even not at all, instead turning up a day later. And if "his player" had cashed he would ask for 50% of the winnings. And if his player had not cashed, he might not even bother showing up. 

    He relied on human nature & naivety. The player assumed the Staker was good for the money, & paid his own entry fee, believing that Mr Staker was good to his word, & that he was being staked.

    In fact, one of the 861 Analysts got "stung" by this chap a few years ago.
  • edited November 2014
    call me naive but it sounds like the backer is way more at risk once the stake has been handed over,




  • edited November 2014
    In Response to Re: Staking offer. Is this too good to be true?:
    call me naive but it sounds like the backer is way more at risk once the stake has been handed over,
    Posted by yoyo
    As long as he hands it over in advance - every time - yes.
  • edited November 2014
    In Response to Re: Staking offer. Is this too good to be true?:
    call me naive but it sounds like the backer is way more at risk once the stake has been handed over,
    Posted by yoyo

    I'll sort your entry fee for London next week Julian. Usual terms 50/50. I'll square u up when I get there ��
  • edited November 2014
  • edited November 2014
    Lol maybe thats how he is making his millions back from online losses.
  • edited November 2014
    When he "he offered to go 50/50 on a $300HKD buy in" did he actually give you the $150 up front?
  • edited November 2014
    Unfortunately it wasnt gus hansen :( He wasn't a poker pro either, said he owned some companies

    Yeah he gave me half the money before we sat down the other night. He has said he would give me the entrie bankroll up front for the staking deal. My main concern is what happens if I have lost money by the end of the trial month.
  • edited November 2014
    Well I think contracts are totally pointless about this kind of thing.

    As long as you don't think he's 'dangerous' then I can't see what he can do to you should you lose.  You are both foreigners in Macau, what can happen should you choose to get on the plane?

    My advice with staking deals is always the same.  It is far better to start off smaller with your own money and build up slowly than go for these sort of things.  Everyone wants an easy path to success now.

    There are some people out there who offer these kind of arrangements as a way to get involved with you personally too; either they are just lonesly and want a friend or something more.  

  • edited November 2014
    In Response to Re: Staking offer. Is this too good to be true?:
    Well I think contracts are totally pointless about this kind of thing. As long as you don't think he's 'dangerous' then I can't see what he can do to you should you lose.  You are both foreigners in Macau, what can happen should you choose to get on the plane? My advice with staking deals is always the same.  It is far better to start off smaller with your own money and build up slowly than go for these sort of things.  Everyone wants an easy path to success now. There are some people out there who offer these kind of arrangements as a way to get involved with you personally too; either they are just lonesly and want a friend or something more.  
    Posted by scotty77
    Thanks for letting me have a % of you at WPT!

    xxx
  • edited November 2014
    Enjoy Macau, jet setter you!

    Sounds a bit weird mate the whole situation with this guy.

    I would probably stay clear of it and just play of your own money.

    You have already won a few £ and so as he so you can leave it on good terms.

    Other thing is playing 25/50 do you think you could play optimally given the set up?

    Enjoy the holiday!

     
  • edited November 2014
    Don't know why but i keep thinking about the DEER HUNTER + RUSSIAN ROULETTE.
  • edited November 2014
    @Scotty77 He didn't seem dangerous on the night, although he did seem well connected in the Macau club scene, maybe the two go hand in hand lol 

    @Larson yeah it was all a bit bizzare. 25/50HKD is equivelent of 2/4, so its not quite as big as it sounds (although still tonnes bigger than I am used to). The standard did seem pretty bad as well. He wants me to start a trial month in Feb as apparently thats the best time for tourists. I think I am just going to go for it and see what happens, and just be careful about making sure I get the staking money in advance!
  • edited November 2014
    This could go two ways - on the one hand what you describe could be the opening to a 'The Colour of Money' type story where the veteran hustler (played by Paul Newman) with his keen eye spots a unique and as yet untapped talent (you - or Tom Cruise) and takes him under his wing, yet on the other hand ...... single Western backpacker travelling around Asia, befriended by this apparently benevolent stranger - it could all just as well be the opening to the screenplay for Hostel 3. In fact it sounds like such an inventive set up that someone should call up Eli Roth and sell him the pitch.

    In all seriousness I would echo what people have said about proceeding with caution. Don't be flattered into thinking that this complete stranger is only interested in your Poker playing abilities. That is not to say that you are not genuinely a good player and maybe he has spotted that and has plenty of cash to splash around - but for certain there will be some other motivation also at play here. Like Ryan suggests it could be something as simple and benign as just a lonely guy being a bit overly enthusiastic about making a friend, but this is the best case scenario and even then you are putting yourself in an awkward position where you are essentially exploiting his loneliness for your own financial benefit so my advice would be do the safe and decent thing and politely excuse yourself from any further correspondence or 'relationship'. And worst case scenario you could be getting yourself into something a whole lot more difficult to get yourself out of.

    I once found myself in a strange situation like this in Vegas. It didn't involve staking but was a similarly 'too god to be true type scenario'. I was playing in a cash game and some guy who had been at the table for about an hour and who I'd exchanged a couple of laughs with just flat called my river bet with the 2nd nuts - he had pocket Aces on a paired board with an Ace on it for Aces full so would have only lost if I was holding specifically pocket 66's (or whatever the pair on the board was) and so very few players would legitimately just call there  and as it happens I had a lower full house so if he'd re raised me he would have got my whole stack. I was genuinely shocked and asked him why he didn't re raise and he said something like 'because we 're mates aren't we' and looked genuinely hurt and offended that I didn't  realise this and share the sentiment (we had only played together for an hour). Later in the session he started following me out when I went for cigarette breaks (asking for one of mine - he didn't have any of his own) and at one point he showed me a photo on his phone of a girl in a revealing (to put it mildly) pose who he said was his girlfriend. Now this girl was stunning in a very explicit adult movie star type of way and then he said she had two friends with her who looked just the same and asked me if I wanted to join them in their room for a 'party'!!

    I made my excuses and left and while perhaps I shouldn't have looked a gift horse in the mouth because if genuine that would have been one hell of a 'party' but there just seemed no way that this whole thing could have been genuine - I just aint that lucky.
  • edited November 2014
    In Response to Re: Staking offer. Is this too good to be true?:
    @Scotty77 He didn't seem dangerous on the night, although he did seem well connected in the Macau club scene, maybe the two go hand in hand lol  @Larson yeah it was all a bit bizzare. 25/50HKD is equivelent of 2/4, so its not quite as big as it sounds (although still tonnes bigger than I am used to). The standard did seem pretty bad as well. He wants me to start a trial month in Feb as apparently thats the best time for tourists. I think I am just going to go for it and see what happens, and just be careful about making sure I get the staking money in advance!
    Posted by Thoich

    If its cash he's giving you, i would check its not fake and he's trying to launder it through you.

    Gl
  • edited November 2014
    Most staking deals will involve make - up ( I stake a few players on other sites )

    Make up will be if a player is in the negtive for you then he will be in a situation where he has to play his way out of the hole (On the backers money still)

    For example -

    night one you lose 500

    night 2 you win 1000

    You will not just split the 1000 down the middle. the backer will take the 500 losses from the previous night. that will leave you with 500 to split down the middle.


    That is the only legitimate way for a backer to make money. it is a fair way but the backer will always be the one to provide funds.

    A backer can pull out anytime where a player can not. if you are - £4000 you will have to make attempts to get out of makeup or agree a specific time range with the backer.


    If it is just him putting up money and you get 50% he is dumb and even if you make money.... he will not long term.
  • edited November 2014
    looks to good to be true tbh ha 
  • edited November 2014
    MATT8 you have echoed my own thoughts very nicely (especially the comparison between myself and Tom Cruise). A part of me does worry that this could end up in a hostel 3 kind of situation. Even to the point where I have been thinking of ways to communicate that I am in trouble to friends/family back home lol and then I think if I am even considering these measure's then that should be a sign to back away now.

    One thing making me think it is legit is that I asked if I could start in December and he said it would be better to wait for late Jan for the Chinese New Year tourists. Surely if he was a psychotic murderer he would have agreed to let me start early (unless he is just pulled the ultimate level!).

    VespaPX very good shout! Macau prison sounds equally as fun as a hostel 3 type situation!

    Itsover4u the deal would involve makeup. If I lost a couple of buy ins early in the month any profit would first go towards paying back losses. If I was at a loss at the end of the trial month he said he would be happy to take the financial hit and put it down as a failed venture.
  • edited November 2014

    Out of interest, how fast can you run Thoich?

  • edited November 2014
    Lol if it was a fair race, I would back myself to outrun this guy. However I fear if things turn nasty I'm not going to be given the liberty of a fair race.
  • edited November 2014


    hi man

    do you think he is a far worse player than you?  as otherwise there is nothing in it for him.  he could play with the money himself. 

    are you a profitable player?  if so, finance yourself and keep 100%

    i fear that if you continue there might be some pain coming your way at some stage. 

    sir, step away from the sweet tin.







     
  • edited November 2014
    In Response to Re: Staking offer. Is this too good to be true?:
    hi man do you think he is a far worse player than you?  as otherwise there is nothing in it for him.  he could play with the money himself.  are you a profitable player?  if so, finance yourself and keep 100% i fear that if you continue there might be some pain coming your way at some stage.  sir, step away from the sweet tin.  
    Posted by aussie09
    LIKE
  • edited November 2014
    In Response to Re: Staking offer. Is this too good to be true?:
    MATT8 you have echoed my own thoughts very nicely (especially the comparison between myself and Tom Cruise). A part of me does worry that this could end up in a hostel 3 kind of situation. Even to the point where I have been thinking of ways to communicate that I am in trouble to friends/family back home lol and then I think if I am even considering these measure's then that should be a sign to back away now. One thing making me think it is legit is that I asked if I could start in December and he said it would be better to wait for late Jan for the Chinese New Year tourists. Surely if he was a psychotic murderer he would have agreed to let me start early (unless he is just pulled the ultimate level!). VespaPX very good shout! Macau prison sounds equally as fun as a hostel 3 type situation! Itsover4u the deal would involve makeup. If I lost a couple of buy ins early in the month any profit would first go towards paying back losses. If I was at a loss at the end of the trial month he said he would be happy to take the financial hit and put it down as a failed venture.
    Posted by Thoich

    Ironically this situation is very similar to playing poker game and you have to go with your gut feeling, which by the sounds of it you either thinking you are going to be in jail or worse can only be a bad thing.

  • edited November 2014
    In Response to Re: Staking offer. Is this too good to be true?:
    MATT8 you have echoed my own thoughts very nicely (especially the comparison between myself and Tom Cruise). A part of me does worry that this could end up in a hostel 3 kind of situation. Even to the point where I have been thinking of ways to communicate that I am in trouble to friends/family back home lol and then I think if I am even considering these measure's then that should be a sign to back away now. One thing making me think it is legit is that I asked if I could start in December and he said it would be better to wait for late Jan for the Chinese New Year tourists. Surely if he was a psychotic murderer he would have agreed to let me start early (unless he is just pulled the ultimate level!). VespaPX very good shout! Macau prison sounds equally as fun as a hostel 3 type situation! Itsover4u the deal would involve makeup. If I lost a couple of buy ins early in the month any profit would first go towards paying back losses. If I was at a loss at the end of the trial month he said he would be happy to take the financial hit and put it down as a failed venture.
    Posted by Thoich


    The deal is more than likely legit and he probably know what he is doing. £2 /£4 cash games live (maccau) are a hell of a lot weaker than a £2 /£4 online table with 3/4 regs.

    In all seriousness it probably plays like a 25nl table online.

    If the stake is above your usual limits and you can viably make more than if you ground it out yourself at lower limits then grab the opportunity with both hands!

    If you want to discuss any of non standard staking arrangements feel free to drop me a pm and I should be able to help.
  • edited November 2014


    staking someone where you take 50% of the winnings in any one month and where the losses are 100% rolled over is a fantastic deal for me.  not for you. 

    i would look for volatile players who are good enough to break even.  i would need to find some bond that ensured that losses were recoverable in the future.  fantastic deal.

    simple maths...

    stake £1,000 each month.  the player wins £500 and loses £500 and wins £500 and etc. 

    month 1 he wins and I take £250
    month 2 take nothing but owed £500. 
    month 3 take £250 plus £250 of the owed money leaving £250 owed. 
    month 4 take nothing but owed £750. 
    month 5 take £250 plus £250 of the owed money leaving £500 owed. 
    month 6 take nothing but owed £1,000.
    and so on.

    it will be worse if the first month was losing month.

    staked player has broken even but owes £1,000 after 6 months
    me as a staker has taken £1,250 and you owe me £1,000

    i win, i win, i win

    i just need a bond of friendship, or a bond of honour, or a bond of some heavies to ensure you pay the £1,000 owed to me.... and you are the break even player.  you played a breakeven game for 6 months yet you owe me.

    how good is that.



     
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