Flop Decision...

mrdavies

mucker267	Small blind		£0.10	£0.10	£27.27
mrdavies	Big blind		£0.20	£0.30	£32.78
Th1nkerman	Sit out
	Your hole cards	Q Q
shorrock09	Call		£0.20	£0.50	£26.94
splashies	Fold
sevlow	Raise		£0.80	£1.30	£29.69
mucker267	Call		£0.70	£2.00	£26.57
mrdavies	Raise		£3.20	£5.20	£29.58
shorrock09	Fold
sevlow	Call		£2.60	£7.80	£27.09
mucker267	Call		£2.60	£10.40	£23.97
Flop
		5 10 J
mucker267	Check
mrdavies	Bet		£7.80	£18.20	£21.78
sevlow	Raise		£16.00	£34.20	£11.09
mucker267	All-in		£23.97	£58.17	£0.00

mrdavies

Reads:-

Mucker - loose as a goose his hand could vary from 510 to 26hearts lol, he was limping every pot regardless of position or hand etc.. so not too worried about his range.

Sevlow - fairly tight, he had made a few squeeze plays identical to this prior & I had raised exact amount but with not such a strong holding to whihc he folded, so I thought he was being stubborn..

my thinking is Im defo against a jack (mucker) and sevlow got huge draw with loads equity..so do i call?

hhyftrftdr

Fold.

77Chris91

In Response to Re: Flop Decision...:

Fold.
Posted by hhyftrftdr

Say whattt???

It's gonna end up being like £19 to win £90 odd?

If he thinks he's up against a strong combo draw it's definitely a call...

hhyftrftdr

In Response to Re: Flop Decision...:

In Response to Re: Flop Decision... : Say whattt??? It's gonna end up being like £19 to win £90 odd? If he thinks he's up against a strong combo draw it's definitely a call...
Posted by 77Chris91

If we are somehow ahead on this flop, surely it's only ever so slightly ahead? Think 1010 and JJ are very feasible holdings for one of them, and any combo draw is likely to have overcard equity as well.

I'd snap one but vs 2....

hhyftrftdr

Just seen the last line about thinking of being up against a J and a combo draw....if that's your read then yeah stick the money in

77Chris91

In Response to Re: Flop Decision...:

In Response to Re: Flop Decision... : If we are somehow ahead on this flop, surely it's only ever so slightly ahead? Think 1010 and JJ are very feasible holdings for one of them, and any combo draw is likely to have overcard equity as well. I'd snap one but vs 2....
Posted by hhyftrftdr

Yeh were not exactly fist pumping if btn rolls over 89hh etc but it's still a call given the pot odds.

I would expect btn to flat with 10's or J's to keep 'loose goose' in as well...

mrdavies

J9 & AA WAS THE 2 HANDS...NEEDLES TO THE J9 WON LOL.

F_Ivanovic

So we need 22.4% equity to call (we need to call £19.30 to win a pot of about £86, 19.3/86 = 22.4)

Use PPT or pokerstove and input some ranges. Sevlow is 1st in the list, mucker is 2nd and Hero is 3rd

board: JhTh5s

Hand	Equity	Wins	Ties
AA, KhQh, AhKh, AhQh, JJ, JsTs	65.52%	5,569,588	33,222
AJ-8J, AT-8T, KQ, 89, Q9	19.20%	1,599,520	74,790
QQ	15.28%	1,269,916	65,591

Based on this it seems a clear fold. If we get rid of JJ in sevlow's range we only have 16.3% and still a clear fold. If we get rid of AA but keep in JJ we have 21% and it's still just a fold. Only if we get rid of AA and JJ and put sevlow solely on draws and 1 JTs combo do we have 29% equity and enough to call.

Messing about with mucker's range doesn't change anything much at all - even if I add in any 5x our equity stays the same. So it's mostly about what sevlow can have. Sevlow could also have KK and TT (and perhaps more JTs) but I thought sometimes he 4-bets with KK and sometimes flats flop with a set. But if he did have these hands then our equity would be even lower.

So yeah, it's a fold. We'd have to be almost certain that sevlow only has a draw or JT here for a shove to be correct. Given sevlow showed up with AA and not a draw then that was obviously not the case. btw - what was your reasoning for thinking sevlow had a draw and not a made hand?

77Chris91

In Response to Re: Flop Decision...:

So we need 22.4% equity to call (we need to call £19.30 to win a pot of about £86, 19.3/86 = 22.4) Use PPT or pokerstove and input some ranges. Sevlow is 1st in the list, mucker is 2nd and Hero is 3rd board: JhTh5s Hand Equity Wins Ties AA, KhQh, AhKh, AhQh, JJ, JsTs 65.52% 5,569,588 33,222 AJ-8J, AT-8T, KQ, 89, Q9 19.20% 1,599,520 74,790 QQ 15.28% 1,269,916 65,591 Based on this it seems a clear fold. If we get rid of JJ in sevlow's range we only have 16.3% and still a clear fold. If we get rid of AA but keep in JJ we have 21% and it's still just a fold. Only if we get rid of AA and JJ and put sevlow solely on draws and 1 JTs combo do we have 29% equity and enough to call. Messing about with mucker's range doesn't change anything much at all - even if I add in any 5x our equity stays the same. So it's mostly about what sevlow can have. Sevlow could also have KK and TT (and perhaps more JTs) but I thought sometimes he 4-bets with KK and sometimes flats flop with a set. But if he did have these hands then our equity would be even lower. So yeah, it's a fold. We'd have to be almost certain that sevlow only has a draw or JT here for a shove to be correct. Given sevlow showed up with AA and not a draw then that was obviously not the case. btw - what was your reasoning for thinking sevlow had a draw and not a made hand?
Posted by F_Ivanovic

Considering Sevlow is 150bb effective and ip vs hero imo the range you have assigned him is too tight. I would assume they would defend any Axhh and play it post the same way.

Think our equity goes up slightly if we include FD's for Mucker as well?

Closer than I thought tbh when I first saw the HH.