did i bluff bet a street too late?

craigcu12

when it's aces kings and QQ i'm thinking an all in on the turn could be a bad thing because i want them hands to be called whilst JJ and 1010 might be behind sometimes but it's got enough showdown value. if he had a set i'm thinking surely he would do a bet on the turn leaving me thinking he has top pair so i decide to bluff and he makes the call.

under pairs i'm thinking will likely to fold on the turn to most bets and sets will be sure to call or 3bet jam leaving me with just the top pair in question and as the pot will likely get bigger than chip stack doing a value bet ii st better to overbet jam?

PORKO	Small blind		£0.20	£0.20	£85.03
danrouse06	Big blind		£0.40	£0.60	£26.01
	Your hole cards	K A
ElleJaySea	Raise		£1.20	£1.80	£68.24
craigcu12	Raise		£3.60	£5.40	£35.80
Toshiro	Call		£3.60	£9.00	£36.40
PORKO	Fold
danrouse06	Fold
ElleJaySea	Fold
Flop
		3 8 Q
craigcu12	Bet		£4.50	£13.50	£31.30
Toshiro	Call		£4.50	£18.00	£31.90
Turn
		5
craigcu12	Bet		£8.40	£26.40	£22.90
Toshiro	Call		£8.40	£34.80	£23.50
River
		8
craigcu12	All-in		£22.90	£57.70	£0.00
Toshiro	Call		£22.90	£80.60	£0.60

TeddyBloat

Dont like it to be honest craig. The 8 smacks his range hard and if he has a queen then he is unlikely to fold this river.

Also if you think about your overall range then you will have better bluffing hands as AK might still win at showdown. Unlikely, but if you are going to have a check/fold range and lets face it we want a check/fold range here,  then it should comprise hands like AK that will win at showdown some % of the time.

Better to bomb the very bottom of your range that benefits from folds if thats your thang.

But work out how many folds you need for the bluff to work, and put villain on a river starting range and use propokertools to work out what % of that range folds river. Therein lies your answer.

As for overbetting turn, have you considered checking turn? The 5 is a blank and you beat the hands you are trying to fold out? Trying to get top pair or even second pair is kinda optimistic v  some maybe most villains. Again work out how many folds you need, then put him on a range and see if you can get enough folds. And by range I dont just mean "top pair". He will start turn with gutshots, king and ace high, bottom pair, underpairs etc etc. Actually look at the combos and see if you can fold enough out for the bluff to work as a pure bluff. You will also have equity in the hand so you dont need ti match the pure fold equity required. But try to work out the maths side craig it will help get a feel for these sorts of boards

I dont mind the turn barrel, but id be looking to give up this river.

77Chris91

^^^ I doubt villain has a single 8 in his range given he cold called a 3-bet after a MP open and CO 3-bet.

^^^ Valid points made about bluffing with AK but in this specific situation (being oop and villain cold calling 3-bet) your just never gonna win at showdown.

Do you have any info/reads on villain Craig? Roughly knowing the villains range for cold calling your 3-bet is gonna alter how often you want to fire 3 barrels here.

Without any further info this doesn't look too bad to me. Your going to have loads of value combos in this spot (AA, KK, QQ, AQ, A8s,) so you will need to have some bluffs. AK has blockers to AA, KK, AQ, KQ which make up a very large % of villains river calling range so seems a pretty decent candidate to fire 3 here.

F_Ivanovic

As Chris said the 8 doesn't hit villains range but it doesn't change the board and generally people are reluctant to fold their hand on a river blank. Villain cold calling pre and then calling 2 streets on this board also leaves me pretty certain that he's not folding river. His range is mostly JJ-AA and AQ with some TT and 99. AQ and QQ-AA are calling so your basically hoping to fold out 99-JJ. 

If your always 3-barreling AK here then he has an easy call down with them hands too, since AK has many more combos than value hands. Once in a while this is OK but then you need some way to determine which AK hands you are going to make this play with. Also you might have other bluff hands in your range that you want to bluff with too - which will reduce the amount of AK hands you can bluff with. I guess you could say you could bluff with all your AK hands with the As (and the AsKs) but a small problem with this is that us holding the As means villain can't be chasing a FD (thus always has some value hand OTR)

I'm probably not c-betting the flop much btw and if I do I'm probably shutting down on the turn a lot. I think if you fire 2 with this hand though you pretty much have to fire a 3rd barrel because villain is never folding to a 2nd barrel after calling the flop.

TeddyBloat

Completely missed the open, thought it was a single raised pot

hhyftrftdr

In Response to Re: did i bluff bet a street too late?:

As Chris said the 8 doesn't hit villains range but it doesn't change the board and generally people are reluctant to fold their hand on a river blank. Villain cold calling pre and then calling 2 streets on this board also leaves me pretty certain that he's not folding river. His range is mostly JJ-AA and AQ with some TT and 99. AQ and QQ-AA are calling so your basically hoping to fold out 99-JJ.  If your always 3-barreling AK here then he has an easy call down with them hands too, since AK has many more combos than value hands. Once in a while this is OK but then you need some way to determine which AK hands you are going to make this play with. Also you might have other bluff hands in your range that you want to bluff with too - which will reduce the amount of AK hands you can bluff with. I guess you could say you could bluff with all your AK hands with the As (and the AsKs) but a small problem with this is that us holding the As means villain can't be chasing a FD (thus always has some value hand OTR) I'm probably not c-betting the flop much btw and if I do I'm probably shutting down on the turn a lot. I think if you fire 2 with this hand though you pretty much have to fire a 3rd barrel because villain is never folding to a 2nd barrel after calling the flop.
Posted by F_Ivanovic

This.

RandomHobo

Interesting hand. 

 I think you should have check raised all 3 streets and folded if he shoved the river. That seems optimal to me.

craigcu12

as predicted it was AQ he had and my thinking is the fact the board was so dry i've got very little in terms of hands he wants to protect from so was going to call all the way.

PORKO	Small blind		£0.20	£0.20	£85.03
danrouse06	Big blind		£0.40	£0.60	£26.01
	Your hole cards	K A
ElleJaySea	Raise		£1.20	£1.80	£68.24
craigcu12	Raise		£3.60	£5.40	£35.80
Toshiro	Call		£3.60	£9.00	£36.40
PORKO	Fold
danrouse06	Fold
ElleJaySea	Fold
Flop
		3 8 Q
craigcu12	Bet		£4.50	£13.50	£31.30
Toshiro	Call		£4.50	£18.00	£31.90
Turn
		5
craigcu12	Bet		£8.40	£26.40	£22.90
Toshiro	Call		£8.40	£34.80	£23.50
River
		8
craigcu12	All-in		£22.90	£57.70	£0.00
Toshiro	Call		£22.90	£80.60	£0.60
craigcu12	Show	K A
Toshiro	Show	Q A
Toshiro	Win	Two Pairs, Queens and 8s	£78.80		£79.40

how does this sound

had it been that 5s rather than the 8c he would have had the risk of a flush too and as i've got the As myself it does seem unlike of him to have the flush so it get's me thinking is the flops which come with 2+ cards matching the suit of my A the best ones to attempt the bluff because the likely hood is most players will call the cbet so then i ask for a free card and force them to either face a possible CH/R or allow me the chance of a free river card which in turn could me that flush?

TeddyBloat

Having a backdoor flush makes cbetting better, but it also makes checking better too. It basically makes everything better lol.People undervalue backdoor draws. 

They are essentially worth one-out in terms of how often they come in, but draws do better than their equity-share, so always look out for backdoor equity, it can tip a close decision to , for example,  being a call instead of fold.

With regard to your hand, just be aware of peoples ranges and tendencies in 3bt pots. I dont play deep stack cash, but I imagine many will be fit or fold and you can look to make two small barrels and give up on dry or blank river  runouts. Youll know the best strat better than me though, given your player pool.

Keep playing with ranges in mind.