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Horse Racing Advice/ Q&A with Neil Channing
Hi all,
This thread is going to be a bit of a discussion with Mr Channing about the best ways to get into horse betting on a limited bankroll.
Neil has kindly agreed to spare some time to give some advice, I have spoken with him on twitter, and this is legit. I am not here to start a random spam thread/click bait just using his name.
I come from a fairly solid online poker background, and understand BRM well, my curiousity into horse betting has been around for years, and more so recently after learning a lot from a work colleague about reading form, and as a result I have some OK results.
My main questions for Neil are:
How can you/is it possible to apply simialr BRM from poker, to horse betting?
What are the best bets to be making with a limited BR, in order to grow it quickly?
I tend to do lucky 15/30/60s etc etc but find them really frustrating as I will often pick some decent winners at longer odds such as 8/1 or 9/1 then have the rest of the slip miss and end up breaking even or taking a small loss. Then I end up feeling like I would have been better off just placing small bets on a few individual horses for the day. I guess a lot of this is going to be recall bias and my brain thinking in a bit too short terms results oriented way.
So yea, any thoughts and advice from Mr Channing is going to be invaluable, and thanks in advance for sparing the time mate.
Comments
Anytime the bookies appear to make it easier for you with printed betting slips where you have to just put in horses names is pushed towards making the bookies more money.
It is hard enough to pick one winner so why oh why would you put the same stake on four horses to win as you would one!
No problem with multiple bets but please alter your staking plan from Lucky anything, they usually aren't
.
My advice instead of a Lucky fifteen 15 x say 3 points each would be to have
five point singles.
three point doubles
two point trebles
one point four folds.
This way you should be able to make a nice profit on the bet even if you only get one or two winners. If you get all four thank your lucky stars and take the big profits.
My favourite bet is a patent:
3 selections= 3 Singles @3 pts each
3 doubles @ 2pts each
1 treble @ 1pt
If the odds are more than 4/1 do all the bets e/w
As to getiing loads of winners and not making much, we can all put the wrong horses in the wrong multiples. I can nearly always bet that if I do three trebles I will get one winner in each rather than three in one.
Its called SO DS LAW
I'm also not the only person that can have a good input on your question so hopefully others will contribute.
Let me start with your first question.
I absolutely think Bank Roll Management that you should use in poker is equally important in sports betting or horses. In poker tournaments people sometimes say that 3% to 5% of your total poker bankroll should be the most you spend on one tournament. I think that is a good guideline. If your "poker bankroll" is every penny you have in the world you might err towards 2% or 3% and if you have a nice amount that you keep separate and a good source o income to replenish if things go badly then you can be more aggressive.
With horses, if you like to bet on big handicaps where your selections have an average price of 7/1 or more then you might think 5% of your bankroll on each bet is OK, if you bet lots of 10/11 chances (maybe football overs and unders) then you can be way more aggressive.
If a large proportion of your bets are "longshot" multiples then each bet should be a tiny proportion of the bankroll.
On multiples everyone else has covered it. They are often terrible bets. If you have a -ev bet and then put it in a multiple with some other -ev bets then you are making the negative expectation on that bet much worse. If you do manage to find several +ev bets and put them together you will increase your variance but massively increase your positive expectation. The problem is there will be very few days that you find three or four really good +ev bets and when you do it could take 200 attempts for the "long-run" to come through. It's a bit like playing poker tournaments, you should always expect to lose and you need to be mentally strong to cope with the swings.
In general multiples are bad bets that can be good.