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A little DTD prop bet.

waller02waller02
edited January 2015 in Poker Chat
During the "rainman" 2.20 @ 2.20 yesterday I was chatting with hhyftrftdr regarding a challenge he had set himself for 2015.

He is going to try to win all 3 Monday night dtd tournaments on the same night. I basically said he has no chance, I just don't think it will ever be done.......and certainly not by him in the next year. So I told him that if he does it within the next year then I will donate £100 to a charity of his choice. Now, just like my poker, I'm also tight with my money so that shows how confident I am that he won't do it. I don't think anybody will do it.

I am going to playing dtd again most weeks next year and he also agreed to match the £100 to a charity of my choice if I just happen to do it.......which I won't!

What do you DTD regs think? Can it be done? I know people have won 2/3 before and many have ft'd all 3 but I just can't see anybody winning all 3.

If either harry or myself manage to luckbox it then our respective charities will deserve the money!!!
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Comments

  • hhyftrftdrhhyftrftdr
    edited December 2014
    In Response to A little DTD prop bet.:
    During the "rainman" 2.20 @ 2.20 yesterday I was chatting with hhyftrftdr regarding a challenge he had set himself for 2015. He is going to try to win all 3 Monday night dtd tournaments on the same night. I basically said he has no chance, I just don't think it will ever be done.......and certainly not by him in the next year. So I told him that if he does it within the next year then I will donate £100 to a charity of his choice. Now, just like my poker, I'm also tight with my money so that shows how confident I am that he won't do it. I don't think anybody will do it. I am going to playing dtd again most weeks next year and he also agreed to match the £100 to a charity of my choice if I just happen to do it.......which I won't! What do you DTD regs think? Can it be done? I know people have won 2/3 before and many have ft'd all 3 but I just can't see anybody winning all 3. If either harry or myself manage to luckbox it then our respective charities will deserve the money!!!
    Posted by waller02
    If by 'people', you mean person, then yes, a person has won 2/3 before. I'm not sure who it was though.... ;)

    I'm looking forward to it. Gonna be insanely difficult to achieve, but then it wouldn't be a challenge if it was easy. Last nights practise went swimmingly. Think I was out of DTD1 in about 118th place!
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  • SlipwaterSlipwater
    edited December 2014
    It's very unlikely, and like you said: if it's going to happen, it ain't gonna be him ;)

    I've got a better chance than Malcolm, and I play it far less often than he does.

    Good luck... and I hope you keep the money in your wallet.
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  • CraigSG1CraigSG1
    edited December 2014
    Almost nothing is impossible. Unlikely maybe, but I think someone can do it.

    If someone can win the Main and Mini in the same night, then surely someone can win all three DTDs with smaller player pools.

    I think you should make it a general challange to all. If its impossible, you have nothing to lose...
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  • hhyftrftdrhhyftrftdr
    edited December 2014
    In Response to Re: A little DTD prop bet.:
    Almost nothing is impossible. Unlikely maybe, but I think someone can do it. If someone can win the Main and Mini in the same night, then surely someone can win all three DTDs with smaller player pools. I think you should make it a general challange to all. If its impossible, you have nothing to lose...
    Posted by CraigSG1
    Throw it open to all, the more the merrier! If anyone wins 3/3 in one week, £100 of my hard earned will go to a charity of their choice.

    Game on.
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  • waller02waller02
    edited December 2014

    Yep I will put my money where my mouth is too then. If ANYBODY does it in 2015 then I will donate £100.

    Watch the likes of mattbates, tommyd, divs etc start playing now!!!  Who cares, they won't do it either lol...........challenge on!

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  • CraigSG1CraigSG1
    edited December 2014
    :)

    Well played boys. 

    Shame im out Mondays as would love to play these. And my girlfriends "New Bag" charity is always eager for donations.
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  • ommomm
    edited December 2014
    Great idea lads and this is just the sort of thing Sky should be getting behind as well, I know it's a player run tournament(s) but not so long ago tikay put up a thread for challenges for next year, he didn't make any promises but I reckon if someone could do this then It's worthy for a chunk of money to go to the charity of their choice. I don't get the chance to play much on a Monday myself, I'll try, however if someone achieves this very very difficult task I'll be in for a £25 donation. 

    Good luck all. 
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  • samantha25samantha25
    edited December 2014
    GL Ryan :)
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  • SlipwaterSlipwater
    edited December 2014
    I'll bet MattBates' 2014 Sky profits that I do it before Malcolm does ;)
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  • hhyftrftdrhhyftrftdr
    edited January 2015

    No joy this week.

    1 FT, 1 ITM and one disaster when I bet bet jammed AK on an AA10 4 5.....They'd housed up on river with A5, and I busted soon after that in something like 118th, sigh.

    Anyone come close tonight?

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  • Matt237Matt237
    edited January 2015
    £50 if anyone, £100 for a TPTer. Good luck all.
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  • F_IvanovicF_Ivanovic
    edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: A little DTD prop bet.:
    Almost nothing is impossible. Unlikely maybe, but I think someone can do it. If someone can win the Main and Mini in the same night, then surely someone can win all three DTDs with smaller player pools. I think you should make it a general challange to all. If its impossible, you have nothing to lose...
    Posted by CraigSG1
    Winning main and mini is much easier though in terms of probability. Every night someone is going to win the main. If they enter the mini as well, then depending on player pool size they'll have a 1 in (the player pool size) so maybe 1 in 400. Less if they're a good player. More if they're not! Given this (it's close to 1 in 365) there's a decent chance main and mini could be won in a year by a player.

    However, with DTD's, what are field sizes, 130-150? I don't play them but lets say the chance of winning 1 for a good player is 1 in 80. Whoever wins the first one then has a 1 in 80 chance of winning 2. But then you have to multiply them two together to get the chance for winning all 3. So 1 in 6400 chance someone achieves this in a single DTD.
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  • aussie09aussie09
    edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: A little DTD prop bet.:
    In Response to Re: A little DTD prop bet. : Winning main and mini is much easier though in terms of probability. Every night someone is going to win the main. If they enter the mini as well, then depending on player pool size they'll have a 1 in (the player pool size) so maybe 1 in 400. Less if they're a good player. More if they're not! Given this (it's close to 1 in 365) there's a decent chance main and mini could be won in a year by a player. However, with DTD's, what are field sizes, 130-150? I don't play them but lets say the chance of winning 1 for a good player is 1 in 80. Whoever wins the first one then has a 1 in 80 chance of winning 2. But then you have to multiply them two together to get the chance for winning all 3. So 1 in 6400 chance someone achieves this in a single DTD.
    Posted by F_Ivanovic

    yes, that's correct.  however, this prop bet requires a specified player to win.  therefore the chances are 1 in 80 cubed, or 1 in 512,000.

    then, if the competition is run once a week, there are 52 events.  effectively the chance that a specified player will win all three in one year is 10,000 to 1.

    this in money terms means that for the £100 prop bet, the specified player need only to have risked one penny.





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  • F_IvanovicF_Ivanovic
    edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: A little DTD prop bet.:
    In Response to Re: A little DTD prop bet. : yes, that's correct.  however, this prop bet requires a specified player to win.  therefore the chances are 1 in 80 cubed, or 1 in 512,000. then, if the competition is run once a week, there are 52 events.  effectively the chance that a specified player will win all three in one year is 10,000 to 1. this in money terms means that for the £100 prop bet, the specified player need only to have risked one penny.
    Posted by aussie09
    There's a couple of different prop bets - initial one was a single player, so yeah for hh to win it, it would be 1 in 512,000. (though I'd question the assumption of him being a good player hehe :P ) 

    But later on waller said he's willing to pay out if anyone wins it, that's why my post was showing the probability of any 1 player to win all 3! Which in a year would be ~1 in 123. So yeah, the odds are in his favour :)
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  • aussie09aussie09
    edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: A little DTD prop bet.:
    In Response to Re: A little DTD prop bet. : There's a couple of different prop bets - initial one was a single player, so yeah for hh to win it, it would be 1 in 512,000. (though I'd question the assumption of him being a good player hehe :P )  But later on waller said he's willing to pay out if anyone wins it, that's why my post was showing the probability of any 1 player to win all 3! Which in a year would be ~1 in 123. So yeah, the odds are in his favour :)
    Posted by F_Ivanovic

    let's hope that skybet open a book giving odds at evens.



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  • waller02waller02
    edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: A little DTD prop bet.:
    £50 if anyone, £100 for a TPTer. Good luck all.
    Posted by Matt237
    N1 Matt.

    Would actually love somebody to do it but I just can't see it happening
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  • waller02waller02
    edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: A little DTD prop bet.:
    No joy this week. 1 FT, 1 ITM and one disaster when I bet bet jammed AK on an AA10 4 5.....They'd housed up on river with A5, and I busted soon after that in something like 118th, sigh. Anyone come close tonight?
    Posted by hhyftrftdr
    Another good effort though. Unsurprisingly, I had a shocker!
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  • SlipwaterSlipwater
    edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: A little DTD prop bet.:
    In Response to Re: A little DTD prop bet. : Another good effort though. Unsurprisingly, I had a shocker!
    Posted by waller02
    I think he's shot his load early though.
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  • hhyftrftdrhhyftrftdr
    edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: A little DTD prop bet.:
    In Response to Re: A little DTD prop bet. : I think he's shot his load early though.
    Posted by Slipwater
    See you got off to a cracking start last week.
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  • SlipwaterSlipwater
    edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: A little DTD prop bet.:
    In Response to Re: A little DTD prop bet. : See you got off to a cracking start last week.
    Posted by hhyftrftdr
    ;)

    I'm playing the long game.
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  • hhyftrftdrhhyftrftdr
    edited January 2015
    Rinse and repeat from last week.

    One FT, one ITM (11th) and one where I got absolutely nowhere!
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  • SlykllistSlykllist
    edited January 2015
    I aim to still be in all 3 tournaments after 9.30pm at least once this year.
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  • waller02waller02
    edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: A little DTD prop bet.:
    Rinse and repeat from last week. One FT, one ITM (11th) and one where I got absolutely nowhere!
    Posted by hhyftrftdr
    +1

    Except mine was just shocking again. At least we are both consistent
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  • samantha25samantha25
    edited January 2015
    consistently rubbish in your case Ryan LOL... ;)
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  • waller02waller02
    edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: A little DTD prop bet.:
    consistently rubbish in your case Ryan LOL... ;)
    Posted by samantha25
    I'm hustling.......wait til Feb that's all I'll say. Let Harry think he's the best then pounce, he's such a mug.
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  • samantha25samantha25
    edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: A little DTD prop bet.:
    In Response to Re: A little DTD prop bet. : I'm hustling.......wait til Feb that's all I'll say. Let Harry think he's the best then pounce, he's such a mug.
    Posted by waller02

    We think so alike :)

    I would love you to do it, to see smuggychops face *sniggers*



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  • hhyftrftdrhhyftrftdr
    edited January 2015
    My ears are burning.
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  • samantha25samantha25
    edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: A little DTD prop bet.:
    My ears are burning.
    Posted by hhyftrftdr

    There are some on here that wish it wasn't just limited to your ears :) #fans
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  • hhyftrftdrhhyftrftdr
    edited January 2015
    Worst showing for a long time last night, finished waaaaaay down the table.

    Next Monday be a good one to win all 3 and thus have Outlaws top of the team tree.

    Was getting slightly concerned my record of 2 points was gonna be matched by Haylez but thank he could 'only' muster 5 points. Phew :)
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