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DYM first hand exit (oops) - should I have folded river?
Very poor show to go out of a DYM first level, let alone first hand, but I'm not sure if this was a mistake on my part on the river, or just a cooler. No reads on the villain except that I had never played him before, and I play a lot of these £5.50 DYMs so probably not a reg. I thought very carefully about his range during the hand and especially when facing the river shove. I just thought there were so few 5s or 10s in his range that would call flop as so unlikely he had A5 or A10. So his range is pretty much pairs 66+ and I thought he would take this river line with a lower set as well, hence my call. Never would have put him on 55 calling the flop!
| Player | Action | Cards | Amount | Pot | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slipwater | Small blind | 10.00 | 10.00 | 1990.00 | |
| mixtone | Big blind | 20.00 | 30.00 | 1980.00 | |
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| cowboy11 | Fold | ||||
| The_Snipe | Fold | ||||
| player 1 | Raise | 40.00 | 70.00 | 1960.00 | |
| ladyalbion | Raise | 120.00 | 190.00 | 1880.00 | |
| Slipwater | Fold | ||||
| mixtone | Fold | ||||
| player 1 | Call | 80.00 | 270.00 | 1880.00 | |
| Flop | |||||
| |||||
| player 1 | Check | ||||
| ladyalbion | Bet | 135.00 | 405.00 | 1745.00 | |
| player 1 | Call | 135.00 | 540.00 | 1745.00 | |
| Turn | |||||
| |||||
| player 1 | Check | ||||
| ladyalbion | Bet | 270.00 | 810.00 | 1475.00 | |
| player 1 | Call | 270.00 | 1080.00 | 1475.00 | |
| River | |||||
| |||||
| player 1 | All-in | 1475.00 | 2555.00 | 0.00 | |
| ladyalbion | All-in | 1475.00 | 4030.00 | 0.00 | |
| player 1 | Show |
| |||
| ladyalbion | Show |
| |||
| player 1 | Win | Straight to the 9 | 4030.00 | 4030.00 | |
Comments
However, here we've had pre-flop, flop and turn action. Pre-flop alone reduces the chance of villain having 5's in his range. Then post-flop, villain has called flop + turn bets. It's unlikely villain has called flop with a 5 unless it's specifically A5. Maybe 56 if he has a BDFD too. Tens that call OTF are AT, 9T and 8T. OTT you'd expect 56 to fold, AT and A5 will probably call again and 9T and 8T might call/fold depending on villain.
The looser villain is with which hands he calls OTF and OTT the more other hands villain can have in his range. If he's calling turn with 55 then he definitely has 77 too and might well ship with 77 for value since it's so unlikely Hero has a T or a 5. Also, as he called turn with 55 he will call it with plenty of worse hands that are just a pair by this river. As such, his range on the river becomes weak - and if he's aggressive he might try and make up for that by bluffing too much with 1 pair hands.
Ladyalbion's logic and reasoning in making the call is pretty sound. Being a DYM there's a stronger case for folding. I'm not too sure if a fold is correct or not, it seems pretty close.
As others have said though, we should be betting more on the flop + on the turn. It doesn't have to be a lot more, but when we flop top set we want to be able to get stacks in by the river. If we make it 150-160 OTF and then 350 OTT, we leave ourseleves with just less than a PSB OTR i think which is better than leaving an overbet.
No wonder Dev can win 18 in a row at this level, just lol at the call down