Check for pot control or charge the draws?

craigcu12

You gotta bet flop because there are so many worse hands that call (and so few better hands).  How do you know they're so unlikely to bluff a missed draw? Is this a read on this particular villian? Even if they don't bluff missed draws, that's really a piece of useful information for later streets, we still want to get value from draws and worse made hands now... the info about whether they bluff missed draws or not we can use to decide whether we want to value bet or bluff catch on later streets.

Just think about ranges... when we bet flop how many hands beat us...

77/99/66/79/T8... inlcuding 96s and 58s is pretty optimistic but depends on the villian. Then let's look at what hands we beat that will call...

A9/K9/Q9/J9/T9/89/78/68/57/JT/A8/88/TT/JJ/QQ, any 2 hearts, probably get called 1 street w/ AK/AQ

As you can see, the worse hands that will call farrr outnumber the better hands that call/raise.

Then on turn look at how their range has changed v us.....

So on top of 77/99/66/79/T8 that was ahead on flop, they've now got there with J9/JJ... that's it. We still probably get calls from all 9x, all Jx (which called flop cos it was JhXh), TT, JT, QQ, all the pr + draw combos, all the FDs.

So I'd deffo recommend betting turn too (we can fold to a raise).

River, depends what it is, and what villian is like. On bricks, if you think he'll just checkback all missed draws deffo then I'd probably bet/fold again and try and get 1 more street out of his worse made hands, if he's more prone to bluffing his missed draws here then we can c/c. Grim river cards like Th are just gonna be a checkback/fold if he donks

craigcu12

i seem to be at a stages where i'm almost certain to finish with less than i had to start, the thing i wonder about most is what is more likely to make me winning long term,

do i Ch the turn knowing their is so many draws and two pair combos or should i be charging the draws knowing they'll be so unlikely to bluff a missed draw?

frizzybulu	Small blind		£0.10	£0.10	£36.38
5toneFace	Big blind		£0.20	£0.30	£21.75
	Your hole cards	K K
HAMMER268	Fold
craigcu12	Raise		£0.60	£0.90	£19.40
THEGRID	Fold
dubzs	Fold
frizzybulu	Call		£0.50	£1.40	£35.88
5toneFace	Fold
Flop
		7 9 6
frizzybulu	Check
craigcu12	Bet		£1.05	£2.45	£18.35
frizzybulu	Call		£1.05	£3.50	£34.83
Turn
		J
frizzybulu	Check
craigcu12	?

craigcu12

correction
sorry i put the wrong street it was the decision on the turn that i related my question to.

as for the opponent, the reason i'm thinking he doesn't bluff a missed draw is when he's raised an AK, he'll Ch it on flops such as a raggy Q high board.

F_Ivanovic

In Response to Re: Check for pot control or charge the draws?:

correction sorry i put the wrong street it was the decision on the turn that i related my question to. as for the opponent, the reason i'm thinking he doesn't bluff a missed draw is when he's raised an AK, he'll Ch it on flops such as a raggy Q high board.
Posted by craigcu12

That's really not a good read. I'll often check AK on a Q high board because we're not getting any better to fold and we're not getting too much worse to call. Plus, there's a ton of worse hands I'm going to be betting with - betting with AK as well just means we're c-betting too much so villain won't give us respect.

However, I will be bluffing missed draws a good % of the time on the river.

Lambert180

^^^ As Ivan said, deciding to check AK on Q52r is completely unrelated to how they play missed draws on rivers.

shakinaces

Given that we're in position in this hand, I think I'd be betting somewhere around £2.50 for protection as much as for value.

It's a bit grim if he now chucks in a c/r that could leave us crushed (but likely calling and prob calling any blank rivers depending on sizing / other reads on the player).

But IMO it's better than checking turn and letting oppo get a free card when there a reasonable amount of cards which could be bad for us.

Maybe a case for checking back river depending on how we view the villain... will they pay down 3 streets of value with hands like 9x / 88 / TT / JT on this board?