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Reg in question is probably the best I have come across. Really well balanced and is a huge winner at 100/200nl.
100nl
UTG - 135.78
MP - 34.67
CO - 243.89 (Hero) Qs 10s
BTN - 291.67 (Villain)
SB - 55.00
BB - 101.50
Preflop - 2 Folds, Hero raises to 2.50. Btn raises to 8.50. 2 Folds. Hero calls Pot 18.50
Flop - 3s 7s 10c Hero checks. Btn checks.
Turn - 3s 7s 10c 5d Hero bets 13.50. Btn calls. Pot 45.50
River - 3s 7s 10c 5d 5s Hero bets 38.50. Btn raises to 269.67 all in.
Hero?!?!
Villain has been 3-betting me quite a lot being deep and ip. Will be balanced enough to check some Axss on the flop I think. Feel like I'm folding way to much if I fold here but in my experience regs just don't bluff nearly enough in these spots especially 250bb deep.
Thought?
0 ·
Comments
Given we can have FH's I don't think we're folding too much if we fold here (esp since it's going to be such a rare spot) but I mean we have a decent bluff-catcher. Agree that regs don't bluff too much here but you said you rate him at one of the best at this level and I think enough of the time he has bare As and just overbet jams thinking unless we have a FH he's going to get it through.
I'm not sure but I think he could potentially jam a nut flush knowing he's not repping many value combos? I pretty much thought the same as you that his bluffs are basically gonna be bare As turned into a bluff but at what frequency he rips these in on the river I'm not sure...
Can you remember any hands where he's checked back nut flush draw or sets? Obv stack size in them hands is important. Plus the opponent he was facing. I mean I generally don't slow play nut hand or draws ever because it's so rare to face an opponent who will try and use that fact to exploit me. (eg. They'll overbet turn and/or river or c/r and bet big knowing we're capped) - In this hand for example, suppose a flush hits the turn. If you have any high spade at all, you can donk 1.5x pot and just put villain in a horrible spot where he has to over-fold. Obv you will do the same with some flushes too.) And you can again bet big OTR.
But most opponents just aren't making such plays, so FPS (or balanced play) is largely over-rated. OK, he might get a call from you here because his line looks FOS - but he could very easily get a fold from you and lost a ton of value. Whereas had he bet flop with his NFD you'd definitely give him at least 3-streets of value when a flush hits. In other words, the hands he's trying to get hero'd by now would have got him plenty of value had he not slow-played.
I do recall a hand a few weeks ago where as the pfa this villain c/c flop, turn and c/jam river oop with a NFD on the flop. River completed the flush and I think he stacked 2pr. Remember another a couple of times being surprised at some of the hands this villain has got to showdown with. I wouldn't say this guy plays unorthodox just likes to play strong hands differently sometimes to keep people guessing.
Agree with your point about losing value potentially against my hand here. Against my overall range though if he perceives that I will overbluff flush runouts etc than he will gain a ton of value in those spots where I may just c/f flop otherwise. I think from a strategy point of view it is important to be able to have some flushes here as the villain after checking the flop otherwise you can get run over by decent players.
On point that may be of use is that I think villain views me as one of the better 100nl regs. I assume he would expect me some % of the time bet turn/river here to try and take him off it with air.