should i have called the turn or just folded i am thinking they have an over pair any help would be

Kerrnal

mraceguy	Small blind		300.00	300.00	9699.00
Salazzzar	Big blind		600.00	900.00	4572.00
	Your hole cards	10 A
Tings89	Raise		1200.00	2100.00	18054.50
Kerrnal	Call		1200.00	3300.00	12922.50
TheDart	Fold
mraceguy	Fold
Salazzzar	Fold
Flop
		10 2 3
Tings89	Bet		1800.00	5100.00	16254.50
Kerrnal	Call		1800.00	6900.00	11122.50
Turn
		8
Tings89	Bet		3000.00	9900.00	13254.50
Kerrnal	Call		3000.00	12900.00	8122.50
River
		J
Tings89	Bet		12900.00	25800.00	354.50
Kerrnal	Fold
Tings89	Muck
Tings89	Win		12900.00		13254.50
Tings89	Return		12900.00	0.00	26154.50

F_Ivanovic

yeah i mean you need to make your decision OTT as to whether to shove/fold. If you just flat w/this hand it would be because you think villain is bluffing too much OTR and you should be willing to call regardless of the river card.

jordz16

You have 20bbs? surely gotta be 3betting, shoving or folding, i think just calling here will be a huge leak over time, because as this hand proved you can hit your dream flop and still end up losing more chips and folding, plus he has you out chipped so knows he can bully you off most flops and turns anyway.. 3bet him to 3k if he folds, happy days! if he calls then you can play the hand in position with the betting lead, and if he shoves then you know 90% of the time you are behind so you can fold and save chips.

Lambert180

I think flatting pre is fine/standard. You'll be in dreadful shape if you 3bet/GII v UTG most of the time, and 3b/fold such a strong hand would also be bad. Think flat pre is the only option although folding is better than 3b/call or 3b/fold.

I think you played it perfect tbh, flop is an easy flat, turn we can GII but flatting is also fine, we got position and little chance of being outdrawn when we're ahead. River is a fold.

Wp, nh imo

CraigSG1

I'm with Lambert. I think its too strong to fold but not strong enough to 3 bet/GII and 3 bet folding from your stack is probably going to be a leak.

I dont think you can do anything else but call as board so dry and being OOP I dont think the villian is going to three barrel bluff especially as you have called him three times. A lot of the times he will check his 10x hands, PPs, hands that picked up a SD/gutshot and bluffs on the river.

He has to have QQ+ or a set.

jordz16

I think If you are going to play your hand deceptively and just call pre (which id never recommend mid/late stages) then surely if you hit top top you have to be looking to get it in? its a dream flop/dream turn and if you arent planning to get it in on this board then what board are you hoping to get it in on? i understand the way its played it feels like he has a strong hand but if you have any intention of folding surely you would rather 3 bet pre to save yourself chips in the long run?

personally i think 18/25bbs is the most awkward stacksize to play with, and you want to make it easier for yourself, if you 3 bet pre then you can fold to a shove fairly cheaply when its vv unlikely you are being bluffed, you will fold out most small fairs ax and kx hands, and generally get calls from hands like aq, aj, 66-99 kqss etc and they are hands you can bet off most flops as you will be repping the bigger hand. 

if you had 30bbs and the original raiser is a poor player id definitely call as you want to be seeing the flop as cheap as possible, knowing you can out play him.

with 20bbs we know we are potentially playing for stacks every pot, and you hit a flop which is in the top 5% of flops you can hit for your hand and you fold? it makes no sense imo if you are not going to get your stack in on a 10high board then personally id fold it pre and save yourself chips in the long term.

jordz16

In Response to Re: should i have called the turn or just folded i am thinking they have an over pair any help would be welcome;):

I'm with Lambert. I think its too strong to fold but not strong enough to 3 bet/GII and 3 bet folding from your stack is probably going to be a leak. I dont think you can do anything else but call as board so dry and being OOP I dont think the villian is going to three barrel bluff especially as you have called him three times. A lot of the times he will check his 10x hands, PPs, hands that picked up a SD/gutshot and bluffs on the river. He has to have QQ+ or a set.
Posted by CraigSG1

We have no idea what he has as we havent put him to the test once?, hes going to c bet most boards with any hand like he did, he will also know we cant be that strong as we didnt rr pre, so betting the turn with any hand makes sense as well as it will now fold out most mid pairs, and gut shots hands even possibly a weak 10... and then when an overcard to the board hits the river he will be fully aware that any large bet will fold out all 10s except 10j, and any mid pairs still hanging about,. 

when you play a strong hand like a 10 in a weak way then you have to be prepared to call it down knowing how weak you look

Lambert180

I disagree with a few points above.

1) As a general rule, people very rarely just open UTG then fire off 3 barrels as a bluff, especially from a 20bb stack, and once we call 2 streets and now only have 8k left in a 12k pot it's very unlikely we'll have many hands that fold so I think his range is probably pretty much 100% value. I reckon a fair range for him by the river is  along the lines of AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 88, JTs, and probably 22/33.

2) I'm not sure I count flatting pre as playing it deceptively, it's not like we've got AA, we've got a mid strength suited Ax against what is likely a relatively strong opening range so we're just trying to keep the pot under control and keep his range as wide as poss. But deceptive or not, that doesn't mean cos we hit TPTK we are married to it no matter what. It makes no sense to raise flop cos its so dry and we mostly just fold out worse and GII v better, turn we can potentially jam cos he's pretty committed now with his Tx hands but, I think calling flop and turn is fine, I think calling river is deffo gonna be a losing play long term.

Sure, it sucks that we've committed so much but we can't use that as an excuse to make bad calls... ranges change on every street, so on the turn he's still firing all his KT, QT, JT maybe even 99, but on that river he's never shoving the 1pr hands for value or as a bluff imo (and JT beats us now) so our hand has turned into a bluff catcher, and bluff catchers are pretty bad when villian has next to no bluffs in his range.

3) We don't have to be weak at all here. It's a dry flop so we'll be flatting with all TPs and all sets, likewise on the turn. I don't think we should raise this flop and probably not turn with any bluffs or any value hands so we've played it as weakly as we'd play the nuts. I don't think your average villian is bluffing but as rivered overcards go, the jack is pretty much the nut worst one to try and bluff, how many Jx hands is he gonna have that have fired 2 barrels he can try and rep, the only ones I can see are ones that genuinely have us beat anyway JT/JJ... would be optimistic to assume he's fired x2 with AJ imo.

jordz16

you wount be surprised that i disagree, you have to remember we are 5 handed here, even 6 handed a 10suited is a big hand but 5 handed it becomes even stronger, when you are 5 handed with 30bbs i think you will be opening any playable hand (especially when there are 20bb stacks to act after you as they are always the best stacks to play against post flop), from 78suited to rag aces like a3 suited and of course premiums etc, and even though im sure you have a far better grasp of the maths than me, i just believe that taking the betting lead is such a huge! advantage in the mid/late stages of tournaments, if this was the early stages it would be fine, but later on you have gotta be giving yourself position and betting lead whenever you can get away from it, the way the hand plays out is pointless in this matter as we have no idea of any history so its just guess work....

it is a matter of opinion thats very true but i just think winning mtts is about taking any edge you can get and putting maximum pressure on those around you, by playing these hands passively you have to have an exceptional post flop game.

one thing i do agree on is that you shouldnt ever call off a hand because you feel you have to even when you know your behind, but i dont think he is just repping super strong hands, if i had a set i certainly wouldnt be betting 3 streets id nearly always be betting flop as standard then checking the turn (as you would with tons of hands) knowing i can get worse hands to bet for value and also allow myself to be bluffed, generally id feel his range is made up of overpairs, and bluffs.

its certainly great how different players see different situations as poloar opposites though and reading your opinion does intrigue me a lot, guess thats why poker is such a great game

F_Ivanovic

I disagree with Jordz about 3b/folding pre but I agree with him on the fact that if we're folding post-flop at any point we should just be folding pre because obviously his PF range must be really tight for us to be wanting to fold on this board.

As I said in my original post, turn should be a jam and the only reason NOT to jam the turn would be that villain is capable of 3-barrel bluffing. If he's not, then it makes no sense to just flat the turn. Either we're ahead enough vs his range and should jam for value + protection or we're not ahead enough and should fold (but then if we're not ahead enough we should have just folded pre) If we just flat and villain's never bluffing river then we're basically giving villain free equity to draw to gutshots or OE/overcards and potentially letting him save himself some chips with Tx hands and worse.

Kerrnal

my thoughts looking back on the hand were that is that i should have shoved the turn or folded not just called as it is just leaking chips i had a feeling on the flop that he had qq jj 10 10 aa kk should have folded on the flop really. from what everyone is saying i should have shhoved the turn or fold pre as i hit the dream flop for at?

F_Ivanovic

yeah I mean if your worried on the flop about JJ-AA then you should be folding pre.

MattBates

It's great doing analysis on the hand but we need to start off and get some kind of read on our opponent and what we feel our opponents view on us is. 

thejudge10

 I imagine the opponent on this occasion was loving life,was never put under any sort of pressure,personally i would defo re raise the flop,then either fold or call to a shove.Before you call ask yourself,what is the turn bet going to be,then your decisions become easier.

 

HENDRIK62

just wanted to say I find this thread an excellent read and a big thank you to all the contributors.

hhyftrftdr

In Response to Re: should i have called the turn or just folded i am thinking they have an over pair any help would be welcome;):

It's great doing analysis on the hand but we need to start off and get some kind of read on our opponent and what we feel our opponents view on us is. 
Posted by MattBates

This.

What might look a snap fold in vacuum could be a snap call with some more information we're not privy to.

As a one off hand with no reads/history, probably bin the turn. Reluctantly give him credit for not barrelling worse.

Kerrnal

my thoughts are looking back is that he was probably holding an over pair. i possible should have 3 bet but i tend to play more passive and evauluate things on the flop, which in this case i didnt do i just snap called the turn and didnt really think. so for future maybe 3 bet and make the opponent think and put pressure on them or if i hit the flop what do  think the villains range is and is he capable of 3 barrel bluffing.