All Categories› Poker› Poker Chat

You need to be logged in to your Sky Poker account above to post discussions and comments.

You might need to refresh your page afterwards.

Sky Poker forums will be temporarily unavailable from 11pm Wednesday July 25th.
Sky Poker Forums is upgrading its look! Stay tuned for the big reveal!

unlucky or bad beat

chillingchilling
edited February 2015 in Poker Chat
What are the odds of one of two players with pocket aces hitting a flush
· Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

Comments

  • hhyftrftdrhhyftrftdr
    edited February 2015
    The odds are so chilling, you're better off not knowing.
    · Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
  • aussie09aussie09
    edited February 2015


    less than 15/1... edit ... lower  than 31/1... second edit 22/1



     
    · Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
  • FortunatusFortunatus
    edited February 2015
    Any aces vs aces is a 95.65% chance of being a split pot, so the odds of either hand winning outright (which can only be achieved with a flush), is 2.17%.

    Pretty chilling :)
    · Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
  • aussie09aussie09
    edited February 2015


    also, the chance that both players hit a flush is 255/1



     
    · Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
  • GaryQQQGaryQQQ
    edited February 2015
    Each player has 2.17% chance of making a flush. That's the same as a 45/1 shot.

    In the long run this will be a chop 22 out of every 23 times, one or other of the players will scoop the pot the other 1 out of 23.

    To put this in perspective rolling tow sixes from a pair of dices will only happen 1 in every 36 attempts, so aces beating aces in poker is no big deal really.
    · Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
  • FortunatusFortunatus
    edited February 2015
    In Response to Re: unlucky or bad beat:
    also, the chance that both players hit a flush is 255/1  
    Posted by aussie09

    Okay, that's puzzling me.

    Do you mean that the board comes down all the same suit, so both players make a flush, but one of them will have the nut flush ?
    · Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
  • GaryQQQGaryQQQ
    edited February 2015

    A highly unlikely scenario is a chop with both players playing a straight flush on the board.

    Sometimes a royal flush will beat the other players king-high straight flush on the board. An extremely unlikely event as it requires the run-out to be one of four combos of 9TJQK suited, but I bet it's happened somewhere.

    · Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
  • aussie09aussie09
    edited February 2015
    In Response to Re: unlucky or bad beat:
    In Response to Re: unlucky or bad beat : Okay, that's puzzling me. Do you mean that the board comes down all the same suit, so both players make a flush, but one of them will have the nut flush ?
    Posted by Fortunatus

    yes. 


    you know that it nothing more than being a little bit careful about the question being asked.  the OP question sounds as though the answer must be something astrnomical but we are given aces for both players.


     
    · Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
  • shakinacesshakinaces
    edited February 2015
    In Response to Re: unlucky or bad beat:
    Each player has 2.17% chance of making a flush. That's the same as a 45/1 shot. In the long run this will be a chop 22 out of every 23 times, one or other of the players will scoop the pot the other 1 out of 23. To put this in perspective rolling tow sixes from a pair of dices will only happen 1 in every 36 attempts, so aces beating aces in poker is no big deal really.
    Posted by GaryQQQ
    So effectively losing a hand AA vs AA all in pre is the same (give or take) as getting it all in on the turn and oppo hits their 'miracle' 1-outer?

    Good stat of the day, posters.
    · Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
  • FortunatusFortunatus
    edited February 2015
    Wouldn't the odds of a flush board with 2 players holding aces be

    12/48 * 11/47 * 10/46 * 9/45 * 8/46, then multiplied by 4 to cover any suit.

    Which is 540/1, or am I competely overthinking this ?
    · Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
  • aussie09aussie09
    edited February 2015
    In Response to Re: unlucky or bad beat:
    Wouldn't the odds of a flush board with 2 players holding aces be 12/48 * 11/47 * 10/46 * 9/45 * 8/46, then multiplied by 4 to cover any suit. Which is 540/1, or am I competely overthinking this ?
    Posted by Fortunatus

    whatever the first card suit, the odds that the next card is the same suit is roughly 1 in 4.  and so on.  four cards at i in 4 is 1 in 256 or 255/1




     
    · Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
  • aussie09aussie09
    edited February 2015


    more accurately,..

    11/46  x   10/45   x   9/44   x   8/43

    · Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
  • FortunatusFortunatus
    edited February 2015
    In Response to Re: unlucky or bad beat:
    more accurately,.. 11/46  x   10/45   x   9/44   x   8/43
    Posted by aussie09

    Isn't that 495/1 ?
    · Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
  • aussie09aussie09
    edited February 2015


    yes.  493/1. 

    you get a tick for your answer being quite close but lose points for your workings.  whereas i get good marks for my workings with a note written in red biro saying that i must pay more attention to detail.





    · Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
  • FortunatusFortunatus
    edited February 2015
    In Response to Re: unlucky or bad beat:
    yes.  493/1.  you get a tick for your answer being quite close but lose points for your workings.  whereas i get good marks for my workings with a note written in red biro saying that i must pay more attention to detail.
    Posted by aussie09

    Why 11/46 after the first community card ?
    · Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
Sign In or Register to comment.