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Conspiracy Theories

achillachill
edited January 2010 in Area 51
The only conspiracy theory i have anytime for is the one about new members/players. That honeymoon period after they deposit some real cash for the first time where they can do no wrong because if they get hammered and lose their br straight off they would think i'm not very good at this,leave and you have lose their custom forever.

The reason why i think this holds a little more water than other theories is my own experiences on this and other poker sites where I have increased my original deposit by 4/5 times before hitting the wall and suddenly finding your not playing any differently but your losing the coin flips and the other guy is hitting the one card he needs and before you know it your br is going down just as quickly as it went up.

I blew my entire br on pokerroom like that but had caught the bug by then so i deposited again where as if i had lost straight off would never have gone back.   

When i joined here i turned £20 into £150 (including £25 bonus) in the first month, i was playing like god, won all the 50/50 races, if i went fishing i was always catching but then hit that wall again and £150 became £100 very quickly so i withdrew the full amount and was using up my points in the freerolls before moving on to another site i had opened an account with.

It was only the fact this forum is so good, the site uses English money and i started to use skybet that i'm still here.

Did deposit again, £20 and played 8 £5 dym straight off, cashed in the first six but lose in 7 and 8. haha. Draw your own conclusions.

This was back in august/september, i'm still here and happy online but this is one theory that i find is more true than most.

Don't know if i'm bored or just have'nt posted in a long time but felt the urge.

Be lucky

achill    
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Comments

  • philmenowphilmenow
    edited January 2010
    In Response to Conspiracy Theories:
    The only conspiracy theory i have anytime for is the one about new members/players. That honeymoon period after they deposit some real cash for the first time where they can do no wrong because if they get hammered and lose their br straight off they would think i'm not very good at this,leave and you have lose their custom forever. The reason why i think this holds a little more water than other theories is my own experiences on this and other poker sites where I have increased my original deposit by 4/5 times before hitting the wall and suddenly finding your not playing any differently but your losing the coin flips and the other guy is hitting the one card he needs and before you know it your br is going down just as quickly as it went up. I blew my entire br on pokerroom like that but had caught the bug by then so i deposited again where as if i had lost straight off would never have gone back.    When i joined here i turned £20 into £150 (including £25 bonus) in the first month, i was playing like god, won all the 50/50 races, if i went fishing i was always catching but then hit that wall again and £150 became £100 very quickly so i withdrew the full amount and was using up my points in the freerolls before moving on to another site i had opened an account with. It was only the fact this forum is so good, the site uses English money and i started to use skybet that i'm still here. Did deposit again, £20 and played 8 £5 dym straight off, cashed in the first six but lose in 7 and 8. haha. Draw your own conclusions. This was back in august/september, i'm still here and happy online but this is one theory that i find is more true than most. Don't know if i'm bored or just have'nt posted in a long time but felt the urge. Be lucky achill    
    Posted by achill[/QUOT

    think iv had that same scenario at all the poker sites iv played,and like you say,makes alot of sense 2 keep the newbies interested..once addicted (to anything)its quite hard 2 be logical and realise you either aint no good at poker or its just this VARIANCE thingy...pokerroom,fs,that place stunk of fiddle,but the community spirit was gr8.when it changed over(to whatever it became) i vowed never 2 go back,and i havent...when people say,why would any poker site want 2 fiddle or rig anything,while theyr making lots of money,it makes u wonder,WHY?....but then why would harold shipman train 2 be a doctor and then start killing people..WHY?phaps bcoz he thought,he wouldnt get caught,because it seems so unlikely that a doctor would do it...thats why conspiracy theories exist...good post ,achill
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  • loonytoonsloonytoons
    edited January 2010
    Lets look at this logically, you go on a new site and win for the 1st  month, you stay on that site and then you lose it, you deposit more money and the same happens again. For every one of you that this is happening to there are countless out there that deposit and lose, deposit and lose, and don't win. There are also countless that deposit and win, win, win. Maybe you should look at your personal play, are you being more aggressive ( take more gambles) with a larger bankroll, and when you reload and have a smaller bankroll, you play tighter, or do you move up to higher cost buy - ins, or are you just no good!!
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  • philmenowphilmenow
    edited January 2010
    In Response to Re: Conspiracy Theories:
    Lets look at this logically, you go on a new site and win for the 1st  month, you stay on that site and then you lose it, you deposit more money and the same happens again. For every one of you that this is happening to there are countless out there that deposit and lose, deposit and lose, and don't win. There are also countless that deposit and win, win, win. Maybe you should look at your personal play, are you being more aggressive ( take more gambles) with a larger bankroll, and when you reload and have a smaller bankroll, you play tighter, or do you move up to higher cost buy - ins, or are you just no good!!
    Posted by loonytoons
    that is a possible,although i tend not 2 associate being more aggressive with taking more gambles,and if u associate being more aggressive with gambling more,then phaps u should take a look at ur play..2 me being more aggressive means i bet my hands,bet when i hit and if im gonna bluff i bet,bet,bet...just find it funny that u can b playin a newbie and they hit even with the most ridiculous hands,over and over,and no matter how well u play the hand(ABC poker),and how badly they play the hand(donkey poker),they always seem 2 'get lukky',that VARIANCE is a funny thing,hows it know that sum1 is new 2 a site???
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  • loonytoonsloonytoons
    edited January 2010
    In Response to Re: Conspiracy Theories:
    In Response to Re: Conspiracy Theories : that is a possible,although i tend not 2 associate being more aggressive with taking more gambles,and if u associate being more aggressive with gambling more,then phaps u should take a look at ur play..2 me being more aggressive means i bet my hands,bet when i hit and if im gonna bluff i bet,bet,bet...just find it funny that u can b playin a newbie and they hit even with the most ridiculous hands,over and over,and no matter how well u play the hand(ABC poker),and how badly they play the hand(donkey poker),they always seem 2 'get lukky',that VARIANCE is a funny thing,hows it know that sum1 is new 2 a site???
    Posted by philmenow
    I did, it happened to me, i got my bankroll up, then i lost most of it, i have now got it back up, and i thought i was playing more loosely and taking gambles, like if it was 50/50 id go for it, now i think more about it, also the point about levels, i went too high on the cash tables , won a couple then lost a load (playing outside bankroll) but i dont think its to do with conspiracies, and if players do, they are in for a hard knock later on - if they are doing so bad lately, something has to change and it aint the software!!
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  • philmenowphilmenow
    edited January 2010
    In Response to Re: Conspiracy Theories:
     Sorry to disprove your theory but I joined Sky November last year and lost first deposit second and third and only now win the occasional game. I do not make a profit or expect to I play for enjoyment and that has a price.  If your theory was true however bad my play I would have won. Not So  this is a game of skill and Luck. ask anyone. Ask TK tho he must be fed up repeating over and over time and again SKY is not rigged. ! Annie x  
    Posted by logdon
    conspiracies always involve more than 1 person,and with all due respect to TK,if he was in on it ,he wouldnt tell..and if he wasnt in on it ,he wouldnt know....
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  • philmenowphilmenow
    edited January 2010
    In Response to Re: Conspiracy Theories:
    In Response to Re: Conspiracy Theories : I did, it happened to me, i got my bankroll up, then i lost most of it, i have now got it back up, and i thought i was playing more loosely and taking gambles, like if it was 50/50 id go for it, now i think more about it, also the point about levels, i went too high on the cash tables , won a couple then lost a load (playing outside bankroll) but i dont think its to do with conspiracies, and if players do, they are in for a hard knock later on - if they are doing so bad lately, something has to change and it aint the software!!
    Posted by loonytoons
    fair point,..myself,im probably not nearly as aggressive as i should be,im also a gambler in life,however its not often that i really gamble at the poker table...i also realised early on that i should be playing at a higher level(to remove some of the 'donkey effect'),but alas, my bankroll dictates the level i play...(rock bottom at mo)..to be honest id like 2 believe that there is no conspiracy here or anywhere else. ...'cept maybe the 9/11 one.. these points make  interesting reading,and keep the typing finger well oiled...
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  • loonytoonsloonytoons
    edited January 2010
    The only way to fraudulantly cheat without relying on other conspirators would be if maybe :-

    1. You could see other players monitors and view there cards in real time.
    2. You had access to sky software programmes and could view cards in real time.

    But how likely is that, it must be at least 100/1 against

    Was wondering, does the programme hand out random cards just before each hand is played, or are the random hands pre determined ie is random hand number 2.5 billion in the programme already and waiting to be dealt, or is it non existent in any shape or form until the event?? If it was in existence, possibly someone with the technical knowhow could gain access to the card order of the said hand??


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  • philmenowphilmenow
    edited January 2010
    In Response to Re: Conspiracy Theories:
    The only way to fraudulantly cheat without relying on other conspirators would be if maybe :- 1. You could see other players monitors and view there cards in real time. 2. You had access to sky software programmes and could view cards in real time. But how likely is that, it must be at least 100/1 against Was wondering, does the programme hand out random cards just before each hand is played, or are the random hands pre determined ie is random hand number 2.5 billion in the programme already and waiting to be dealt, or is it non existent in any shape or form until the event?? If it was in existence, possibly someone with the technical knowhow could gain access to the card order of the said hand??
    Posted by loonytoons
    regarding your last point,its long,but worth a read..and i think theyv changed the RNG's now,hopefully
    http://www.cigital.com/papers/download/developer_gambling.php
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  • ImafishImafish
    edited January 2010
    I reckon that JFK was shot by the same secret service agent who took out Princess Di on the orders of the Queen before being flown in a UFO to a location which the american government doesn't officially confirm exists but was also where they gave authority for 9/11 to take place so they could have an excuse to invade Iraq.
       I also believe that all internet poker is fixed.
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  • AIRWALKERAIRWALKER
    edited January 2010
    In Response to Re: Conspiracy Theories:
    I do not make a profit or expect to I play for enjoyment and that has a price.  If your theory was true however bad my play I would have won.  
    Posted by logdon
    Very true. This is me all over. Sometimes my bankroll lasts for weeks and other times it runs out quickly, but all in all for the hours and hours of enjoyment i have out of it it is an absolute bargain.
     
    I lost quite a bit at first while gaining basic skills like having patience and folding a lot more regularly and trying not to chase cards etc. Once i had grasped a few good basic habits and found out what kind of games i was bad at and good at i started winning money more regularly.
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  • philmenowphilmenow
    edited January 2010
    In Response to Re: Conspiracy Theories:
    I reckon that JFK was shot by the same secret service agent who took out Princess Di on the orders of the Queen before being flown in a UFO to a location which the american government doesn't officially confirm exists but was also where they gave authority for 9/11 to take place so they could have an excuse to invade Iraq.    I also believe that all internet poker is fixed.
    Posted by Imafish
    sounds unbelievable,evry1 knows theres no such thing as the 'secret' service.
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  • Seagull158Seagull158
    edited January 2010
    In Response to Re: Conspiracy Theories:
    The only way to fraudulantly cheat without relying on other conspirators would be if maybe :- 1. You could see other players monitors and view there cards in real time. 2. You had access to sky software programmes and could view cards in real time. But how likely is that, it must be at least 100/1 against Was wondering, does the programme hand out random cards just before each hand is played, or are the random hands pre determined ie is random hand number 2.5 billion in the programme already and waiting to be dealt, or is it non existent in any shape or form until the event?? If it was in existence, possibly someone with the technical knowhow could gain access to the card order of the said hand??
    Posted by loonytoons
    The deal is randomly generated before the first card is dealt and is fixed for the rest of that hand, exactly like live poker (except for burn cards, which are not used online). There is an explanation of the process on another thread in Area 51 and also some links to very detailed explanations of how random number generators work.
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  • loonytoonsloonytoons
    edited January 2010
    In Response to Re: Conspiracy Theories:
    In Response to Re: Conspiracy Theories : The deal is randomly generated before the first card is dealt and is fixed for the rest of that hand, exactly like live poker (except for burn cards, which are not used online). There is an explanation of the process on another thread in Area 51 and also some links to very detailed explanations of how random number generators work.
    Posted by Seagull158

    so you saying its fixed then, just the first card is random ?
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  • Seagull158Seagull158
    edited January 2010
    In Response to Re: Conspiracy Theories:
    In Response to Re: Conspiracy Theories : so you saying its fixed then, just the first card is random ?
    Posted by loonytoons
    Its all fixed. Every deal is fixed. The random bit is which deal is being used!!!
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  • loonytoonsloonytoons
    edited January 2010
    In Response to Re: Conspiracy Theories:
    In Response to Re: Conspiracy Theories : Its all fixed. Every deal is fixed. The random bit is which deal is being used!!!
    Posted by Seagull158
    but how long before the deal is it randomised - just before or ages ago, i mean are there thousands of random hands sitting there waiting to be dealt, or are they non existant until the time comes to deal?
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  • AIRWALKERAIRWALKER
    edited January 2010
    In Response to Re: Conspiracy Theories:
    In Response to Re: Conspiracy Theories : but how long before the deal is it randomised - just before or ages ago, i mean are there thousands of random hands sitting there waiting to be dealt, or are they non existent until the time comes to deal?
    Posted by loonytoons
    I think you might be getting Seagull wrong here. If you shuffle a proper deck of cards then start dealing, the winning hand has already been decided (although the betting and who is left in at the end of the hand is set by us)

    I could be wrong but this is what i think he is saying. Are you just seeing the word 'FIXED' and flipping out like a select few do at every opportunity on this forum??

    Have not seen Seagull agreeing with fix allegations before and i don't think he is doing it now.

    Peace.
    Airwalker. 
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  • BADBOY985BADBOY985
    edited January 2010
    HI PHIL HERES A CASE FOR YOUR CONSPIRICY ABOUT NEW PLAYERS, MY WIFE KNOWS THE BASICS OF POKER I TAUGHT HER A COUPLE OF YEARS BACK. HER FIRM SHUTS DOWN FOR TWO WEEKS AT XMAS AND AS I WORK IN RETAIL I HAVE TO WORK A LOT. SHES BORED SO ONE DAY  SHE SET UP AN ACCOUNT WITH £10 IN. SHE ONLY PLAYS 30p/60p DYMS BUT WITHIN A WEEK SHES TURNED IT INTO £15 SHE EVEN WON A £3 OMAHA DYM AND SHE DIDNT EVEN KNOW THE RULES.  
    IM PATTING MYSELF ON THE BACK FOR TEACHING HER WELL WHEN AFTER A WEEK OF PLAYING SHE ASKS ME TWO QUESTIONS 

    1 IS A STRAIGHT BETTER THAN 2 PAIR

    2 HOW MANY OF THE SAME DO I NEED FOR A FLUSH.

    HAVING SAID THAT A MONTH AND ABOUT 150 GAMES LATER SHE STILL HASNT FOUND THE RAISE BUTTON BUT IS STILL ONLY 80p DOWN!
     
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  • philmenowphilmenow
    edited January 2010
    In Response to Re: Conspiracy Theories:
    HI PHIL HERES A CASE FOR YOUR CONSPIRICY ABOUT NEW PLAYERS, MY WIFE KNOWS THE BASICS OF POKER I TAUGHT HER A COUPLE OF YEARS BACK. HER FIRM SHUTS DOWN FOR TWO WEEKS AT XMAS AND AS I WORK IN RETAIL I HAVE TO WORK A LOT. SHES BORED SO ONE DAY  SHE SET UP AN ACCOUNT WITH £10 IN. SHE ONLY PLAYS 30p/60p DYMS BUT WITHIN A WEEK SHES TURNED IT INTO £15 SHE EVEN WON A £3 OMAHA DYM AND SHE DIDNT EVEN KNOW THE RULES.   IM PATTING MYSELF ON THE BACK FOR TEACHING HER WELL WHEN AFTER A WEEK OF PLAYING SHE ASKS ME TWO QUESTIONS  1 IS A STRAIGHT BETTER THAN 2 PAIR 2 HOW MANY OF THE SAME DO I NEED FOR A FLUSH. HAVING SAID THAT A MONTH AND ABOUT 150 GAMES LATER SHE STILL HASNT FOUND THE RAISE BUTTON BUT IS STILL ONLY 80p DOWN!  
    Posted by BADBOY985
    badboy,glad 2 hear it m8.i wasnt the original poster, but conspiracy theories intrigue me,and im glad 2 know im not the only 1 noticing these things..cant really explain ur wifeys good luck,maybe shes incredibly lucky(get those lotto numbers on qwikk,mrs badboy).VARIANCE is bound to be mentioned,and therefore she'll end up losing some/all of it...there is definitely more skill at the higher levels(evry1 knows the hand values)and maybe wifeys been playin at tables where the other players think their ace high beats her 2 pairs...iv often thought about playin the rubbish hands and mukking all 'the premium' hands(taking away,the i expect 2 win coz iv got AA syndrome)....good lukk 2 ur wife and urself...
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  • philmenowphilmenow
    edited January 2010
    In Response to Re: Conspiracy Theories:
    In Response to Re: Conspiracy Theories : but how long before the deal is it randomised - just before or ages ago, i mean are there thousands of random hands sitting there waiting to be dealt, or are they non existant until the time comes to deal?
    Posted by loonytoons
    as there are only a certain amount of random hands from 1 deck of cards(cant remember the exact number),then all random hands are already pre-determined(you couldnt have all the random hands possible from 1 deck +1more),therefore these random hands must have been randomised b4 the event and are just floating about in a microchip waiting 2 be given a point in time 2 start appearing(not unlike the 'big bang' theory),finding out in which order the randomness will come out is the hard bit...you just got 2 remember that at an online poker site randomness favours the higher value cards..
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  • TheAAcesTheAAces
    edited January 2010
    In Response to Re: Conspiracy Theories:
    I reckon that JFK was shot by the same secret service agent who took out Princess Di on the orders of the Queen before being flown in a UFO to a location which the american government doesn't officially confirm exists but was also where they gave authority for 9/11 to take place so they could have an excuse to invade Iraq.    I also believe that all internet poker is fixed.
    Posted by Imafish
    The question you have got to ask yourself is "Did the Twin Towers actually exist?"
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  • MereNoviceMereNovice
    edited January 2010
    In Response to Re: Conspiracy Theories:
    In Response to Re: Conspiracy Theories : as there are only a certain amount of random hands from 1 deck of cards(cant remember the exact number),then all random hands are already pre-determined(you couldnt have all the random hands possible from 1 deck +1more),therefore these random hands must have been randomised b4 the event and are just floating about in a microchip waiting 2 be given a point in time 2 start appearing(not unlike the 'big bang' theory),finding out in which order the randomness will come out is the hard bit...you just got 2 remember that at an online poker site randomness favours the higher value cards..
    Posted by philmenow
    There are 52! (52 factorial) possible decks that may be dealt.
    52! = 52 * 51 * 50 .... * 4 * 3 * 2 * 1 which gives a huge number (effectively an 8 with 67 zeroes after it).
    Each deck is equally likely, i.e. the deal is totally RANDOM.
    Randomness does not favour ANY value cards - it is RANDOM.

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  • philmenowphilmenow
    edited January 2010
    In Response to Re: Conspiracy Theories:
    In Response to Re: Conspiracy Theories : There are 52! (52 factorial) possible decks that may be dealt. 52! = 52 * 51 * 50 .... * 4 * 3 * 2 * 1 which gives a huge number (effectively an 8 with 67 zeroes after it). Each deck is equally likely , i.e. the deal is totally RANDOM . Randomness does not favour ANY value cards - it is RANDOM .
    Posted by MereNovice
    thats it,couldnt remember if it was 66 or 67 zeros.but like i said in another post ,the higher value cards,in online poker,are slighty lighter and no matter how well theyr 'shuffled' they nearly always end up near the top..
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  • MereNoviceMereNovice
    edited January 2010
    Apologies, I missed the humour of your post.  :-)
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  • philmenowphilmenow
    edited January 2010
    In Response to Re: Conspiracy Theories:
    Apologies, I missed the humour of your post.  :-)
    Posted by MereNovice
    thats quite ok,it WAS very easy 2 miss..
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  • Seagull158Seagull158
    edited January 2010
    In Response to Re: Conspiracy Theories:
    In Response to Re: Conspiracy Theories : I think you might be getting Seagull wrong here. If you shuffle a proper deck of cards then start dealing, the winning hand has already been decided (although the betting and who is left in at the end of the hand is set by us) I could be wrong but this is what i think he is saying. Are you just seeing the word 'FIXED' and flipping out like a select few do at every opportunity on this forum?? Have not seen Seagull agreeing with fix allegations before and i don't think he is doing it now. Peace. Airwalker. 
    Posted by AIRWALKER
    Loony toons was being facetious. He was just picking up on my use of the word fixed and pretending to be concerned about whether the deals are random or not.
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  • loonytoonsloonytoons
    edited January 2010
    In Response to Re: Conspiracy Theories:
    In Response to Re: Conspiracy Theories : Loony toons was being facetious. He was just picking up on my use of the word fixed and pretending to be concerned about whether the deals are random or not.
    Posted by Seagull158
    who you calling face summit, and i never pretend even when im pretending not to pretend
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  • unknown_usernameunknown_username
    edited January 2010
    In Response to Re: Conspiracy Theories:
    In Response to Re: Conspiracy Theories : who you calling face summit, and i never pretend even when im pretending not to pretend
    Posted by loonytoons
    Let's pretend you didn't say that.
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