What would you do in my spot?

tom_mull

Currently readless on villain in a $3.30 tournament on a 9 handed table

Blinds 15/30

Villain: UTG+3 (2980 in chips) 

Hero: Cutoff (4660 in chips) 

*** HOLE CARDS ***

Dealt to Hero [Jh Ad]

Villain: raises 60 to 90

Hero: calls 90

*** FLOP *** [Ts Kc 4h]

Villain: bets 90

Hero: calls 90

*** TURN *** [Ts Kc 4h] [Qc]

Villain: bets 202

Hero: raises 518 to 720

Villain: calls 518

*** RIVER *** [Ts Kc 4h Qc] [Tc]

Villain: bets 2080 and is all-in

Hero?

Matt237

Fold

Benchmark

Personally, I would have folded after the flop. I would expect the villian to have some showdown value already, and I have A high, with a draw. If I had proceeded, and seen the turn, I'd naturally be ready to bet. The villain's raise is worrying. No flushes, you have the nut straight, so he either is looking for sets, Quads or a full house, even. He also may have the same hand as me. Although not EXACTLY the same. What if he has Ac Jc ? His betting would make sense on a straight / flush draw. On the river, he has the nuts.

He really only has 4 possible hands:

Nothing
Ac Jc (Explains alomst everything)
Ax Jx (If he thinks YOU have Ac Jc, why go all-in ?)
TT (This also makes a lot of sense. The inital raise. The small flop raise to keep his customer. The big turn raise to scare off any drawing hands. All-in when he hits quads and the straight makes it there.)

I'm going with TT and a second choice of Ac Jc - Everyone forgets about players have the 'same' cards.

Matt237

KK/44 play same way too?

Benchmark

That's a fair point. KK is a contender. I think 44 might be a bit of a punt. But I guess that depends on the player. They could rep any hand, making the analysis void. I'm just thinking KK would've gone all in sooner. What do you think?

Matt237

I think A4cc and KT makes more sense than KK - KK probably gets it in on the turn, not sure about lower sets might keep any random bluffs in

Benchmark

KT makes sense too. I guess there's a whole lot of hurt to be had. The answer for me then is, when you've made your hand and it cant improve, but your opponents can, THAT'S the time to risk all the chips you are prepared to. So All-in after the turn or fold the river when it's not an obvious brick.

F_Ivanovic

In Response to Re: What would you do in my spot?:

KT makes sense too. I guess there's a whole lot of hurt to be had. The answer for me then is, when you've made your hand and it cant improve, but your opponents can, THAT'S the time to risk all the chips you are prepared to. So All-in after the turn or fold the river when it's not an obvious brick.
Posted by Benchmark

This kind of thinking won't get you very far. Shipping turn is way too big and if we wanted to bluff-raise this turn an AI sizing would be risking way too much on the bluff too. His raise size is completely fine and sets up a nice river shove on blank cards.

Also you mentioned about folding flop which is a bad decision - we may have the best hand but we have gutshot to the nuts, an over-card and position. If we are folding with this hand on the flop then villain can profit by c-betting any 2 cards. If villain has a small pair for example and we call flop, he's going to shut down on turn and we can take the pot away from him on either the turn and/or river.

As played, it seems like a pretty easy fold. Worst river card in the deck - we lose to lots of 2 pairs that are now FH's and sets that are FH's as well as any club draw.

Benchmark

I see your points, even if they are little too technical for me. Reading back, yes the post-flop fold is v. poor.

This may be naivety on my part, but it looks like we'd be risking chips we are able to win on the river card. Is that standard play, as it's not something I'd do ?

I'm still learning, so maybe it is.

BigBluster

Call.

There's 1845 in there so he's only made a pot bet. You have him well covered and will have 60BBs if you lose, easy enough to make a comeback.

Now let's rewind the hand.

There's 205 in on the flop and the villan bets 90. Is he really doing this with a set or two pair on a KT4 flop with straight draws staring him in the face? I doubt it.

On the turn he makes a half-pot bet on a KQT4 two clubs board, then just calls your raise. Is there any way he would do this with a set? No chance. This story isn't making sense.

On the river, he shoves (makes a pot bet) when the killer card comes. Yes, he could have backed into a flush or had QT, but the rest of the story doesn't hold for me. I'd call, and scoop the pot when the villain turns over TJ.

Or play on with my 60BBs.

cowhead

The bet sizing and run out in this hand says to me KT QT. Pretty much everything that beats us got there on river . Im folding here.