Bubble play

Lightwood

Very short stacked last night on the bubble and I jam with QQ, is this the right play in this situation?

Hand History #893499546 (01:22 05/04/2015)

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
BRAHER	Small blind		600.00	600.00	17575.00
bearlyther	Big blind		1200.00	1800.00	67675.00
	Your hole cards	Q Q
MrScorpio	Fold
Lightwood	All-in		7816.00	9616.00	0.00
BRAHER	Fold
bearlyther	Call		6616.00	16232.00	61059.00
bearlyther	Show	9 7
Lightwood	Show	Q Q
Flop
		3 6 4
Turn
		5
River
		2
bearlyther	Win	Straight to the 7	16232.00		77291.00

67Bhoys

With 6 BB, it is a definite shove, and you must have been delighted to see that you were well ahead, and that your opponent had no overcards.  You were a massive favourite, very unlucky.

Chris_Mc

Yes id say my chips are going in here all the time.

but also Depends on what the bubble is for i suppose,  was it a sat?

was there anyone shorter than you? (Probally not im guessing)

But me im probally almost definatly 99.9% sure id be all in here 100% of the time  

GREGHOGG

Hi Lightwood

Very unlucky with the result, but I cannot foresee a scenario where I wouldn't shove here with QQ on the bubble of a standard Mtt ( a sat could be different)

QQ is a monster in this situation. It is likely, based on the big blind's stack, that they will call you with a very wide range (as demonstrated) particularly if it is a BH.

However, you WANT them to call because a double up now might give you impetus to make the final table or even win.

Imo we should play mtts to finish as high as possible. However, if on the other hand, you want to secure a cash by not bubbling, then with 5 bigs (and no antes on sky) you potentially have enough chips to fold and min-cash. 

If you want to play this way (and i used to years ago) then this is your choice. And bubbling does hurt, I should know, but there is no reason not to shove QQ here just because you are afraid of bubbling. QQ here is the nuts! Go for it!

So to answer your question. Yes shoving QQ is the right play there. Don't be afraid of doing exactly the same thing another time because next time your hand might hold and you could win the mtt! 

Good Luck 

Lightwood

In Response to Re: Bubble play:

Hi Lightwood Very unlucky with the result, but I cannot foresee a scenario where I wouldn't shove here with QQ on the bubble of a standard Mtt ( a sat could be different) QQ is a monster in this situation. It is likely, based on the big blind's stack, that they will call you with a very wide range (as demonstrated) particularly if it is a BH. However, you WANT them to call because a double up now might give you impetus to make the final table or even win. Imo we should play mtts to finish as high as possible. However, if on the other hand, you want to secure a cash by not bubbling, then with 5 bigs (and no antes on sky) you potentially have enough chips to fold and min-cash.  If you want to play this way (and i used to years ago) then this is your choice. And bubbling does hurt, I should know, but there is no reason not to shove QQ here just because you are afraid of bubbling. QQ here is the nuts! Go for it! So to answer your question. Yes shoving QQ is the right play there. Don't be afraid of doing exactly the same thing another time because next time your hand might hold and you could win the mtt!  Good Luck 
Posted by GREGHOGG

Cheers, I remember kidgirly folded QQ twice during bubble but that was WSOP main event I think so completely different scenario. I guess the BH aspect also influenced bearlytheres call.

IDONKCALLU

qq  and u have 6 bigs  is this question a joke lol

 only way id fold qq with 6 bigs if its a sattelite and its on the bubble and u see 2 other guys with less then 4 bigs on another table

F_Ivanovic

BBV is here: https://www.skypoker.com/secure/poker/sky_lobby?action=show_static&page=poker_community_forums&plckForumPage=Forum&plckForumId=Cat%3a57795ac2-1793-4377-b4cf-e124b0f555f4Forum%3acdf513a4-4811-44dd-b210-c66d9e48e878

Also unless blinds just went up or you've just lost a pot to leave you this low then you really shouldn't be letting yourself get down to 6bb - we should be looking to ship into unopened pots when 8-10bb deep. If you're even thinking of folding QQ then my guess is that you are not being aggressive enough in shipping it in.

The only reason to be folding a strong hand would be if someone was on less than 1bb on another table and the min-cash was worthwhile to your bankroll. Even then, QQ in an unopened pot is too strong too fold for me.

bearlyther

this was on the bubble of the 55 bh remember the hand.  With your hand shoving is definately the correct play.  I also had a big stack at this point  and its only 5 bbs more for me to call.  So calling and losing didnt effect my stack much added in with the bounty i think its a clear call for me.  But yea nothing else you can do with that stack shoving is the only play.

Itsover4u

folding is negative chip ev and £ev.... shove everytime

cowhead

In Response to Re: Bubble play:

In Response to Re: Bubble play : Cheers, I remember kidgirly folded QQ twice during bubble but that was WSOP main event I think so completely different scenario. I guess the BH aspect also influenced bearlytheres call.
Posted by Lightwood

It shouldn't matter what tourney or buy in it is. The correct play is to get them in.

bearlyther

In Response to Re: Bubble play:

In Response to Re: Bubble play : It shouldn't matter what tourney or buy in it is. The correct play is to get them in.
Posted by cowhead

Disagree the buyin definately does matter if we should get it in or not.  If its a $20k min cash in the wsop main and on the pure bubble and with the size of our stack being so low then doubling isnt going to make our stack worth that much more.  Folding would definately be the correct play with qq assuming there is stacks around the same or shorter than us that can bust.  So would be a pretty big icm mistake in a tournament of that buyin to get it in.  

cowhead

In Response to Re: Bubble play:

In Response to Re: Bubble play : Disagree the buyin definately does matter if we should get it in or not.  If its a $20k min cash in the wsop main and on the pure bubble and with the size of our stack being so low then doubling isnt going to make our stack worth that much more.  Folding would definately be the correct play with qq assuming there is stacks around the same or shorter than us that can bust.  So would be a pretty big icm mistake in a tournament of that buyin to get it in.  
Posted by bearlyther

If it's a 10k buy in and 20k for min cashing it's an ICM mistake not to get it in as well.

Lambert180

In Response to Re: Bubble play:

In Response to Re: Bubble play : If it's a 10k buy in and 20k for min cashing it's an ICM mistake not to get it in as well.
Posted by cowhead

How do you work that out?

ICM is about assigning our stack a £££ value and seeing how the value of our stack changes in terms of £££ based on a decision.

If we can fold and cash 100% then we got 100% of $20,000

If we get in 5xBB on the bubble of WSOP ME, if called we'll have 80% v 2 unders/an underpair, 70% v 1 over card, flipping v AK and obv only 20% v AA/KK.

BUT doubling to 10xBB (especially in a comp with antes) has virtually zero impact on the value of our stack. In reality our chances of going deep/winning have virtually not changed in the slightest.

So atm, if we fold our stack is worth $20,000 give or take, if we double our stack is not worth $40,000, not even close, it's probably still worth about $20,000 except we'll have taken a risk for it to be worth $0

If it was miles from the bubble or just ITM then yeah 5xbb and QQ, easy get it in. But on the bubble where average stack is probably at least 50xBB, the value of doubling v the risk of busting is vv poor.

IDONKCALLU

ya wrong cowhead   10k buy in to min cash is 20k   and its on the bubble of the wsop and u have 6 bigs with qq does it make all that difference if we double up  or not its all about surviving at this stage

cowhead

You guys havent factored in that our hero is shoving and not calling off,  the times sb and bb fold in this spot is a lot.  As for doubling not making a difference I think thats flawed logic too. The strength of our hand, the likelyhood of 2 folds behind us and the favourable odds of winning this hand make this a definate shove in any tournament. If your folding your playing scared.

GELDY

In Response to Re: Bubble play:

In Response to Re: Bubble play : How do you work that out? ICM is about assigning our stack a £££ value and seeing how the value of our stack changes in terms of £££ based on a decision. If we can fold and cash 100% then we got 100% of $20,000 If we get in 5xBB on the bubble of WSOP ME, if called we'll have 80% v 2 unders/an underpair, 70% v 1 over card, flipping v AK and obv only 20% v AA/KK. BUT doubling to 10xBB (especially in a comp with antes) has virtually zero impact on the value of our stack. In reality our chances of going deep/winning have virtually not changed in the slightest. So atm, if we fold our stack is worth $20,000 give or take, if we double our stack is not worth $40,000, not even close, it's probably still worth about $20,000 except we'll have taken a risk for it to be worth $0 If it was miles from the bubble or just ITM then yeah 5xbb and QQ, easy get it in. But on the bubble where average stack is probably at least 50xBB, the value of doubling v the risk of busting is vv poor.
Posted by Lambert180

given how big the field is at the WSOP bubble you may well be right in your conclusion. 

however i disagree with the relevance of the bolded part. as you know from your recent 2nd place it is possible to win/FT tournies even if crippled beforehand. but to do that you have to win some double ups. and even though the first one might not be a very +ev event it is clearly a necessary part of the recovery. it makes the second double-up much more valuable and potentially game changing. so i think there is reason to consider shoving even if basic ICM seems to suggest otherwise.

on the otherhand, to counter cowheads arguement, it does matter what the tournie is. when playing events well above your usual level it isn´t about what happens on average, it´s about what happens to you this "one time". the perceived utility of a mincash may be almost as high as winning 3x more. in which case it´s an easy fold if there are a lot of smaller stacks, although you do kick yourself if you eventually bubble anyway.

cowhead

Question for Lambert about ICM.

With a flat payout structure like a Dym or a sat I assume ICM claculations are pretty straightforwars ans simple to work out.

My question is: If its a standard mtt like this one in op where we dont know the stack sizes of other players, when the next pay jump is, whats up top etc, can an ICM calculator give you an accurate figure based on your stack alone ?

I know the basics of ICM but my assumption is that an ICM claculator cant give you an accurate figure in this situation with the limited info we have.

Lambert180

It's easier/quicker to do with SnGs/DYMs etc cos payouts are flat and less runners.

You can do it for any tournament/situation, here's the software to use...

http://www.icmpoker.com/icmizer/

It would be a nightmare to work out exactly for something like the WSOP bubble cos you have to enter stacks and payouts so you'd have to enter like 800-900 people's chip counts and every single payout so we couldn't get an exact figure now for a WSOP bubble... but when you understand ICM you can make some quick rough guesses which is what I did above.

As it is, with 5bb, we're vv likely to cash if we just fold, and vvv unlikely to go much further than that, so our stack value is about $20k

With 10bb, we're still vv likely to cash if we fold from this point, and still vvv unlikely to go much further than a mincash, so our stack value is about $20k.

The only difference is in the 2nd case we'd taken a risk on the bubble for our stack to be worth $0. Even if doubling increased the value of our stack to $21k (I think it would be less), is it worth busting 5-10% of the time and getting 0 to try and get $1k extra? I don't know what payouts are like exactly but if say 800 cash for $20k, it's probably at least another 100-150 people that need to bust for us to get anywhere near even $25-$30k. The payouts will be so so flat, we'd have to go realllly deep to get much more than $20k and the chances of doing that with 10bb are vvvv slim.

I know I spun up 2xbb in the UKOPS main, but I was insanely lucky to do so. Once I spun up to like 20bb, it was playing as normal, I played well and still needed a fair bit of luck on my side as you do in any MTT, but my first allin with 2bb was with A5dd and I got called in 3 spots, can't remember the hands that called but I was probably like 75%+ to bust right there