What to do: overpair on the flop...

Sky_Dave

We're playing 25/50p and have been at the table for a couple of orbits. We've literally not made a bean and the table looks to playing pretty orthodox - no maniacs, no fish, just some 'alright' poker. 

The player we're tangling with here is also new to the table too but you do have a little history with them. From what we've seen in previous (and quite recent) sessions, they're a better than average player who is capable of putting his opponents on ranges of hands. Our experience is limited - about 300 hands or so as a guesstimate - but we've got them down as a decent tight-aggressive player.

Here are the stack sizes:

CO: £47.75
BTN: £50.95
SB: £62.60
BB: £52.75
UTG: £51.25
UTG+1: £48.25
UTG+2: £50.00
Hero (MP1) : £50.00
MP2: £31.55

Pre Flop: (£0.75) Hero is MP1 with 9h-9d
UTG calls £0.50, 1 fold, UTG+2 raises to £2, Hero calls £2, 6 folds

Flop: (£5.25) 3c 3d 4d (2 players)
UTG+2 bets £3, Hero raises to £10, UTG+2 raises to £48 all in

Spew, as the kids like to say. OK, so we have an overpair to the board and we've decided to take a flop pre rather than just jamming it in there and hoping Villain has AK. What do you do with the 9-9 here? If you're folding, how good an overpair do you need before you consider calling? How much does your previous history with a player like this affect your decision? Yes 300 hands or so isn't a big sample size, but it's still information nonetheless, right?

scotty77

As this is a FR I think this is a fold. If he is TAG, then his range from UTG+2 is gonna be pretty narrow.

Sky_Dave

In Response to Re: What to do: overpair on the flop...:

As this is a FR I think this is a fold. If he is TAG, then his range from UTG+2 is gonna be pretty narrow.
Posted by scotty77

How big a hand do you need here Scotty? Obviously not withstanding the whole "Jacks. but if I had them I wouldn't have flatted preflop" argument. 

beakyp

In Response to Re: What to do: overpair on the flop...:

In Response to Re: What to do: overpair on the flop... : How big a hand do you need here Scotty? Obviously not withstanding the whole "Jacks. but if I had them I wouldn't have flatted preflop" argument. 
Posted by Sky_Dave

Too big a range of hands here that you are behind too Dave....7 Pocket Pairs, Big slick suited possibly (bad at maths), besides given your experience of his game i would want to settle in and see some more showdowns with this fella without doing by bankroll in on this hand.
I say all this but the maths are simple, if im focused and sober i would prob fold, if been drinking and speculative i call....simples!

Tell us the correct move Dave?

BlackFish3

I personally would be laying down up to JJ if i flatted preflop. If i reraised pre and got flatted then i would get it in with JJ+ on that flop. After flatting with the 99 you dont know where you are but are reraising his c bet i think you have the answer so thats why i would pass.

yb

I can't see him making this play with 88 or lower so the only hands we are in ok shape against are Ad-Kd / Ad-Qd. Even then we're flipping. More likely being a TAG he has an overpair so I fold. 

Dudeskin8

I probably just fold the 9's here, if I had QQ+ I would call but JJ and less not for me

N1CK

by the way you played this hand your opponent can defo put you on 1 of 2 hands either a flushdraw or a med pocket pair, id be putting him on A-,J,Q.K d  and 10 10 +  i think i would need QQ+ to make this call

Sky_Dave

All interesting stuff here so far. I'll let you know what went down soon. Another question to add to the mix: would any of you flatted the flop here?

scotty77

I think QQ min here.

Either way considering your reads hes either got you crushed or he has a hand with very decent equity. 

Yeah I woulda been tempted to flat flop, keeps the pot nice and small  but thats only cos I rarely play FR and everything scares me.

LadyFingrs

Its a fold, but because of this you shouldn't be raising the flop.

yb

I like the raise on the flop fwiw, it's better to ask the question then whilst the pot is still small rather than call all the way if the turn and river brick thinking the villain has overcards. 

dantb10

I dont think you'd be comfortable calling with any over pairs! Obv apart from aa if you hold the a hearts, which narrows his range abit!

He's either trying to protect his hand or has a massive draw!

Either way ur behind imo.

LadyFingrs

In Response to Re: What to do: overpair on the flop...:

I like the raise on the flop fwiw, it's better to ask the question then whilst the pot is still small rather than call all the way if the turn and river brick thinking the villain has overcards. 
Posted by yb

You need to get out of this mindset of "asking questions", because here, you're raise/folding 20BB's when you could flat and widen your range so much in his eyes, that his 2 barreling range is going to widen also. And yes, sometimes he has an over pair higher than nine,s and we have to c/c, c/c, c/f, but he's going to have alot more air and some worse value hands in his turn betting range way more often than he has better made hands, so surely thats better than raising the flop to "find out if he's got a hand" and completely cutting off all the EV we get from his bluffing range?

yb

In Response to Re: What to do: overpair on the flop...:

In Response to Re: What to do: overpair on the flop... : You need to get out of this mindset of "asking questions", because here, you're raise/folding 20BB's when you could flat and widen your range so much in his eyes, that his 2 barreling range is going to widen also. And yes, sometimes he has an over pair higher than nine,s and we have to c/c, c/c, c/f, but he's going to have alot more air and some worse value hands in his turn betting range way more often than he has better made hands, so surely thats better than raising the flop to "find out if he's got a hand" and completely cutting off all the EV we get from his bluffing range?
Posted by LadyFingrs

I see your point, I just think we need more knowledge on our opponent if we're going to do this as if he's a fairly tight player there is a good chance his 2 barrel bluffing range is going to be very thin. And if we don't think he'll fire a second barrel I don't see much point in flatting tbh as we are just giving him a free card if we're ahead on the flop. I like flatting a lot more on a 6 seater when his raising range from early position is going to be a lot wider, and in his eyes so will our calling range.

LadyFingrs

In Response to Re: What to do: overpair on the flop...:

In Response to Re: What to do: overpair on the flop... : I see your point, I just think we need more knowledge on our opponent if we're going to do this as if he's a fairly tight player there is a good chance his 2 barrel bluffing range is going to be very thin. And if we don't think he'll fire a second barrel I don't see much point in flatting tbh as we are just giving him a free card if we're ahead on the flop. I like flatting a lot more on a 6 seater when his raising range from early position is going to be a lot wider, and in his eyes so will our calling range.
Posted by yb

But this is a logic clash, and actually, and argument FOR flatting the flop.

If he's not 2 barreling with a bluff often enough to call the turn, then why not flat the flop and fold the turn.

Then we can fold losing £2 rather than £10?

N1CK

In Response to Re: What to do: overpair on the flop...:

In Response to Re: What to do: overpair on the flop... : But this is a logic clash, and actually, and argument FOR flatting the flop. If he's not 2 barreling with a bluff often enough to call the turn, then why not flat the flop and fold the turn. Then we can fold losing £2 rather than £10?
Posted by LadyFingrs

i totally agree by rearaising the flop the the hands turned into a bluff to a repop, couldnt you use that saved money to call the turn to catch bluffs? in the long term would this be more profitable?