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advice aggression pre JJ

SamZed19SamZed19
edited May 2015 in The Poker Clinic
PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalancewildnwackySmall blind £0.02£0.02£6.21staceiBig blind £0.04£0.06£1.00 Your hole cardsJJ   CDAWAll-in £2.05£2.11£0.00bernie1968Fold    SamZed19Call £2.05£4.16£2.03bobbyboy33Fold    wildnwackyAll-in £6.21£10.37£0.00staceiFold    SamZed19Fold    wildnwackyUnmatched bet £4.18£6.19£4.18wildnwackyShowAK   CDAWShowK3   Flop  8AQ   Turn  7   River  5   wildnwackyWinPair of Aces£5.72 £9.9
without being outcome oreintated, was this the right way to play this pre? very confused on what the best play is here
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Comments

  • SlipwaterSlipwater
    edited April 2015
    Unless you have reason to believe the guy is shoving fifty big blinds with tens or worse, it's a fold.

    And even if you do think he is a loose cannon, it's still a fold.

    So, yeah. Fold.
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  • HiJokerHiJoker
    edited April 2015
    Or, if you are quite fond of money, just ignore all the advice you see above this post.
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  • The_Don90The_Don90
    edited April 2015
    dont think ive ever putting £2 in and folding to £6 so i call. 
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  • SlipwaterSlipwater
    edited April 2015
    In Response to Re: advice aggression pre JJ:
    dont think ive ever putting £2 in and folding to £6 so i call. 
    Posted by The_Don90
    Oops. My bad.

    I meant the initial call of £2.05 that he made. I wouldn't be doing that in the first place.
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  • hhyftrftdrhhyftrftdr
    edited April 2015
    In Response to Re: advice aggression pre JJ:
    Unless you have reason to believe the guy is shoving fifty big blinds with tens or worse, it's a fold. And even if you do think he is a loose cannon, it's still a fold. So, yeah. Fold.
    Posted by Slipwater
    This is never a fold in a million years!
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  • shakinacesshakinaces
    edited April 2015

    Ha I thought I was a massive nit until I read comments above! :)

    Unless you have notes on this guy, because there does seem to be a bunch of less experienced players that seem to open shove premiums and not much else, then I think I raise all-in.

    Can't really fold if anyone else shoves behind us (again, unless we have notes that the re-shover is a super-nit that will only do so with AA/KK) so may as well shove the cash in now imo

    Also, the guy that does re-shove has overplayed all sorts of hands in my experience... so even more of a call... even though he sort of had it this time.

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  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH
    edited April 2015
    In Response to Re: advice aggression pre JJ:
    Unless you have reason to believe the guy is shoving fifty big blinds with tens or worse, it's a fold. And even if you do think he is a loose cannon, it's still a fold. So, yeah. Fold.
    Posted by Slipwater
    Do you call with QQ? AK? 
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  • SlipwaterSlipwater
    edited April 2015
    In Response to Re: advice aggression pre JJ:
    In Response to Re: advice aggression pre JJ : Do you call with QQ? AK? 
    Posted by DOHHHHHHH
    Probably with queens.

    Bear in mind, my initial post was based on calling the first raise to £2.05. With three players behind I don't like the call.

    Once you're in it's different.
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  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH
    edited April 2015

    Yeh, I think the first call is much easier than the 2nd, both cost £2 but the ranges of the respective players are so different, although I guess the 'price' is too, so they're both v easy :) 

    What kind of range do you assign the initial shover readless to justify folding JJ?
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  • The_Don90The_Don90
    edited April 2015
    In Response to Re: advice aggression pre JJ:
    In Response to Re: advice aggression pre JJ : Probably with queens. Bear in mind, my initial post was based on calling the first raise to £2.05. With three players behind I don't like the call. Once you're in it's different.
    Posted by Slipwater
    the call of the initial 2.05 is probably the easiest call in the history of calls readless at nl4 im giving them a range of anything from 23o-AA with everything in between. Alot more of those hands are crushed by jacks more than the hands that crush us. As for behind, if your paranoid with someone waking up with a genuine hand behind then thats a leak. 
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  • Phantom66Phantom66
    edited April 2015
    Agree with the TheDon - aipf at that levels 9/10 times is a complete maniac who shoves any 2. 1/10 its a tight player on a loose table who thinks there is a fair chance of a call and has AA/KK. Obviously may have reads from earlier play to help decide which but has to be a call readless (unless you think the shover may be unemployed of course).
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  • SlipwaterSlipwater
    edited April 2015
    Is fifty big blinds really a call with three people still to act?
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  • The_Don90The_Don90
    edited April 2015
    In Response to Re: advice aggression pre JJ:
    Is fifty big blinds really a call with three people still to act?
    Posted by Slipwater
    whats 3 people still to act got to do with anything? what is their range, so far between them they've been forced to put 1.5bb in the pot, the average time they have 3 hands they're folding and are as a result almost irrelevant in the hand
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  • SlipwaterSlipwater
    edited April 2015
    In Response to Re: advice aggression pre JJ:
    In Response to Re: advice aggression pre JJ : whats 3 people still to act got to do with anything? what is their range, so far between them they've been forced to put 1.5bb in the pot, the average time they have 3 hands they're folding and are as a result almost irrelevant in the hand
    Posted by The_Don90
    I am equating it to when I play 1/2 cash on the weekends, and if someone shoved £100 into the middle when I have JJ and there are three people behind me, it's a fold. I'm not saying it's an easy fold, but I don't really want to be flipping for fifty bigs.
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  • SamZed19SamZed19
    edited May 2015
    wow im glad this started a discussion! very mixed answers which is interesting. i think i probably did the worse play in the long run, should have either folded to 1st all in (bit nitty at low levels i think now) or shoved all in raised myself. although it is still a very awkward hand
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  • HiJokerHiJoker
    edited May 2015
    I'm not sure how anyone is contemplating folding at any point
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  • The_Don90The_Don90
    edited May 2015
    In Response to Re: advice aggression pre JJ:
    In Response to Re: advice aggression pre JJ : I am equating it to when I play 1/2 cash on the weekends, and if someone shoved £100 into the middle when I have JJ and there are three people behind me, it's a fold. I'm not saying it's an easy fold, but I don't really want to be flipping for fifty bigs.
    Posted by Slipwater
    So some random guy sits down shoves 50 bigs 2 have two people behind with undefined hands and your folding becasue you might ( MIGHT ) be flipping or crushed. Forgetting that if you are open shover has a wide range, and if we're flipping we're getting 3/1 on said flip which is a great price and +ev to take. 
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  • F_IvanovicF_Ivanovic
    edited May 2015
    In Response to Re: advice aggression pre JJ:
    Is fifty big blinds really a call with three people still to act?
    Posted by Slipwater
    You do realise that with 3 opponents left we are only going to run into QQ-AA 4.3% of the time? :)

    Lets assume that players behind us are only calling with QQ-AA and that we fold if we get shipped on by another player

    Then, when we call we are risking £2.05 to win a pot of £4.16. Lets assume we are up against a 30% range (which seems reasonable giving the stakes + what villain shipped with) - against that range, we have ~ 68% equity. That means we will win £2.83 on avg by calling and a profit of 0.78.

    Dividing 100 by 4.3 we get 23.3 so will round down to 23 for simplicity in calculations.

    That means that 22/23 times we will win 0.78 and the 23rd time we will run into QQ-AA and lose our £2.05.

    22x0.78 = 17.16

    Take that away from the £2.05 lost the 1 in 23 times we run into QQ+ and we still have a profit of £15.11 were we to run the hand 23 times. That's a profit of £0.65.7 on average every time we call.

    Lets assume we don't fold to the shove from villain and call and run into QQ-AA. Then we are risking £6.21 (am assuming we have villain covered for worst case scenario even tho i don't think we do?) to win a pot of £14.53. In the first pot, we'll have 17% equity for a share of £6.21 so that's about £1.05. In the 2nd bigger pot of £8.32 we will have £1.5 giving a total amount of £2.55 - and a loss of £3.66 on the hand. 

    Even in this scenario, we have would make £13.5 if we ran the hand 23 times and 58.7p per hand.

    So, regardless of what happens behind us we are always making money by making the call here. We can unexploitably make money by calling 2nd villains shove but we can also exploitably fold if we believe their range is only QQ-AA. 

    Personally, I would just call it off vs 2nd villain. I think we'll see a range of QQ+, AK, AQs and maybe a couple of combos of TT vs an average villain and against that range we have 40% equity (and 33.8% in the 3 way main pot) Not going to do any more calculations but I'm pretty sure that if we did then calling it off would be better than folding giving we've already put in at least 1/3 of our stack-size (again can't see Hero's stack size, so basing it on villains - it looks like Hero might only have £4 something tho, in which case we've already put in 1/2 our stack) so we easily have required equity to call it off.
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  • SlipwaterSlipwater
    edited May 2015
    That's the last time I give you a lift, Wes ;)
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  • HENDRIK62HENDRIK62
    edited May 2015
    In Response to Re: advice aggression pre JJ:
    That's the last time I give you a lift, Wes ;)
    Posted by Slipwater

    If the average request for a lift is answered 50%+ (dependant on notes regarding villains answering range) and a positive response of 50% plus in any given calendar year, even at the bottom of his range we require alternative arrangements  only 75% of the time! even taking telephone costing into the equation this is +EV

    Make the call.

    Oh and definitely call with JJ.  ;-)

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  • F_IvanovicF_Ivanovic
    edited May 2015
    In Response to Re: advice aggression pre JJ:
    That's the last time I give you a lift, Wes ;)
    Posted by Slipwater
    haha, love shakin's reply above too!! At least you now know if you get dealt JJ and someone jam's in 50bb's in a live cash game you can happily call with 3 players behind you!! :)
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  • SlipwaterSlipwater
    edited May 2015
    In Response to Re: advice aggression pre JJ:
    In Response to Re: advice aggression pre JJ : haha, love shakin's reply above too!! At least you now know if you get dealt JJ and someone jam's in 50bb's in a live cash game you can happily call with 3 players behind you!! :)
    Posted by F_Ivanovic
    All right, so if JJ is a call... what is a fold?
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  • F_IvanovicF_Ivanovic
    edited May 2015
    In Response to Re: advice aggression pre JJ:
    In Response to Re: advice aggression pre JJ : All right, so if JJ is a call... what is a fold?
    Posted by Slipwater
    I'm not sure exactly - a lot depends on the range you put villain on. Here in nl4 we can put villain on a 30% range fairly comfortably - at 100NL live then maybe we're up against a 10 or 15% range then we could be as low as a 57.8% favourite which would still make it a profitable call. AK is similar equity and +ev (also reduced combos of AA + KK plus flipping vs QQ mean we have better equity when someone else gets involved) TT and we're down to 53%..... which although +ev on it's own, I'm not sure if the times we run into a better hand from behind us make it a fold. Seems pretty close.

    With reads that villain is tilting and/or a maniac we can increase the likelyhood of villain having a wider range where TT, 99 and even 88 in some cases becomes a call. Can even get into weird situations where we can potentially get a villain behind us to fold a better pair because they see us calling 50bbs and assume with TT/JJ they're either flipping or crushed (so fold) only for us to turn up as wide as AT/AJ and 88/99 knowing we are 60% vs villain's 50% shipping range.

    Also when we have a table maniac, it's important not to just think in the mentality of "waiting for a better spot" - when 6 handed, we can't always do that because they could easily lose their stack to another player at the table. 

    It's high variance play, but sometimes we just have to GII vs these players with a less than premium (but dominating) holding. As long as we've got the bankroll for it, then there's no problem. 
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  • rancidrancid
    edited May 2015
    In Response to Re: advice aggression pre JJ:
    As long as we've got the bankroll for it, then there's no problem. 
    Posted by F_Ivanovic

    this


    but don't call just shove it in

    leaving 50bb on the tables is terrible

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