win rate at the 25/50 spin up tables

bluffulot6

hi,

Could anyone tell me what a good win rate would be at the new spin up tables at

25/50

50/1

1/2

i've been playing them just under 1 week and I think i'm +EV


many thanks in adavance

CraigSG1

You would need to play over 10,000 hands to get any where close to a win rate calculation and I suspect you would need close to 50,000 to get an accurate one as these tables will have so much more variance to them with there being a lot more short stack play. 

This is a format more geared towards those players who know there equity calculations inside and out if your looking to make money from these tables.

Lambert180

While stack depths remain low a very good win rate would be breaking even!

bluffulot6

In Response to Re: win rate at the 25/50 spin up tables:

While stack depths remain low a very good win rate would be breaking even!
Posted by Lambert180

so it's impossible to make any money from these games???

KingBowl

In Response to Re: win rate at the 25/50 spin up tables:

In Response to Re: win rate at the 25/50 spin up tables : so it's impossible to make any money from these games???
Posted by bluffulot6

In the long run these games are unbeatable due to rake, you're better off playing deeper games which are beatable and will allow you to improve as a player

alex1229

I'd tend to agree with all these comments that its unbeatable

bluffulot6

me too won close to £600 25/50 and 50/1  in first two weeks then lost £400 this week....so still in profit but dont think a profit long term.....The rake is also a killer

alex1229

Oppps, i meant to say i'd tend to DISAGREE, that you cant make a profit on this. You just need to leave yourself a few bullets behind, because as its Poker if you run bad it quickly catches up. 

Lambert180

In Response to Re: win rate at the 25/50 spin up tables:

Oppps, i meant to say i'd tend to DISAGREE, that you cant make a profit on this. You just need to leave yourself a few bullets behind, because as its Poker if you run bad it quickly catches up. 
Posted by alex1229

It's not about bankroll management, I think you could have a million BIs for the level and u still wont win longterm. The rake taken is huge relative to the pots u win at those stack depths, and cos of the stack depths, that huge chunk of rake is taken almost every single hand.

I aint looked into in depth like, that's just my instinct, I could be wrong, but even if you could win, edges would be tinyyyyy and swings would be huuuuge.

shakinaces

I did see on another forum a while back that someone had squeezed out a win rate of 1bb/100 on similar games over a meaningful sample size but:

a) the rake is higher on Sky, so I assume that at least writes-off the 1bb and makes breakeven the best you can hope for (and profit from earning rakeback)

b) the swings on the graph made the best rollercoasters in the world look flat and dull... you need balls of steel and to grind LOTS to push through what will be horrific downswings.

Not to say that they aren't fun and worth a place as somewhere to have a gamble and let off some steam, but just don't expect to get rich from playing them!

mrleemr1

Depending on how many regs there are in game will depend on long term profit.

If there is 5 regs and you at the table there will be no edge you can push enough to be profitable. Its tough enough deep stacked.
But yes if you make sure that you have the right opponents you will be able to make a profit at this stake, and indeed a very good one as the bad players tend to be very bad

24Caliber

Hi guys,  I've been playing them for a whale and I think I have been winning but also sometimes I lose.  My entitled value is around 2.7 over every 100, based on my expeariance instinct.  

I think the best stratogy is to start with a not big but small amount like 5 or 10$ and try to win a big amount like 50 or a 100$, then you know you are on a lucky streak and can keep going to win more cheips, also there is an and advuntage if you have a big stack so it is good to play lots of hands and tri to win and to play for big hands and gamble more because if you hit then you can win bigger more.  There is a lot you can win...many 100s $  

If you have a big amount of cheips then you have an advuntage over the people with smaller amount of cheips.

FeelGroggy

In Response to Re: win rate at the 25/50 spin up tables:

Hi guys,  I've been playing them for a whale and I think I have been winning but also sometimes I lose.  My entitled value is around 2.7 over every 100, based on my expeariance instinct.   I think the best stratogy is to start with a not big but small amount like 5 or 10$ and try to win a big amount like 50 or a 100$, then you know you are on a lucky streak and can keep going to win more cheips, also there is an and advuntage if you have a big stack so it is good to play lots of hands and tri to win and to play for big hands and gamble more because if you hit then you can win bigger more.  There is a lot you can win...many 100s $   If you have a big amount of cheips then you have an advuntage over the people with smaller amount of cheips.
Posted by 24Caliber

Take note ladies and gentleman, great high level strategy on display here by one of the spin ups regs. I'm sure i speak for all of us when I say thankyou for such great free info

The_Fishhh

doesnt matter whos in the game , the rake is too high in these games at lower stakes to make anything but a loss long term

fi33er

interesting post nice 1!

I have just been playing spin 25/50 for 3 weeks now. I have done well most days, I started with £140 and after 2 weeks got up to £360.

In that period I did have one day where i lost 30 buy ins. The next day I started to get it back and ended up with £360.

Yesterday I got absolutely turned over, I lost £355! I couldn't win a hand even with the nuts. I had the worst run of cards possible.

I have just bought back in today, and am a crossroads as to stick with the spin or head back to cash games. 

I feel gutted today because i bought in for £200  back in september and have been puttting lots of hours in to try and make some profit. I have lost about £500 on tourneys in that period, so I am actuaslly still up from the cash and spin as that buy in has paid for all of the tourneys. 

I HATE THOSE DAYS WHEN SKY JUST DUMPS ON YOU!

Nuggy962

In Response to Re: win rate at the 25/50 spin up tables:

interesting post nice 1! I have just been playing spin 25/50 for 3 weeks now. I have done well most days, I started with £140 and after 2 weeks got up to £360. In that period I did have one day where i lost 30 buy ins. The next day I started to get it back and ended up with £360. Yesterday I got absolutely turned over, I lost £355! I couldn't win a hand even with the nuts. I had the worst run of cards possible. I have just bought back in today, and am a crossroads as to stick with the spin or head back to cash games.  I feel gutted today because i bought in for £200  back in september and have been puttting lots of hours in to try and make some profit. I have lost about £500 on tourneys in that period, so I am actuaslly still up from the cash and spin as that buy in has paid for all of the tourneys.  I HATE THOSE DAYS WHEN SKY JUST DUMPS ON YOU!
Posted by fi33er

Still.......... Just sigh"........

Very glad sky, or anyone else for that matter, has never "dump on you"

THEGRID

Unfortunately these games are just for fun and it's impossible to beat them long term. Worth a bash If you just fancy a gamble though. More like roullette than poker really  

TeddyBloat

Has anyone done an analysis on whether the games are beatable?

There are many variants that have been slated as being unbeatable roulette games when it been proven that are gold mines.

Has anyone looked at what win rates are needed to beat rake and tried to assess just how unbeatable they are, if at all?